Kaarina Kreus wrote:"experienced craftsmanship and constructive maintenance can prolong the lifespan of burnt wood products from 80 to 100 years."
https://degmeda.eu/how-long-does-shou-sugi-ban-wood-last/
I think the "constructive maintenance" is the important part. You'd have to regularly reapply fire to get that perfect charred exterior. It's still a fairly thin layer that can be abraded with minimal pressure (a pressure washer removes it off right away). I've been to Japan this summer, and nowhere does the wood look like that freshly charred look. They accept that it's going to age and weather, and eventually be replaced.
Also, an interesting part of Japanese culture is that a building is still considered centuries old even if they replaced every single piece of it. For instance, the Matsumoto castle is supposedly one of the "originals", but it was entirely dismantled in the 1960s, every single piece of damaged wood was replaced, and they reassembled it. That cultural difference in interpretation can give way to misunderstanding as to how long their wood buildings actually last.
The photo I've attached shows how the wood (probably cypress or cedar) lost most of its charring and is showing graying, uneven weathered spots and some mold or algae. We can see from the low center portion that the wood was indeed initially charred (that beautiful grain). That is a minor but well-used shrine in a low-touristy area, so it's typical of something that is well maintained by
volunteer residents, but not funded by hordes of Western tourists. More touristy sites had that "fresh yakisugi" look, but I suspect they get yearly maintenance.
Exposure makes also a big difference. From what I've seen in Japan, the places where the wood was well preserved were all under some sort of awning or roof, and mostly on vertical surfaces. On my deck, the vertical posts that are under the handrail are still in fairly good shape. It's the areas that are exposed to rain and snow that got the most beating.
That said, I'm still happy with the finish we chose for our deck. I knew what to expect, and I don't mind cedar changing color over time. We got 8 solid years with next to no maintenance - that certainly beats painting it every year with toxic guck - and the wood underneath is still perfectly sound. The
experience craftmen we used to prepare the wood and assemble the deck do not provide the "reburn" service, and I'm not equiped nor confident
enough to redo it myself, so we will change the approach a bit going forward. But it's not a bad choice: just not a magic bullet.