Just came across this, below, mentioned within the Global Association for Transitional Engineering annual convergence last night:
https://cascadeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Cascade-Institute-Polycrisis-Core-Model-v2.5-technical-synopsis-of-results-Aug-11-2025.pdf
Prof. 'Tad' Thomas Homer-Dixon presented recently on this:
Summarized by another (
https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2025/11/11/mapping-pathways-through-the-polycrisis-the-cascade-institutes-new-model-for-navigating-global-systemic-risk/) here:
"Summary:
Global systems theorist Thomas Homer-Dixon gave a webinar on Nov 6, 2025 in which he described the Cascade Institute’s breakthrough approach to modelling global systemic risk. You can watch the full video of his presentation on the ASRA YouTube channel.
The Polycrisis Core Model (PCM) is a sophisticated analytical tool that not only maps the complex interactions driving today’s global crises but could help identify concrete pathways toward more hopeful futures.
Moving beyond speculation: Previously, ideas about achieving positive global transformation were largely speculative. Now, based on 1,800 expert judgments and rigorous mathematical modelling, there’s a grounded, evidence-based approach to understanding how we might navigate out of today’s entangled crises.
The PCM uses Cross Impact Balance (CIB) analysis to model 11 global subsystems (covering everything from economy and climate to food and governance), each with multiple possible states, generating over 4 million potential future scenarios for humanity by 2040.
Only 11 scenarios are truly stable: Out of 4 million possibilities, the mathematics reveals just 11 “consistent” scenarios, or attractors in an 11-dimensional state space. Three major attractors emerge: Illiberal Decline, Mad Max, and Hope.
The Hope attractor exists but is narrow: The good news is that a positive future is mathematically possible. The challenging news is that Hope attracts only about 100,000 scenarios compared to Mad Max’s 500,000, and it remains climatically “Hot” (high degrees of global warming), these facts mean resilience work against collapse remains a critical hedge.
Democracy appears non-negotiable: The analysis reveals clear policy targets which most notably include maintaining democracy, this appears essential for any pathway to Hope. Without democratic systems, initial modelling suggests no viable route to positive outcomes.
The work is actionable, not academic: The model identifies specific leverage points for interventions and provides a framework for understanding which policy moves might push us toward the edge of Hope’s basin of attraction, where natural system dynamics would pull us in to a positive future.
"
I want to note the apparent assumption in this CIB particular analysis that growth is healthy and normal: It doesn't have to be done this way.
This CIB method interests me. I hope someday to work with a team that uses CIB for world forecasting, but with a steady state economy as an ideal. Please reach out if you are interested.
