Hi Aaron,
I too would encourage you to go for it. I myself have been working to establish a 1 acre orchard over the past 6 years, and it is a very satisfying endeavor. Having said that, I should disclose that I have made $zero dollars$ over that time period. And I have invested quite a lot more than you are planning. In the context of my diverse (and profitable) small farm, the orchard has been the undisputed loss leader. I think your preliminary numbers are extremely optimistic and totally unrealistic, but that shouldnt stop you from pursuing a passion.
Additional costs to factor in include tools, fertilizer/soil fertility, fencing,
irrigation, bureaucracy. These catagories are enormously broad, but they will not be unsubstantial.
-For tools, I have purchased a flail mower and rotary plow with a walk behind
tractor. In the establishment phase of an orchard, you must keep competition under the dripline of your trees to a minimum. Mowing is necessary to eliminate pest habitat, both insect and more critially rodent. Good pruners, lopers, and a small pruning saw are needed. A backpack sprayer for foliar feeding is a good investment when establishing trees, and for future pest control sprays. Definitely consider the spray requirements for your potential crops, in CT you will need a serious program to get #1 quality marketable fruit with apples, pears, peaches, etc. These (organic) pesticides are expensive and need frequent application.
-In my orchard, I have good soils to begin with, but have still soil tested and ammended P,K,S,B,Zn,Cu and
compost. Mineral levels are now optimum, as you really need them to be for good quality fruit with large harvests. Maintainence applications of compost and/or other biodynamic ammendemnts will be needed as the trees are growing in the early years.
Polyculture alone will not adequately
feed a production orchard until it is well established.
-Fencing from rodents,
deer, and others is not optional. Where I live in CO, deer will decimate an orchard the first winter, guarenteed. Rodents, in all their forms, are just as deadly. Devise a plan to protect your trees that foresees the worst case scenario ahead of time. I had to completely replant my orchard at the 3 year mark because of field
mice girdling the trees beneath the snow. Sad, sad times. I spent thousands to adequately deer
fence the orchard ahead of time, but in my optimism I tried many (failed) strategies to graze sheep and calves which ultimately damaged a lot of young trees. Hence the purchase of the mower.
-Irrigation is probably pretty reliable from the sky in CT, but you still should consider some provision for drought. Young trees with limited root systems will get drought stressed and stunted in a matter of weeks. Once established, trees need a consistant amount of water when maturing juicy fruit. Drought would ruin your crop in later years, but may kill your trees when young. Irrigation can be as simple as a pickup truck with a large water tank and a hose, but still needs to be considered.
-Insurance, retail/wholesale permits, taxes, business overhead. The leaches that suck any
profit to a minimum. Not insignificant costs that would vary tremendously by local area.
As others have suggested, marketing is the big conundrum. Consumers expect perfect fruit, and wont pay much at all for blemished produce. Managing the extreme abundance of orchard fruit in a timely way, while getting a good price, is tricky to say the least. One week, you have a few boxes that find a ready buyer. Then a few weeks where you have fruit by the truckload, hard to sell it before it rots. Then the season is over. Sequencing different varietals helps to smooth out the production curve, but there will still be a lot of variation week to week. Bottom line, expect that if you are really on top of things, you will still be able to market only half of the fruit your orchard produces. Your supply varies a lot, consumer demand remains much more stable. Direct marketing, to restaurants, co-ops, etc gets you a good price, but a small order. Wholesaling greatly reduces your price, so instead of $2/lb you might get 50 cents. Balancing price and volume is a challenge. Figure you get a good price for some of what you grow, but certainly not all of it.
If orcharding was really profitable, lots more folk would do it because it is wonderful work. Most of your payment for your investment and hard work will be lots of fresh fruit and the deep satisfaction of farming. That's
enough for me, but not for most. Hope it works for you! Dont give up easily; slow and steady wins the race. Good luck!