Myself, I don’t see the price of food increasing by ten times in the near future. On principal, and historically, at least here in the United States, it is extremely doubtful the government would let that happen.
I say this because I am well versed in agriculture. My family has both teeny-tiny dairy farms, and yet also into big agriculture where everyone reading this has food in the pantry from a food company my Great Grandfather many times removes started. Last year that company, which own over a hundred food brands, made 4 billion in profit. Billion was not a misspelling.
On the small side of things, the government tells my grandfather 6 months in advance what the price of milk will be. They cannot tell what prices will be on many things, but on some food staples they dictate the price. They historically have not cared if millions of small farmers have gone out of business because of low food prices, they will let small farms fail just to keep staple food prices low. Milk is one such commodity.
On the bigger side of agriculture, our stock has always split during a recession. Why? Because during boom years of the economy, stock prices look putrid compared to high-yield stock prices, but in recessions, when those high-yield stock prices are down, food companies stock price suddenly looks good. It is simple phycology. To investors, 8% looks putrid when high yield is making 12%, but when high-yield tanks and is making 3%, then suddenly 8% looks really good. That is when they pour money into our company and we have to split the stock price. So what I am noting is, the price of food does NOT fluctuate that much historically. It does some during high inflation periods, (1970’s/2020’s) but as we saw in eggs last year, if the price gets too high the US Gov steps immediately in to drop the price.
Ultimately, we are a country governed by supply and demand. Should the food supply get bad, and it will get REALLY bad for 3-1/2 years, but that is a longs ways out, as a country we would simply recoil back and stop feeding the world and focus on ourselves.
This too was historically done. It is why so many farmers went out of business in the 1980’s. Ronald Regan knew the USSR did not have enough food to feed itself and so it used food to cause its collapse. It had two choices, feed itself by buying US food, or pay for weapons. The America Farmers won the Cold War, but unfortunately many paid for that win by losing their farms because of flooded markets and low food prices. Many taking their own lives because of it.
Rest in Peace my fellow farmers. Its been 40 years but some of us still have not forgotten the price you paid for cheap food prices.