Trace Oswald wrote:
Marty Mitchell wrote:... it has been estimated that around 90% of the population would be dead within a year.
I'm sorry for the challenges your family is having right now. I work in an area that now has 5 verified positive cases, and it's concerning to say the least.
I'm curious about that 90% number. Do you know how it was arrived at? I can't even imagine it would be from starvation. Maybe from lack of hospital care? I just can't see any way 90% of the population dies from this.
Tj Jefferson wrote:L orinne, we have had (along with China and S Korea and Japan) very active sars vaccine development and medication development for years at ft Dietrich. None of them appear to work and I would estimate we spent around 100 million in the attempt. Other countries spent more. It has not been from lack of trying. Vaccines are tricky and we still have no vaccines that really work for the flu (it’s modestly effective in a good year). There’s a good target protein and I am hopeful for a vaccine but the virus can also shift and make it useless. Optimistic would be a year from now. The global economy will not last that long.
In terms of transmission, I think ( but do not know) that low level initial infection probably promotes a milder course. Hand washing and masking should have been done long time. Intrafamily transmission in tight quarters is especially dangerous I believe, which is why the worst numbers will be in crowded urban areas.
Marty I am sorry for your wife’s presumptive exposure. It’s scary and I feel for her. I’ve had a few likely but no symptoms yet. More chances tomorrow! I have a family member with moderate symptoms we are monironing.
Lorinne Anderson wrote:
Being short sighted or focused on the economy at this time, I fear, will become a horrible chapter in history, that will never be forgotten.
Tj Jefferson wrote:
Tj Jefferson wrote:Greetings all. I have struggled with how to be a resource on here for some time. I'm going to take a leap. The fact that people are engaged, reading responsible sources and seem to be making cogent arguments on here makes me feel its a good place to comment.
I know there are lots of people who have questions and I may have some input. Most people on here don't know what I do professionally, and frankly I prefer it- people either treat me as more important than I am or like a sellout, but I'm just a regular guy with a job, until pretty recently. Everything that follows is my opinion, and I strongly encourage people to make your own decisions. I'm just trying to give some data as I see it, especially from a Permie perspective. I really appreciate prior people who have given their professional expertise to me on here, and maybe I can be of imperfect service. I will try to be responsive but I am very busy and getting more so. I do think this is a mission I can undertake to hopefully help people with their anxiety over the situation.
I'm an anesthesiologist, which is a very exposed career field at this point. The exposure and illness rates are high in ER and downstream in the treatment pathway, especially in nurses. They need your assistance and prayers, and maybe some crowdsourcing is in order, there is no happy ending without community engagement. That means many of us have been following this for months (as you can see from my prior writings in January) and trying to learn from China, Italy and the PNW here as best as possible. We are all keen on seeing as few of you as possible because we don't have a ton of solutions. I am not trying to give "inside baseball" info, more trying to translate what I think we know to you guys as you desire. Again, the data is really really patchy, and there are smart people who will disagree with me on pretty much everything. I come from more of a precautionary principle perspective, but I would say I also think there is a confidence interval, and we have to be risk averse but not paralyzed. I will try to give citations for things that I can, but I would rather synthesize my thoughts and see what questions people have. I will be available today, I have some conference calls later but will try to at least write tidbits in response. Lord willing I will try to add what I can when I am off shift. I'm going to concentrate on things that are not readily available and noncontroversial, more like what extended family are asking me. hopefully practical stuff... I'm especially involved with ad hoc protection of EMS and can give some ideas. Not data driven, but based on my best guess. I don't trust anything from the WHO and the CDC is more about decreasing panic (which is fine) than giving out mitigation strategies.
Here are a couple links to give some ideas:
Reuse of N95- from the inventor
Waste Stream N95 equivilent masks
Nicole Alderman wrote:Wearing a mask is great if you can make it yourself. Please, please, PLEASE don't buy them from the store. I say this as someone who's husband works at the hospital. They don't have enough masks. If a patient is not confirmed as Covid-19 positive, he is not allowed to wear a mask. And with the positive patients, he is only allowed a paper mask, which he has to reuse on 5 patients before getting another one...and this is while he's bent over them while they're coughing and sick.
Masks are rationed that strongly, because there are so few at the hospital. It's scary how much he is likely spreading coronavirus because he doesn't have adequate protection. Please, save the masks for the medical professionals, so they can work on treating the patients, rather than spreading the virus.