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a college degree in 2025/2026/2027 ... don't

Dan Robinson

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About comments by Ed Simpson:

... college for young people coming out of HS is still (almost) always a GOOD idea.

... there is NO way I could have what I have today without my college degrees.

These statements could benefit from additional clarification and supporting arguments.

For example, why is it "still always a GOOD idea?" And why is there "NO way" you could have what you have today without your college degrees? What exactly do you have that could not be obtained in some profession or activity (e.g., owning a business) not requiring a college degree?

Numerous professions require a college degree due to regulatory requirements. Therefore, if one desires to practice these professions, a college degree is required.

For example, some of these professions requiring a college degree include: Physician, Dentist, Pharmacist, Registered Nurse, Physical Therapist, Lawyer, K-12 Teacher, College Professor, Engineer, Architect, Scientist, CPA, Veterinarian, and others.

Therefore, if a person feels called or has a passion for a field that requires a college degree due to regulation by the government or other PTB (Powers That Be), there is no alternative.

Without a clear life plan, pursuing a college degree just because someone says, "it's always a GOOD idea," doesn't hold water. These college cheerleading statements should provide the following fine print: "Past performance is not indicative of future results, " and "Returns may vary and are not guaranteed."

As I write these statements in November 2025, there are millions of college-degreed workers without jobs. And if any of these workers have massive college debt (not to mention other debts), they are between a rock and a hard place.

If the wishful thinking of the AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) prophets and disciples is valid, many more college-educated jobs will be eliminated in the future.

If someone desires to play this cat-and-mouse job game, in which field should one pursue a college degree?

With a cheap piece of sweet-smelling paper called a "diploma," you are not "guaranteed" anything. And you will be competing with a massive crowd of people who also have diplomas for the same positions. In short, the markets are overflooded with diploma-carrying indentured servants.

In days of yore, due to many reasons believed valid at that time, we as a society were brainwashed by industry in bed with government and educational organizations to think that smart people go to college and dumb people go into the trades. Shop classes were terminated in many high schools due to faith in the college education religion. Parents and caregivers trained their children to think the same way. And it worked for a long time.

As a result of this massive push for students to go to college, the cost of a college education has risen faster than the cost of healthcare.

Those magnificent days of yore are fast approaching a tipping point. And, the trades are making a comeback for a very good reason.

When deciding on a career path, COUNT THE COSTS, both direct costs and lost earnings costs over 4 to 5 years (or longer, depending on the degree). If massive debt is involved, this significantly affects the costs. Additionally, what is the statistical likelihood of securing employment with a specific degree, 4 to 5 years after starting college?

Then make an informed decision on which path to follow, given your talents and desires.

And remember: "Returns may vary and are not guaranteed," and "Past performance is not indicative of future results."

H Bhajan

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Theresa okava if you can please kindly reply with more details about free federal program with an exam I would greatly appreciate it. I have a senior in high school who has his P P L(private pilot license /certificate) and wants a career in commercial aviation. I’m a first gen college graduate myself and struggle to guide him on a good path for what he wants to accomplish, so many things are changing quickly it seems. I understand if it was many years ago but it will still give me an idea of what to search for. Thank you all for sharing this information, it is so valuable.

Tereza Okava

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posted 1 day ago

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I hear you on your desire to help your kid, H Bhajan, that was me as well.

There are free federal universities across Latin America. We moved to Brazil. Although my daughter is a citizen (multiple nationalities) Brazil also allows refugees and immigrants with legal status to take the exams and study. Other countries like Mexico, Chile, etc I'm not sure. Of course, the exams are subject specific and in the language of the land, which is a lot to get in order for a senior in high school.

That said, there certainly must be things in English-speaking countries-- Singapore has air traffic training institutes and accepts international students.

John Weiland

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H Bhajan wrote:......I have a senior in high school who has his P P L(private pilot license /certificate) and wants a career in commercial aviation. I’m a first gen college graduate myself and struggle to guide him on a good path for what he wants to accomplish, so many things are changing quickly it seems. I understand if it was many years ago but it will still give me an idea of what to search for. ...

If he does not mind cold winters, the program at the University of North Dakota may have special scholarships for his interests:

https://aero.und.edu/success-center/index.html

https://aero.und.edu/aviation/current-students/career-pathways.html

Good luck!

“The most important decision we make is whether we believe we live in a friendly or hostile universe.”― Albert Einstein

paul wheaton

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I think that if a person is about to enter college and get a free ride, then college is delightful. A beautiful experience. And you learn stuff too.

Traditionally, the idea was that when you graduate, you would get a higher paying job. And throughout your career, the pay would keep going up and you eventually repay those student loans. And then the professional pay would continue to set you up for an easy retirement at 65.

This thread started with a woman asking about returning to college to finish her degree. Put in just two more years to get that piece of paper, and, hopefully, the skills to be a software engineer.

Because she is currently working several low paying part time jobs, and she is exploring getting better paying jobs, I concluded that she would need to get loans to pull off college.

The root of this whole thread is

to speculate on if going to college will result in a higher paying job

Using the mighty power of imagination, think of what life will be like five years in the future. And to look back from that point to see who made smart choices and who made poor choices. All of this contemplation is so that we (including the woman in question) could make wise choices today.

What is life going to be like with 70% unemployment?

If your whole life is set up with having a job, complete with cash flow, and you cannot get a job, but you still need money to eat, what happens?

I am suggesting that the smart people are those that have a humble home and a huge garden will be the wisest. Far wiser than the people that need 40 years of strong, reliable cash flow.

Perhaps this woman would be 1000x more comfortable if she spent those 2 years pursuing skip. Or joining the bootcamp.

my kickstarter is now live!

Gordon Blair

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posted 1 day ago

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Anne Miller wrote:By the way, acting as a career choice is going away ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilly_Norwood

Kill it with digital fire...

This thing can only be viable because the mainstream alternative has become THAT generic and vapid.

Dan Robinson

Posts: 21

Location: Sale Creek, TN

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What is life going to be like with 70% unemployment?

If your whole life is set up with having a job, complete with cash flow, and you cannot get a job, but you still need money to eat, what happens?

I am suggesting that the smart people are those that have a humble home and a huge garden will be the wisest. Far wiser than the people that need 40 years of strong, reliable cash flow.

Perhaps this woman would be 1000x more comfortable if she spent those 2 years pursuing skip. Or joining the bootcamp.

Paul makes many excellent points that I agree with.

One question might be: How does one obtain a "humble home" with which to grow "huge gardens" without appropriate financial resources?

Property in most parts of the country is becoming extremely difficult to obtain without significant financial arrangements.

I was fortunate to purchase approximately 12 acres of forested property using an IRA account during a real estate crash — one of the best financial decisions I have ever made. I have more space to grow gardens (and lots of deer and other critters to eat those gardens) than you can shake a stick at, not to mention other modern survival types of things I could do if I ever get around to doing them before I kick the bucket.

If I had waited until now, I would not have had the financial means to purchase that property; moreover, it would have been sold a long time ago.

However, the IRA account and future additional resources for property development were obtained through indentured servitude to Big Monkeys in the Corporate Jungle.

Most people are not this fortunate. And it is becoming increasingly tough to make a go of it out there in La La Land due to inflation and the rise of AIBC (Artificial Intelligence Bull Crap) taking over the world.

Therefore, people will need to be really creative in navigating this situation.

One of the things I appreciate about communities like this one is the idea generation and practical applications that lead to modern survival.

Here is the bottom line:

Things and the world are changing rapidly. Paradigms that served us well in the past no longer hold. Don't get caught up in holding onto those outdated concepts, such as "a college education leading to indentured servitude to corporate elites ensures nirvana and paradise on earth."

Become the CEO of your life. Stay in creative thinking mode, and learn from others. Grow gardens and barter with neighbors, even if the humble home is a tent with a rocket mass heater.

paul wheaton

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One question might be: How does one obtain a "humble home" with which to grow "huge gardens" without appropriate financial resources?

SKIP: get 200 acres, 2 homes, rigs, coin, etc. for zero money.

Join the bootcamp. If a person spends 4 years in a leadership role here I will give you an acre with a humble home and a huge garden. Like allerton abbey

my kickstarter is now live!

Lina Joana

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paul wheaton wrote:

One question might be: How does one obtain a "humble home" with which to grow "huge gardens" without appropriate financial resources?

SKIP: get 200 acres, 2 homes, rigs, coin, etc. for zero money.

Join the bootcamp. If a person spends 4 years in a leadership role here I will give you an acre with a humble home and a huge garden. Like allerton abbey

I can’t see this, or anything, preparing someone for 70% unemployment. For context, the height of the Great Depression saw 25% unemployment.
If it comes to that, there will either be a complete and utter collapse of society which will include the big businesses and AI (nobody to buy their products) or there will be a new economic model.

In the first scenario: How will the farmer who supposed to will his land to the skipper hang on to his land long enough to do so? How will he pay taxes when his bank crashes, taking his savings? How will he finish out farming when there is nobody who can afford to buy the crops he sells? Same questions apply even if you own land- how will you pay for electricity to run your well? How will you replace those 20-year lifespan solar panels? Or the well pump, or the excavator parts, or or or…
Upshot - lets hope this doesn’t happen. It is never a bad idea to own land, learn skills, and do a bit of “prepping”. But I personally don’t think that this will save you if we are talking full societal disintegration. Then again, I have never met a gert - only farmers trying hard to live by those principles, and finding it tremendously difficult. So maybe my perspective is incomplete.

Lina
https://catsandcardamom.com

John F Dean

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One of the complexities of employment is to define it. To me, a disturbing number of people do not see minimum wage as employment. I don’t know how well someone can live on a homestead with zero employment. I am certain that it can be done with a 20 hour a week minimum wage job.
And that will put a family far ahead of someone who “knows” they are worth more than that and refuses to work for less than what they “know” they are worth.

I suspect that part of being a Permie is the ability to define your self work in terms that go beyond $$.

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To do is to be ..Nietzsche
Do be do be do…Sinatra
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M Ljin

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May I suggest building community and working with community as an alternative to jobs?

Of course jobs are helpful, but they are essentially a way of buying into a more industrialized, standardized form of community security, the agreement that “we will give you symbolic value in exchange for your servitude which you can use to access the following commodities, which you are dependent upon because we have robbed you of all your knowledge of how to be a wild human being”.

For natural community, the agreement is more like, “Be a nice person, do your best at being fully human, and we will support you when you fall.”

Definitely, a family can support itself perfectly fine off the land, and it has been demonstrated countless times through history, but it helps to have the security of “if I fall, I can ask my neighbors/kin to help me back up”. I heard somewhere that an Amazonian Indian man, asked why he doesn’t store the meat he hunts, but gives it away, says, “I store my meat in the belly of my brother.”

The trick is living in concert with the land, because the land regenerates, whereas the world economy mostly parasitizes and sends your energy upwards to be used whimsically and thoughtlessly by those richer than yourself. I think that college debt can put a pressure not only on the individual, but on the community, which loses the labor power of the young, energetic people who can help work the soil, build terraces, plant trees, and in general make efforts toward genuine progress towards a natural and regenerative future.

Dan Robinson

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Location: Sale Creek, TN

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Lina Joana wrote:

I can’t see this, or anything, preparing someone for 70% unemployment. For context, the height of the Great Depression saw 25% unemployment.

I don't think things will get that bad anytime soon. Keep in mind that the emperors of AI are mostly all talk and hype as they move toward AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). They need to attract trillions of dollars from investors to realize their dream of building the Tower of Babel, not to mention government regulations friendly to their cause.

The massive elephant in the room is energy. To achieve this dream of paradise (mainly for the elites behind the scenes), these data centers, which run the AI algorithms, will consume massive amounts of energy that the electrical grids cannot currently support, not to mention the increasing number of electric vehicles.

Therefore, research and development funding are needed for nuclear energy and micro-nuclear reactors. They are also converting natural gas and bringing back online coal-fired plants (to the chagrin of environmentalists) to supply this energy. Then there is computer chip production and research to support these efforts.

I believe many of the high-tech workers who recently lost their jobs did not do so because they were replaced by robots (i.e., algorithms). It is because these AI companies are diverting investment dollars to build out the infrastructure that supports their dreams of wishing upon a star. And they must do this in a fashion that keeps Wall Street investors happy; in other words, the financials must remain robust. Of course, these carnival-barking CEOs and executives are doing song and dance routines with the public to minimize negative PR.

Sooner or later, there may be a day of reckoning when the return on investment does not justify the money spent, and investors become frightened. If that happens, this house of cards might come tumbling down. Also, what happens if the economy crashes for reasons unrelated to AI?

So, there are obstacles that may prevent (or at least slow down) the construction of the Empire of AI.

Here is food for thought:

How much energy is consumed by AI algorithms to do simple things that humans can do with far less energy consumption than a robot?

How much money are companies (and consumers) willing to pay for AI, which requires massive energy consumption, to implement into their processes? And how much money will they save by doing so?

Unless a robot costs less than $200 and can massage my back, wash my dishes, bring me a beer, and keep its mouth shut, I'm not buying.

Tristan Vitali

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Lina Joana wrote:
I can’t see this, or anything, preparing someone for 70% unemployment. For context, the height of the Great Depression saw 25% unemployment.
If it comes to that, there will either be a complete and utter collapse of society which will include the big businesses and AI (nobody to buy their products) or there will be a new economic model.

In the first scenario: How will the farmer who supposed to will his land to the skipper hang on to his land long enough to do so? How will he pay taxes when his bank crashes, taking his savings? How will he finish out farming when there is nobody who can afford to buy the crops he sells? Same questions apply even if you own land- how will you pay for electricity to run your well? How will you replace those 20-year lifespan solar panels? Or the well pump, or the excavator parts, or or or…
Upshot - lets hope this doesn’t happen. It is never a bad idea to own land, learn skills, and do a bit of “prepping”. But I personally don’t think that this will save you if we are talking full societal disintegration. Then again, I have never met a gert - only farmers trying hard to live by those principles, and finding it tremendously difficult. So maybe my perspective is incomplete.

A new economic model indeed. Or perhaps we could think of it in the sense of "the old economic model" where people were/are subsistence farmers, sell what little surplus they have and/or trade based on their practical skill sets (masonry, carpentry, blacksmithing, etc), and eek out a fairly fulfilling existence within their tight-nit communities, raising a family and teaching their children the trade.

The "prepper community" often speaks of this sort of collapse stemming from an economic implosion and point to things like gold, silver, .22 ammo and practical skill sets as "worthwhile investments for trade and barter in that dire future". Even things like alcohol and tobacco fit that bill - imagine something similar to the so-called prison economy at a community level where you can buy some apples from the guy down the road for a few packs of cigarettes.

In that sort of scenario, the government "adjusts" - a good thing to remember is that government is downstream of culture, and culture is a product of community.

Would it ever get to that point? I say "sure, why not?" - anything is possible. Add in a few natural disasters, collapse of social services like policing and welfare programs, and mobs of angry people who don't have practical skills like growing/raising food. College can't prepare you for that world and was never designed to. Instead, college prepares you only for the "rat race" world of earn money - spend money. If that fails you for any reason (such as AI taking over everything), the only conventional alternatives available to the college graduate are tax-payer funded social welfare programs or criminal activities.

If we're heading in that direction, or anything like it, I'd prefer to have millions of Gerts-in-training out there who would be much more equipped to succeed and perhaps flourish in a world with no money, no jobs and no holds barred. "Gert" is someone I don't foresee robbing and thieving as a way of life. "Gert" is a valuable, productive and highly appreciated member of a community. In fact, a community might gather around "Gert" in such a scenario in an effort to learn from her insight and understanding of how systems work, allowing the whole community to become "Gerts" themselves (Gert the carpenter living next door to Gert the blacksmith, both growing most of their own food and trading their skills / surplus for things they don't grow or can't do).

Will AI cause a 70% unemployment? I personally doubt the number, but it's certainly not making things "better". Some numbers on unemployment (such as those that include "underemployment" and those who've given up looking for work) show us to be much worse now than during the Great Depression already.

Another thing that comes to mind: Big corporations spend gobs of money trying to astro-turf culture for a reason. Collapsing society through economic implosion would be bad business. Adopting a new economic model is something they have spent a lot of time on already. We've heard some truly out-there ideas over the years of what models they'd like to bring in, but from this vantage point, they don't seem to have a solid idea of what new culture they'd like to roll out. Much of what they've "presented" to us as "options" thus far have been flatly rejected by most cultures around the world ("own nothing be happy" rental-only economies, universal basic income, smart cities, population reduction, etc).

From a purely selfish point of view, I'd rather have a generation of Gerts than a generation of college educated debt-slaves if ANYTHING dire occurs, be it AI-apocalypse or some other obvious and foreseeable future catastrophe

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Jay Angler

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I have been, and still am, very supportive of the SkIP program. If you work through even just the first level of a wide variety of BB's, you will learn how to do things that other people have to pay money for. I have way too many people asking me to fix things for them which 100 years ago, virtually all women, and many men, would have been able to mend, alter, or sew from scratch. I have done several projects for SkIP, or just because I wanted to, that were predominantly made from upcycled material. Many of them were done totally by hand, so a variety of needles, thread, pins/clips, and decent scissors are all you need to own.

Example: A friend had a butterfly net and the netting has solar degraded to the point she was going to throw it out. The frame and extendable handle are in excellent shape. I'm now dusting off my crotchet skills and I will try to make it a new net. Will I succeed? Maybe. Do I care? No - it's too dark and cold to work outside in the evenings - why not keep my hands busy while listening to a talking book, or chatting to a friend? The bigger point - if I can crotchet a small net, I could crotchet a large net to catch fish.

Example: I built a small portable shelter for 1/2 dozen chickens a couple of decades ago. Lessons learned: 1. Regardless of what other people told me, flat roofs *don't* work in my ecosystem. 2. I'm a 110 lb female on a narrow frame. I *need* portable shelters to either have wheels, be very light, or both.

This is the sort of thing people need to be learning now, rather than waiting until they unexpectedly loose their job. But our system wants us craving instant gratification from television or the computer, instead of putting our hands to work.

SkIP is one way to inspire you to try new skills, and document your successes. There are plenty of other ways, but this is free, inclusive, accessible and available. There are no weekly Repair Cafe's in my area. The Maker Space which was a 25 min drive away, was taken over by a Cabal. So SkIP it is, unless I start something myself.

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Anne Miller

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posted 19 hours ago

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Gordon Blair wrote:Kill it with digital fire...

This thing can only be viable because the mainstream alternative has become THAT generic and vapid.

So I have no idea what you are saying???

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Beth Sqwallah

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Writer and computer scientist professor Cal Newport has some very useful thoughts and breakdown of why AI *isn’t* going to take everyone’s jobs and what the limits are on achieving super intelligence. He also (on other podcast episodes than this one which is very focused on AI questions) has good advice generally on how to get to move to the country and spend most of your time doing things you love..
https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/deep-questions-with-cal-newport/id1515786216?i=1000735022877

Susan Mené

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paul wheaton wrote:

Susan Mené wrote: We all wandered down the wrong path, I guess. Just to clarify, What solutions were were you looking for? Solutions to get more people into permaculture, or skip, or ERE. or FIRE? Or was it more personal to your situation, like getting people into bootcamp? Or raising awareness of what is to come and the need for society to rapidly shift the definition of success? Or expanding permaculture communities?
My original response was suggesting that aside from working the land, both hands-on and compassion type life callings are largely robot proof. And will be needed/beneficial in all communities.

Suppose 70% of jobs are gone.

Without exploring politics and what the world will be like ... I am attempting to explore what does permaculture provide as solutions.

My brain seems thoroughly stuck in "gertitude". A humble home and a huge garden.

My brain also offers up the automatic backyard food pump.

My brain also turns to how to get land. SKIP. Bootcamp.

I am thinking that there are a dozen more things to add to this list, but I am so biased with my own stuff, maybe I cannot see it.

Thanks, Paul for clarifying.
Reading your OP over and over made me think that maybe we don't need more solutions, but ways to awaken people to "real" living and a new perspective on luxury.
Gert is a huge part--if not the best--answer. Not sayin' it to stroke your ego. This is not a situation in which one needs to need to be ringing bells or kissing rings.
But how to spread the message? In my experience, the best way to introduce the message of GERT is through through appealing to their tastebuds, stomachs, and wallets. If I talk about soil, or seed saving, or planting sprouted onions, garlic or potatoes, or the exquisite luxury of getting clean after getting filthy in the dirt, their eyes glaze over. When I give them homemade raspberry jam made with home grown and foraged berries, a bag of tomatoes or peppers, and do it again, and maybe again, then invite them to "pick their own" while visiting, their minds slowly open, questions get asked, and a few have started their journey into gardening. So, I feed people to spread the message. Feeding people in some way, sharing the harvest with food banks, or allowing some supervised gleaning, invite the local TV news team for a meal and a tour: feeding people can be used to inform and inspire interest in skip, bootcamp, Gert, permaculture, and a change in priorities.
I am living kind of like Gert; Gert in densely populated suburbia. I aspire to be full Gert. Can I grow all my own food? Nope, not yet, working on it on my shy acre. I forage, I pressure can/water bath can, I make my own bread when I want it, make "yarn" from old clothing and crochet into mediocre rugs and blankets among other skills that seem useless to the outside world. Leaning into, immersing myself, living permaculture and homesteading in place is my new career. I know where my money is if I need it.
How many times have I heard, "You know you can buy that in a store, right?".
I respond with "You know I can grow that myself, right?"
It definitely makes them think twice.

I choose...to be the best me I can be, to be the strongest me I can be, to learn the most I can. I don't know what comes next. But I'm gonna go into it balls to the walls, flames in my hair, and full speed ahead.

Joshua States

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How I feel about AI......

AI-Job.JPG

“So I'm lightin' out for the territory, ahead of the scared and the weak and the mean spirited, because Aunt Sally is fixin’ to adopt me and civilize me, and I can't stand it. I've been there before.”

Hal Schibel

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posted 46 minutes ago

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As someone with five college degrees, I will usually advise people against going to college.

The only reason I would say to go is if they want to do something very specific and you can't talk them out of it. I had something very specific in mind and could not get into it once I graduated. If I could go back in time and give myself advice, I would tell myself to go to trade school and become a carpenter. Recently I have been thinking that you should always be wary of career advice from anyone if it is not something you can act upon immediately. With how fast the world is changing, by the time you can act upon the advice, the context will have changed and it will no longer be relevant.

My main piece of advice to anyone considering college is to be wary of any institution that sells you on "feelings" rather than actual accomplishments.

I greatly enjoyed school and felt like I was accomplishing a lot because I would feel good about myself when i got my good grades and my diplomas. But when I got out into the real world, what mattered wasn't the information I thought I was learning but forgot as soon as the test was over, it was the ability to work. But even then abilities don't always matter. The hard part is getting a job without any experience. You need experience to get one of the "higher-paying" jobs, not just a degree. Some of them don't even care about a degree (including software engineering jobs). And the experience you need is usually extremely specific. Job boards did not help me at all. I only got jobs by talking to people.

One thing that drove me through school was fear. Fear of not being able to support myself. Fear of not being able to support my parents as they got older. And pride that I must be super smart and I can get the highest paying jobs no problem because I had good grades. I had an adviser early on encourage me to go into science because "I was good at math." I was not able to find a job in science. I went back to school for my second master's in 2020 due to fear that the job market was going to be tough to navigate and I wanted to expand my skills so I could cast a wider net. I did actually learn a lot from that degree program that I am using in my personal time, but I have not gotten any jobs in that field.

Earlier this year I lost my job to the return to office trend (after I had gotten permission to move out of state and have been living here for two years). Due to the fortunate financial position my husband and I are in, I have not been looking for a new one. We bought our house two years ago for much less than we could technically afford on two full-time salaries and we are actually able to afford it on one. My "job" is now finding ways to save us money, which I consider to be just as much a salary as having a job. Going to work and getting paid is just an energy exchange, and if I can funnel that energy back into my home and my family then that's pretty comparable to me going to work. The SKIP program has been awesome for this as it is helping me to set up systems on our property and is helping me to learn skills that are actively helping us save money and will continue to help us save money. Some of the projects require an investment of materials and tools that is taking some time to acquire, but the investment is worthwhile and now when I do "assignments," I have an actual physical thing that I produced instead of just a number on a piece of paper to make me feel good about my "accomplishments."

In terms of AI and automation, people will always find ways to automate the simple tasks that are not worth their time...so they can spend more of their time on what actually matters. It will definitely shake things up, but would you rather be putting effort toward a job that a computer can't do rather than a task that is pretty useless because it can just be automated? Not saying that all tasks that AI is being used for is useless, but that is one way to use it.

-Halley

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