It should be borne in mind that the long odds are for a tree that will meet the criteria for a modern commercial eating apple, which encompass many characteristics irrelevant to the permaculturist/homesteader. There are appealing textures and flavors that will never pass commercial muster solely because it's been decided by the commercial apple gods that all eating apples must be crisp, hard, sweet, and juicy (as well as being long-keeping and suitable for shipping to another hemisphere). We have myriad uses for apples which don't meet these standards--drying, feeding hogs, cider, vinegar, etc. Prior to this video, Stephen did a blog post regarding apple breeding (
http://skillcult.com/blog/2013/04/03/apple-breeding-part-1-everyone-knows-you-cant-do-it-right ) wherein he recounted an 1899 breeding experiment at Geneva, NY in which 106 progeny yielded 13 varieties worthy of naming, and another 14 of further investigation. That's about 25%, which just goes to show how much narrower the criteria have become today. The takeaway is that the odds aren't so bad after all, as long as expectations are reasonable. We need more plant sex--cloning is preventing genetic progress and stifling biodiversity.
SkillCult is an impeccable resource. I'm an information connoisseur, and Steven Edholm doesn't have much competition when it comes to the quality of what he produces. Whether it's burning lime, tanning hides, growing potato onions, or making biochar, he's on it and explains procedures with clarity and intelligence. His analysis and ideas are awesome. I recommend the site to anyone who's interested in cutting through the hype and drilling down to the marrow of a subject. Don't expect the Cliff notes; you'll get the full treatment. Two thumbs up!