Josh Johann

The 'SHTF' scenario would be a mess.
Most Americans don't have the basic skills to survive..i.e. farming, metal and wood working, animal husbantry, build a house, security, etc..etc.

Then there is the problem of going from 2013 to 1880 in a week.

Most things we take for granted is depended on the 'grid'.
Power, communications, security, medicine, etc.
The little electrical outlet is the only thing holding society together.

No gas for farm tractors to plow, plant and harvest.
No medicine.
No antibiotics. A simple cut could be serious or even life threatening.

No running water on most farms (pumps are electric in most places.).
Some farms would be abandoned if they have deep wells or far away from irrigation canals.
No way to get the water to the surface without a generator. (fuel problem.)
Crops that were planted would die for lack of water.

Settlements would have to live near rivers or streams and find a way to irrigate.

Then there is a water purification problem.
For crops not a big problem, but for drinking water, it has to be purified. (Cystes, parasites etc..no antibiotics or medicine available if someone gets sick.)

Shop gear like lathes, mills, table saws, skill saws, arc welders etc. to keep the farm or settlement in repair, that runs on electric, are now expensive boat anchors unless run on a generator..(fuel problem yet again.)
All the farming will done by hand which, with even a small community to feed, would be a full time job provided there was enough able bodied people to do it.
Even 'if' one could find a mule or a horse, how many know how to harness and plow with them or care for them?

That's providing there is time to plow, plant and harvest and enough food to last until the first harvest without interruption.
How do they perserve the food?
How many people now a days have the skill to can, jerk meat or smoke meat?

I suppose one could make power with solar or wind.
But where do they find the solar panels?. I suppose they could look for parts for an energy system.
Do they end up 'foraging' also for the parts?; another name for looting?
And what happens when one 'foraging' group, runs into another 'foraging' group (they won't be the only ones out there looking for the same things..) or a group defending their own assets?

Then there is the problem of security.
Everybody will be spreading out foraging and no matter how isolated the farm or settlement is, it will be found sooner or later.
Farms and settlements would have a big sign on them that says 'Loot Me'.
As one poster pointed out in 'Lucifer's Hammer'..many of the looters and threats came from trained cadre.
How many people have the training and skills to address security?

Then they will need people to repair what they have. Metal workers, blacksmiths, woodworkers, leather workers etc.

How do they heat the home? Wood..no chainsaws, more work by hand.

How do they have light?
Candles?..How many people know how to make a candle? What materials are readily available in that scenario to make a candle?
Lanterns?..Fuel yet again.

I suppose one could make fuel, but how many people have that knowledge?
Even with the knowledge, they will need people with the knowledge and the tools to fabricate with the materials they can find.

A thing as simple as a nail we take for granted to build something would be important.
Blacksmiths made nails, but where do you find a blacksmith in such a scenario?

'Wanted: Blacksmith to make nails. Will trade two jars of honey for box of nails. Contact Apocolyse Farms at coordinates 7120 on your GPS."

Of course, the blacksmith's batteries have run out in his GPS.

Did I say back to 1880?
I meant 1840..

Spanglefeathe Hatfield wrote: 
  I think security in the future may depend less on climate and more on community.
  I believe if we want to thrive in a Peak Oil collapse we ought to start building those relationships and social permaculture NOW.
  I would love to start a community on my property. It is also possible we will sell up and live in an RV for awhile. There is still that opportunity in Hoodsport. Being enslaved to a mortgage is a terrible thing. We all ought to wise up and figure out a better way, while we are still free to do so.
  A migrating tribe of 12 like- minded people was written into our genes for two million years. Why cant we do it today? Anyone with experience knows twenty reasons why not!!!

I'll put in my own two cents for what it is worth.
Our tribal anchesters lived to the ripe old age of about 35 years old.
Most of the rules were enforced using 'force'.
Many remains found showed signs of blunt trauma.
Our anchestors did'nt fight over oil or natural gas or a 'political idealogy' for the most part, they fought over berry bushes and fishing/hunting grounds.
So, IMHO, our earthy ancestors were not all sunshine and 'I'm ok, your ok.'.
So, when 12 members of one tribe met and there was competition with 12 members of another tribe..there was conflict.

Our species is historically territorial and has not changed alot since we were on the tundra chucking a dart from an atlatl at a bison.
Today we are 'civilized'..we don't use spears or atlatls, we use cruise missiles.

That being said, 'like minded' only goes so far.

The pioneers were 'like minded' when they came across the United States, but only to a point (in most cases) when they got to their destination, they resumed their own lives, beliefs and political systems.

Also 'like minded' can make a community stagnant.
What 'if' a vegan community needs a mechanic?..do they pass up a great mechanic because he/she eats meat?
How about religous views?
Does the community pass up a great construction worker because he/she is non-religous or is religous?
How about politicial view points?
Does a left leaning group pass up a great healer because he/she is right leaning or vice versa?
Or, if the group rejects motor vehicles on the property or even driving them, do they reject a person who is great at alternative energy and electrical engineering because he wants drive his 4WD pickup and Harley?

Where do new ideas come from?
Very simply, a vast array of people from all walks of life or the group becomes stagnant.

Then there is the problem of 'life happens'.
Divorce, change of diet, change of political views, change of careers, loss of a job and income..etc..etc..

Then there is the legal aspects.
If a person has to leave the group because his/her ideals or life goals have changed; does he/she get compensation for work?..materials?..time?

I think the Amish probably have the best system..they are a 'community' but their land is the private property of the family.
The 'bond' is their faith view.
But even then, there can be conflict.

Perhaps the same model could be made based on self reliance, permaculture etc..
The reality is IMHO, 'like minded' only goes so far and people change in life.
And that room for change must not only be made within the 'community', but expected.
The failure of IC's to accept 'different' or even 'change', and not making room for that change, is IMHO, a major reason for the high failure rate of IC's.

Personally, I'm a firm believer that high fences make for good neighbors.
But that is just my own opinion.

Hello everyone.
I'm from the Pacific Northwest.
I have solar/wind power, and I do blacksmithing, metal working and construction.
I also restore ham radios and receivers from the 30's to the 70's.
Great site.

I used the following system in my camper.
It will power cell phones, 12 volt lights, MP3, AM/FM/CD radio, laptop and a 1000 watt inverter.
I used the Harbor Freight solar panels and they worked well.
I bought two sets and they charged four six volt golf cart batteries wired series/paralell.
The controller is a 30 MPPT amp contoller.
The panels were wired into a waterproof combiner box and then into the charge panel/breaker panel.
I've since bought a 100 watt panel for the trailer, not because the HB panels did'nt do the job; just one panel is easier to handle than six. : )
Hope this helps.

I can tell you my own personal experience with wind turbines for personal power.
I use Delco Remy 10SI alternators converted to permanant magnet.
I use these because they are the biggest a 'one man or one woman' team could handle setting up.
They produce about 10 amps.
When I say 10 amps, that is a 35-40 MPH wind which most areas don't get all the time.
In my area, wind is usually 5-15 MPH typically.
I use low speed, low start up vanes.
The start up is around 6 MPH.
The thinner 'sword' type vanes are for high wind/high speed so they would be almost useless in my area.
The turbines are used to suppliment my solar system.
Which brings up how I use them.
They typically produce 1-3 amps at night when I get wind in my area, so they act as a 'trickle' charge' to my battery bank.
The body is made from 1/4"X 1 1/4" metal strap..the tail was cut from an old washing machine.
The mount is made from 2" pipe welded to angle iron and the tail assembly bolts on.
The tower is a 'tilt down' tower concreted in the ground 3' deep.
The short of the story is, unless you have regular wind in your area, you would probably get more watts per dollar with solar and use the wind turbine as a suppliment to the solar system.
Just my humble opinion.
Good luck.