Who or What Will Inherit the Cropland?

I came across this quote from another thread:
"There are more farmers over the age of 70 than under 35...  
Over 90% of farmers have no plans for who will take over when they retire... "

Which got me thinking. I'm sure most of these farmers are not bending over double-reach beds all day long and harvesting for a farmer's market CSA. The vast majority of them are likely tending to thousands and thousands of acres with equipment and machinery worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. So, what's the plan to reappropriate all that land? If there is no real farmer to inherit that land, what happens? Invasion of the robots?

That's the million dollar question & the purpose of permies PEP program. Have you discovered this process yet?

https://permies.com/f/178/

https://permies.com/wiki/skip-pep-bb

Over 90% of farmers have no plans for who will take over when they retire... "

I'd have to say I don't believe this part of the statement.   Every piece of ground in my area has half a dozen or more people who would rent it today if it became available.  Just because a owner hasn't admitted who will get their place doesn't mean they don't have someone in mind.  

It is my hope that many of the small farmers over the age of 70 will join the SKIP

Scott said, "I came across this quote from another thread:
"There are more farmers over the age of 70 than under 35...  
Over 90% of farmers have no plans for who will take over when they retire...

I am not sure how it is in your country of Peru but for the US...

Scott said, "The vast majority of them are likely tending to thousands and thousands of acres with equipment and machinery worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. So, what's the plan to reappropriate all that land?

Based on this quote here is the plan:

Late last year, Eric O’Keefe was researching a mysterious recent purchase of 14,500 acres of prime Washington state farmland. His magazine, The Land Report, tracks major land transactions and produces an annual list of the 100 biggest US landowners.

Soon they came back with the answer: The Louisiana company was acting on behalf of Cascade Investment LLC, the secretive investment firm that manages most of the huge fortune belonging to Bill Gates.

The real reason why Bill Gates is now the US’ biggest farmland owner

Just my personal observations:

1). Land near an urban area.  
This land will quickly get subdivided into housing, commonly with 1/4-1/3 acre lots and McMansions or be turned into commercial space.  Either way it becomes a part of the urban sprawl (this is what happened near my home town).

2). Land far from an urban area.
This land will likely be purchased and/or leased by other farms trying to expand their operations.  There is a growing number of large farms exceeding 1000 acres, some far exceeding that number.  This is what happened to my grandparents land.

Again, just my experiences.

Eric

My kids don’t have a lot of interest in the farm.  It is really all they have known after all, and they want to do other things.  Doesn’t really bother me too much.  My hope is that some energetic young couple ends up with the place and builds on what I have started.  Worst case scenario is some chainsaw happy person goes to town on my trees.  Oh well, you can’t take it with you…

Most farm land has gotten so expensive that only corporations or the wealthy can afford it. Industrial agriculture will continue on it's path of consolidating into ever larger farms with fewer humans. At some point it will fail. Hopefully transitioning away won't be too horrible. Most of the land will be degraded so it will take dedicated people who take care of the land to recover it.

Eric Hanson wrote:Just my personal observations:


2). Land far from an urban area.
This land will likely be purchased and/or leased by other farms trying to expand their operations.  There is a growing number of large farms exceeding 1000 acres, some far exceeding that number.  This is what happened to my grandparents land.

Eric

But who are the farmers? Who will be physically present to run the machines or whatever? The permies crew isn't exactly out there getting employed by Bill Gates' shell company to tear up GMO fields and put in Mark Shephard style systems; or themselves buying up hundreds of thousands of hectares. As far as I'm aware, the permies folks aren't really looking to run hundred thousand dollar combines out in the corn patch.

Based on your response, I guess the original statement I quoted is BS. There really are younger people that are chomping at the bit to acquire even larger land holdings to run even larger machines.

Scott,

I personally know of a couple of young couples trying to find land to start their own farm operations.  Truth be told, there are some farmland owners that would rather sell to a relatively young couple trying to get their start.  Unfortunately. Those are increasingly fewer and further between.

On the other side of the extreme are the corporate farms that own tens of thousands of acres and employ farmhands to do all the labor.  I get slightly depressed at the thought of these operations.

I suppose I would love to see the extreme opposite end of the spectrum.  It would have been interesting to see my grandparents 500 acres of mostly small grain crop land in Minnesota be turned into something like 5 100 acre mini mixed Permie type farms.  But that is a fantasy of an event that has already happened.

Eric

I've lived in large-scale ag areas of northwestern U.S. most of my life. I have to say the trend in land ownership is not uplifting. Some farmers do cultivate younger partners to take over their operations. Some retirees lease their land to younger growers who need to expand to compete. Most of the land I saw exchange hands from older growers, however, has gone to large corporate entities. Often those are absentee landlords like Bill Gates, often corporations like ConAgra, Simplot, or in central Washington the LDS church, a religious group called Hutterian Brethren, and large "family farms" that control tens of thousands of acres.

We lucked into buying a house on three acres of fantastic soil in long-term rotational cattle grazing that we are converting to garden and food forest. It was split off by the rancher/owner at retirement age because he wanted to become a snow-bird living in his 5th wheel, ranching during summer, living in Arizona during winter. I sit here and dream about him selling the rest of his 80 acres to small permaculturists a few to several acres at a time. I wish he could and would.

In my area the last 2-3 decades saw the latest round of farm consolidation which pretty much cleaned out all the old outdated farm sites.  Many unneeded old farm sites were bulldozed, burned, and buried but many with decent houses and outbuildings would be split off from the cropland into 10-20 acre parcels and rented out or put up for sale.  Very few takers so now when land is purchased most of the new owners just get rid of the farm sites.  Lots of opportunities lost, perfectly usable houses and outbuildings destroyed.  I guess I do not blame them, I would probably do the same thing if I were in their position.  

Family farm operations around here have been in the size range of 600 to 800 acres.  Everbody knows everybody.  The younger farmers I talk to who are taking over their parent's operations are actively seeking to expand their acreage up to 1500-2000 acre range so cropland opportunities are very tight and it is a sellers market.  Locals distrust carpetbaggers/corporate/absentee landowners and outside investors.  Outsiders generally do not have a chance to purchase cropland but I suppose money talks and everyone has their price...

Farm crises are historically cyclical, I hope the younger farmers are not overextending themselves.  Insolvent and overextended farmers, overvalued cropland, crooked banksters, manipulated markets, and timed crashes are how the little guys and gals get squeezed out and corporations weasel their way in.  Been going on in the U.S. since at least the 1970s.  While I do not at all like the modern high chem and soil-destroying ag methods independent farmers use today, the only thing worse, far worse, would be massive corporate land ownership with a monopoly on food production.  Corporate land ownership on a massive scale will happen much sooner than any large scale permaculture systems will be developed because it is a David and Goliath situation where David is using seed balls instead of rocks.  (My point about leveling such a criticism is that space and time for large scale permaculture methods to be developed would have to be protected and legislated to have any chance, and be publicly funded and subsidized at the same scale as modern big ag.  A MUCH larger percentage of the general population has to give a damn, and has to have the intelligence to comprehend and support the development of realistic, alternative conservation-minded food production methods.  Sorry folks, I am a realist and I just do not see such things happening any time in the foreseeable future.  We are a tiny minority on the fringe, while most people are happily existing in their dumbed-down fantasyland of consumerism, smart phones, and cheap crappy food.)

Andy Jensen wrote:I've lived in large-scale ag areas of northwestern U.S. most of my life. I have to say the trend in land ownership is not uplifting. Some farmers do cultivate younger partners to take over their operations. Some retirees lease their land to younger growers who need to expand to compete. Most of the land I saw exchange hands from older growers, however, has gone to large corporate entities. Often those are absentee landlords like Bill Gates, often corporations like ConAgra, Simplot, or in central Washington the LDS church, a religious group called Hutterian Brethren, and large "family farms" that control tens of thousands of acres.

We lucked into buying a house on three acres of fantastic soil in long-term rotational cattle grazing that we are converting to garden and food forest. It was split off by the rancher/owner at retirement age because he wanted to become a snow-bird living in his 5th wheel, ranching during summer, living in Arizona during winter. I sit here and dream about him selling the rest of his 80 acres to small permaculturists a few to several acres at a time. I wish he could and would.

Not trying to veer off into conspiracy territory here, but what's the endgame with these consolidations? Just buy the land, take it out of production, and let the city dwellers eat laboratory slime?

No, the farmland remains in commercial production. Corporate trusts will own it, because it is one of the few assets that will hold its value no matter what. They lease it to large-scale farm operators, for either cash or a cash+crop share arrangement.

The hard part is that, overall, neither party is deeply concerned about building long-term soil fertility. There are some practices that rotate cash crops, out of necessity, and reduce tillage.

But I lived in an A++ prime farmland area for 22 years where, IMO, the soil was being mined for its historical tilth rather than maintained. When I put a spade into the adjacent farmland, I couldn't believe how poor it was compared to my little patch.

My cousin has purchased farmland in Vermont via some kind of deal for future farmers. It's lovely because they probably wouldn't have been able to otherwise, previously they had just leased. There are options available for those who look.

There was farm of 140 acres that was recently auctioned nearby.  It sold for over a million dollars after all the auction fees and premiums were added.  This farm had been in the same family for generations but the farmer's children had no interest in it so he decided to sell as his age and health is declining.   While I'd like to see someone continue to keep it as a farm,  it sits along a lake that was built in the early 80s and will likely be divided into lake-view properties.  

On the other hand another farmer passed away and listed people in his will who he wished to have first option at buying his various farm properties.   A friend of ours recently added 80 acres to his farm for $500 an acres simply because the farmer knew he would indeed keep farming the land.  

My land isn't spectacular,  but I'd much rather gift it to someone who would continue to improve and expand what I've already done.  Currently I'm hoping my daughter develops an interest.

We live around crop land and the plan for most of the kids of these farmers is to sell it for subdividing. 5 acre "estates" are all the rage.

How Do we connect & find out about these? We must occupy & steward the land before Corporate destroys it! Educate & inspire the next generation to Live in abundance & beauty not just a dead machine world!!

Alektra Gomez wrote:How Do we connect & find out about these? We must occupy & steward the land before Corporate destroys it! Educate & inspire the next generation to Live in abundance & beauty not just a dead machine world!!

You'd be hard pressed to snatch some up before Bill Gates these days!

I thought I would throw a current issue by me into this thread.

Just behind/bordering my land is 40 beautiful, hilly, rolling acres of partially wooded, partially cleared land that just went up for sale.  If I just had money laying around I would be tempted to buy it but I have enough land and too many expenses already (1 kid in college, 1 getting close).  I would just love to see some Permie oriented person (or better yet, a Permie member!) but this land and start their own homestead.  I would gladly buy produce from them.  

Unfortunately my fear is that the asking price is too high and will scare off most homesteaders, even though it has real potential a good market (several farmer’s markets nearby), decent soil and long growing season.

I hope that if a homesteader does not buy the land, a single landowner buys the land for a single house.  My biggest concern is that the 40 acres will be subdivided into many homes and wreck the rural character of the land.

This fear is rooted in my experience growing up where the farmland around me became more profitable to sell to real estate development than for growing crops.  I really hope this does not happen by me again.

Eric