A Complex Predicament

I didn't know where to put this
but part 2 discusses David Holmgren

http://shift-magazine.org/magazine/a-complex-predicament-part-1-the-energy-predicament/
A Complex Predicament: How Our Energy, Economic and Ecological Systems are Connected: Feedback loops, the Jevons Paradox, and the three End Games

http://shift-magazine.org/magazine/a-complex-predicament-part-ii-the-economic-predicament/
Should We Try to Precipitate Economic Collapse to Mitigate Runaway Climate Change?

http://shift-magazine.org/magazine/a-complex-predicament-part-iii-the-ecological-predicament/
If Runaway Climate Change is Now Inevitable, Is There Any Rational Response?

my only comment is
If these systems are so complicated and interrelated
then how can they be so sure of "climate change"?

"Climate scientists are, of necessity, experts in understanding complex systems. " lol

There may be some aspects that Dave Pollard has not considered (or maybe he has !). Re: the debt, I'd suggest adding the views of Stephen Zarlenga (www.monetary.org) and the MMT economists (for starters, the national debt can be paid off simply by taking money-creation power away from for-profit banks... this process was described in "The Chicago Plan" in the 30's etc... see Wiki). Re: climate change.. yes too real, but the NTE'ers (Near Term Extinction ... Guy McPherson etc.), and Clive Hamilton are not actual climate scientists, and the real scientists have something to say about their assertions... see the interesting discussion at Fractal Planet, etc. And I know it's not PC in some circles to suggest that there are energy sources other than fossil fuel (our own PHAS, etc), but there are... although none that can sustain 'civilization', I suspect. And, regarding that 'crash', 'A Paradise Built in Hell' presents an important historic perspective.

What I'm suggesting is that we check ALL potentials and possibilities (many that were proven feasible in the past)...that we get ALL the facts before we 'decide' what the future will be. But I think that we have enough information to be Boy Scouts...prepared :)

And I've long felt that storytelling is the most powerful way to get ideas across. Marketers know full well that changing the "picture' that consumers 'see' changes the consumer! And stories paint pictures. I keep hoping for stories that present the picture of what humans really want ... health, comfort, security, companionship, shared work and cooperation, creativity, importance, etc.... can be (and has been!) provided without 'civilization'. Marketers have very assiduously convinced us that we cannot find it without buying their product.... a lie if every there was one. In the meantime I'm grateful for the documentarians who show us, in stories, the truth about climate change, peak oil, and the economy. I'm looking forward to David Pollard's novel :)

btw a pet peeve...a picture I'd like to see presented more often, in one way or another, is Jesus' dichotomy... God on one side vs Wealth on the other. His story of The Two Masters makes it perfectly clear that our 'supposed-to-be-Christian' culture has not seen this picture often enough ;) OK... what other pictures?

PS - regarding a 'picture/story' of the preferable possible... ala Dave Pollard's upcoming novel... I ran across this... kinda supports Paul's goal of avoiding 'blaming/ain't it awful' and promoting 'the good we can do'... and I'm with the 'permaculture is ethical' side :)

Haidt demonstrated that exposure to stories about moral beauty (the opposite of moral disgust) cause a common set of responses, including warm, loving feelings, calmness, and a desire to become a better person. Haidt called the emotion "moral elevation," as a tribute to Thomas Jefferson, who had described the emotion in detail in a letter discussing the benefits of reading great literature

Neil deGrasse Tyson recommends preparing for change :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJhbQIlu4mk

Nancy

> marketers... convinced us... buying their product...

Just a quick response/impression. Very general and simplified. That sounds to me like a special case of the "2nd son syndrome" - ie. the first son inherits (one way or another) the lion's share of wealth (however you wish to define that) to dole out and use as he pleases, the 2nd son has to make do and get out and create his own one way or another. Regardless of the many additional factors present it seems to me that some very real form of this situation will exist where ever there is value to be distributed. IOW, this is an inevitable situation everywhere always. Marketers are 2nd sons and will always be with us in some form causing change and building their own kingdom even though they have nothing of intrinsic value themselves to build on. And they will always be pretty successful - for them the stakes are high and are more important than a "nice world". Even enlightening the whole populace won't eliminate 2nd sons.

I don't believe that makes a bad end inevitable. I don't believe 2nd sons are evil - they are the essence of evolution, change, exploration. I do believe it helps to try to be aware of the dynamics that may underlie our world. Improves our chances of being effective.


Rufus

duane hennon wrote:

my only comment is
If these systems are so complicated and interrelated
then how can they be so sure of "climate change"?

"Climate scientists are, of necessity, experts in understanding complex systems. " lol

One piece of an answer to this is that it is precisely because of the complexity that they can be sure. For example, it is established that the Antarctic glaciers are melting. We do not need to understand every piece of the complex system to recognize that this is a symptom of climate change. The only thing that can be responsible for this event is climate change. Now, while it is evidence of climate change, it does not give us any evidence as to what is responsible for the changing climate - that is another question and one which I do not believe has any one answer. It's a complex system, with many elements combining to produce the end result.