Serious question: How will California charge all the new electric vehicles?

I don't understand why California needs to be saved. They are the leading state in the nation. Because their economy is so large, they can influence manufacturers, that's a good thing. So Cal is obviously more problematic than Nor Cal given that it's a desert. But that's not different than the SW and still better than the south. Wet bulb, anyone.

The SF Bay Area already highly encourages bike travel, having bike lanes, allowing bikes on BART and buses. In SF, they have biking displays/protests.

L. Johnson wrote:
I'd like to be more like Edward Norton and get a cargo bike going! But I'm a wimp and don't want to bike in the rain. Maybe California will do some more cycling incentives to support the transition?

Here’s my 2 cents.

The UK is banning petrol and diesel from 2030, so five years ahead of California.

This is an S curve, not a straight line, so this law is a very easy win for the politicians green credentials. By 2035 the number of people buying non ev vehicles will be roughly the same proportion of the population buying horse draw buggies in 1913.


Horse-drawn carriages transport people on New York’s Fifth Avenue on Easter Sunday, 1900. Library of Congress photos


Easter Sunday, 1913


And this is how you had to fill up your car in 1900

By 2035 actual car ownership will be dramatically lower than it is today because of TAAS - transport as a service. When you have million mile batteries and fully autonomous vehicles, owning a car in a city or urban area will make very little sense. This is already happening in some parts of the world like Singapore. Singapore is also leasing a big chunk of land in Australia to provide solar energy via a DC cable running thousands of miles under the ocean. World’s biggest clean energy project

Adoption of EV’s will accelerate in cities as more stringent air pollution controls come into effect.

There’s some seriously impressive energy tech in developent, like liquid metal batteries and deep geothermal drilling using lasers.





Ultimately the market will make this happen, renewable tech is cheaper.

In the mean time, go to a bike store, try out an electric bike or an electric cargo bike and enjoy. I guarantee it will put a massive smile on your face. And you might earn a slice of pie.

WOW!  This has gotten a lot of great replies in the last 12 hours or so.  I wanted to respond to a few of them specifically, though all deserve attention.  I just can't get to all at this time.

Edward, is the UK banning *ALL* sales of petrol and diesel?  Will it be available in some places but not others?  I know that places like London severely restrict inflowing traffic in part to reduce congestion.  Will the Petrol/diesel ban be something similar?

Stacy, Just to be clear, I am not recommending that anyone save California at all.  All I am doing is asking  the question about how California will generate all that electricity to charge a whole fleet of new EV's.  From a very basic, generic standpoint, I guess I see three possibilities.  

Possibility #1:  California somehow manages to generate much, much more electricity that it does at present.  It could be through solar, wind, new generating stations of some type, etc.

Possibility #2:  California somehow manages to institute massive energy savings programs to reduce home energy consumption, harvest peak-generation energy for later use (such as grid-scale batteries), strongly encourage driving less, and other methods, basically taking advantage of existing energy production.

Possibility #3:  California has no plan and does nothing, resulting in sky-high electricity prices, brownouts and rolling blackouts.  David Huang basically suggested that there was in fact no plan for additional generation and in the most dystopic form, this could mean some pretty disastrous situations in California.

I suspect that the reality will be some mish-mash of all three--that is slightly more generation, probably mostly via solar, a handful of programs aimed at reducing electrical strain through efficiency and conservation, and probably some further strain on the already over-strained electrical grid.  I am not recommending that the rest of the country and certainly not the rest of the world come to the rescue of California.  I am just wondering what that eventual future looks like.  I am even pondering if California can charge a whole new fleet of EV's that will start to emerge in a few years.  I do hope they can!  But I have to recognize that this is no trivial undertaking.  WFH certainly can help.  And I absolutely love placing solar panels over canals and parking lots!  I don't know how much energy that produces, but I would love to hear that figure.  I also wonder if some type of main generation plant will be necessary.  Something tells me that it will be highly practical at the least and may be a financial reality, but what form of power generation that would be, I simply don't know (hopefully not coal).

I wish I could respond to more specific entries on this thread, but I am pressed for time.  I love the discussion so far.

Eric

I wish that I could respond

Here’s what I found. (Most searches bring up older data. The UK originally planned a ban by 2035. It was brought forward for UK (except Scotland) to 2030 in 2020).

1. Austria: seeks to to phase out registrations of new petrol vehicles by 2027.
2. British Columbia: legislation passed to ban sales of new petrol cars by 2040
3.  Denmark: plans to ban petrol vehicles by 2030, and hybrids by 2035; has called on the European Union to expressly permit member states to enact 2030 bans.
4.  Egypt: working on plan to have only electric vehicles by 2040
5.  France: plans to ban sales of petrol vehicles by 2040
6.  Germany: Bundesrat (upper house of legislature) passed resolution to only approve emission-free cars for use on the roads by 2030.
7. Iceland: plans to ban registration of new fossil fuel vehicles starting 2030; Reykjavik is eliminating half its petrol stations by 2025.
8. India: set a target of 100% electric vehicles by 2030, and is considering a ban on petrol-powered 2- and 3-wheeled vehicles by 2025.
9.  Ireland: legislation proposed to only allow sales of zero emissions vehicles starting 2030
10.  Israel: plans to ban sales of new petrol vehicles after 2030
11. Japan: plans to ban sales of new petrol vehicles by 2035.
12. Korea: contemplating banning sales of new petrol vehicles by 2035
13.  Netherlands: all new cars must be emissions-free by 2030; Amsterdam is banning all petrol/diesel vehicles from its streets by 2030
14.  Norway: plans to ban sales of petrol vehicles by 2025 (currently 60% of new car sales are electric)
15.  Portugal: plans to stop selling new petrol vehicles by 2040
16. Quebec: phasing out sales of new gas cars by 2035
17.  Slovenia: plans to ban sales of new fossil fuel vehicles by 2030
18.  Spain: plans to ban the sale of vehicles running on fossil fuels by 2040
19.  Sri Lanka: plans to ban all fossil fuel vehicles from the roads by 2040.
20.  Sweden: plans to ban sales of petrol cars after 2030
21.  Taiwan: plans to ban sales of new non-electric vehicles by 2040
22. Thailand: plans to phase out sales of new gas cars by 2035
23.  UK: plans to ban sales of purely petrol or diesel vehicles by 2030; Scotland: plans to phase out sales of new petrol vehicles by 2032.
Non-US Cities
Amsterdam: no internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will be allowed in city center after 2030.
Brussels: planning to largely ban gasoline powered vehicles from operating in the city by 2035.
Bristol: may be the first city to ban diesel vehicles from entering the city center.
Hong Kong: plans to phase out all gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2030 or 2040.

That is an impressive list.  Also, it addresses something that I was wondering about but did not directly ask:  It sounds like petrol/diesel *fuels* are still available, but the vehicles are getting more scarce.  Is that about correct?

Eric

Eric Hanson wrote:That is an impressive list.  Also, it addresses something that I was wondering about but did not directly ask:  It sounds like petrol/diesel *fuels* are still available, but the vehicles are getting more scarce.  Is that about correct?

Which leads to the issue of how the world is actually going to *make* all these new electric cars and what the embodied energy will represent.

Are there people looking seriously into converting ICE vehicles into electric vehicles? At least many of the small ones?  2030 is only 8 years away and if countries are going to make those deadlines, it's not just the electricity to charge the vehicles that will be a problem!

Jordan Holland wrote:Just saw this from Babylon Bee:

I saw a presentation of full life-cycle emissions of EV vs. ICE and EV didn't get ahead until something like 10 years... and as far as "horse power" between respiration and methane from manure, horses' emissions are on par with Chevy Corvettes, but slower.

I'm surprised that Chevy didn't go with "Chevrolet Chevre", go-anywhere, goat-powered SUV.
They could get Tom Brady to pitch the Chevy G.O.A.T.!

Eric, you might find this interesting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station

Batteries are ... cute. Pumped hydro is more interesting solution (unless you live somewhere very flat!).

The intro highlights the difference between energy and power.

The EU has done commissioned extensive research into the total environmental cost of ICE v BEV (Battery EV). This enables consumers to be better informed when they buy a BEV and addresses concerns about total environmental impact per country. Some parts of the EU have significantly cleaner energy sources. One report, which is very detailed has been broken down here. Upshot is, in the EU, BEV’s on average have 45% less C02 production over a fifteen year lifespan taking into account production, fuel, maintenance and disposal.

I haven’t been able to find equivalent information about the US with breakdown per state. Love it or loath it, the EU is very good at protecting consumer rights and making sure consumers are educated in this respect.

Jay Angler wrote:
Are there people looking seriously into converting ICE vehicles into electric vehicles? At least many of the small ones?  ...

At least one major manufacturer is already anticipating this:  https://www.reliable-chevrolet.com/blog/2022/may/7/chevy-to-sell-ev-retrofit-kits-in-2021.htm

James Alun wrote:Eric, you might find this interesting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station

Batteries are ... cute. Pumped hydro is more interesting solution (unless you live somewhere very flat!).

The intro highlights the difference between energy and power.

I understand there is something like that somewhere along the shore of Lake Michigan.  I remember learning about it in a college class once.  Water is pumped up into a higher level reservoir, usually at night when the base power load is not being used to full capacity.  Then when extra power is needed it's released back down through turbines into Lake Michigan.  Obviously it isn't a "source" of power, rather it is like a battery used to store potential energy that can be quickly converted to electric power.

Such system can work well if you have fairly reliable periods of excess power that would otherwise be unused, and you are near a large body of water with the potential for a large elevated storage basin.  It does seem like this could help deal with the intermittency of solar and wind power generation.

California is steadily increasing solar every year, including roof-top as well as big installations and all the other forms. Most houses that have PV solar panels are not off-grid, but grid tied. So for the individual it's not essential that the car be charged during the daylight hours, though it would be cheaper than selling unused power in the day and buying power at night.

Of course, if solar becomes a major part of a whole grid's power, then the issue would be on a large scale.

David, yep, good description!
I seem to remember there were plans for something between lake Ontario and lake Huron that could be a bit of a gamechanger for north america.

PS: Why have you got 3 grids? You're really gonna struggle  
to utilise multiple power source balancing with that.

Edward Norton wrote:
8. India: set a target of 100% electric vehicles by 2030, and is considering a ban on petrol-powered 2- and 3-wheeled vehicles by 2025.

Ooooh now that's got some serious potential, get China onboard and we could really make an impact.  

Ok, interesting fact to add to the mix.  Earlier this year California generated all of its electricity  (18 GW) with green sources.  2/3 was generated by solar (12 GW).  This was only for a brief time but it was impressive nonetheless.

As far as pumped storage, I am pretty well acquainted with the concept.  One of its major problems is that it does require a large elevation differential (easy in California).  The downside is that it really requires the *right* place and there are always people who oppose converting more wild and/or rural land to semi-industrial usage.  Grid-scale batteries (not lithium or lead acid batteries) are truly unique devices and can be placed pretty much anywhere.  And they are getting better.

If California needs 18 GW now, I wonder what their consumption will be in 2035 when they start charging fleets of cars.  It should be pretty interesting.

Eric

Eric Hanson wrote:As far as pumped storage, I am pretty well acquainted with the concept.  One of its major problems is that it does require a large elevation differential (easy in California).  The downside is that it really requires the *right* place and there are always people who oppose converting more wild and/or rural land to semi-industrial usage.

The downside that many people forget is the issue of evaporation. Lake Ont to Lake Huron wouldn't be an issue many summers if we're having typical thunderstorm weather, but I can remember about a decade ago they had a massive drought and if people were counting on pumped storage they'd have been out of luck.

Another thing that tends to get underestimated is all the losses in a pumped storage system. Every time energy changes form or has to move from Point A to Point B, there are losses due to many factors including basic ones like friction!

Hopefully, some of the issues of the last 3 years will help people realize that we need redundancy and resilience in our systems. A little pumped storage in the right place, different types of batteries, different ways to generate power - just like permaculture, there isn't one right plant for every need!

Hubby sent me an update about the conversion kit mentioned -  essentially delayed by Covid but still working on it:

https://www.carscoops.com/2022/07/gm-still-working-on-electric-crate-motor-will-feature-holistic-package-for-ev-conversions/

Just to make matters interesting, today (9/6/2022) I heard that California will be experiencing rolling blackouts due to excessive heat and demand from all the AC units.  What an awful time to lose power!  Yuck!

In another forum I often hang out in someone just posted this video of a presentation of a couple papers by Simon Michaux where he is presenting the data he's come up with exploring many of the issues we've been discussing in this thread.  Basically looking at the viability of switching to a renewable energy grid and electric vehicles.



It's an academic presentation and so a bit dry as he explains where he gets his numbers from, what the assumptions are, etc.  The basic takeaway I get from it is that my earlier guess that politicians making these laws had no real plan to make them work is correct.  The prime thing Mr. Michaux was looking at was just the metals required to make this transition on a worldwide scale.  In many of the cases it would take thousands of years of mining extraction at current rates to get enough, and it's not simply a matter of opening a few more mines to increase extraction rates either.  If I remember right with copper it would require about 6 times all the copper we've mined in history to build out just the first generation of renewable infrastructure, never mind replacing it a few decades down the line, or to grow the capacity to support our monetary systems which require exponential growth.  Basically, the numbers don't begin to pencil out both in terms of volume needed and time needed to meet these 2030-2035 goals.  Usually we are just discussing energy shortfalls.  In this he is pointing out that the issues with mineral resources is just as big a problem, and of course they are interrelated as mining is hugely energy intensive, not to mention environmentally damaging.  

The presentation is worth watching/listening to in order to get a better grasp of the scope of the problem so we can start working on more realistic responses to our predicament.

Apparently, it is now more expensive to drive an EV than ICE in the UK.

The soaring energy prices across the pond come amid a major pivot in the US toward electric vehicles with President Biden’s new climate spending law pumping billions of dollars into producing EVs and providing tax credits to people who buy them.

What’s more, California last week became the first state to begin phasing out the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles. The phase-out starts in 2026 with a 2035 deadline to end sales of new gasoline-powered cars. Many other Democratic-run states are expected to follow California’s lead.

Electricity prices in the UK will nearly double from about 33 cents per kWh to 60 cents per kWh, making electric vehicles cost more before and after driving them off the lot. By comparison, the average electricity cost in the US is less than 11 cents per kWh, according to the Energy Information Administration.

With UK electricity prices and gasoline at roughly $7.40 per gallon, the owner of a $40,000 electric Kia NIRO would spend more than $100 more to travel 400 miles than the owner of a $26,000 gas-powered Kia Sportage, according to an analysis by UK roadside assistance RAC service, the country’s AAA equivalent.

A $71,000 Jaguar I-PACE would cost nearly $115 more to go those 400 miles than its gas-powered equivalent, the $52,000 Jaguar F-PACE.

https://tittlepress.com/world/1934706/#:~:text=Britain%E2%80%99s%20energy%20regulator%20warned%20residents%20to%20expect%20their,more%20than%20%244%2C000%20per%20year%2C%20according%20to%20regulators.

"Emergency Alert" saves California.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-62832775