Deborah Harr wrote: Until this "tax" the United States produced roughly 84% of the world market of phosphorus rock.
The U.S. consumes about 85% of domestic production. The remaining 15% is exported.
The U.S produces somewhere around 20% of world production. China produces 2.5 times as much and Morocco and the U.S. produce an almost identical amount. The Chineese have had the wisdom to reserve most further production for domestic usage which has allowed the US to claim a larger chunk of the export market.
The big winner in this is Morocco. Since they need very little of this product for domestic usage they have been able to seize a huge chunk of the world market.
The U.S. is expected to have a deficit of rock phosphate within 15 years if current mining and comsumption levels are maintained. The wise thing to do would be to follow China's lead and ban further export. I doubt that this will happen.
Update --- It turns out I was looking at dated information from the late 90s. The U.S. no longer produces for the export market and some is now imported. Morocco is now the only major exporter with most other production worldwide being used domestically by the producers. In 2010 Morocco supplied about 10% of the U.S. market.
Peak phosphorus may have already been reached and shortages of it are likely to occur before other major fertilizers are depleted substantially.Estimates vary, but aparently the world has enough to last 200 years but the easiest to get at reserves will be largely depleted in 20 years. So the price will go up.
Gleaned this from wikipedia ---" Morocco possesses 75 percent of the world's phosphate reserves. It is the world's first exporter (28% of the global market) and third producer (20% of global production). In 2005, Morocco produced 27.254 million tons of phosphates and 5.895 million tons of phosphate derivatives." (I assume they mean currently economically viable reserves with that 75% figure. There are maps showing low grade reserves all over the globe.The 28% portion of the export market was before the top two competitors dropped out of exporting, so that figure will grow substantialy) I could see a cartel situation developing. Morrocco's position would be stronger than that of Saudi Arabia's position within OPEC.
Other producers are ramping up production following Chineese and American withdrawl from export markets. Jordan saw an 88% increase in profits from export in 2011 and a new mine and port are due to open soon. Countries lacking in environmental controls and those with cheap labour are the most likely to tap new supplies.
This is from Yale 360 report --- Even more critically in the longer term, the U.S. Geological Survey says that of the 65 billion tons of the world’s known phosphate rock reserves — and the estimated 16 billion tons that might be economic to mine — almost 80 percent is in Western Sahara and Morocco. Add in China’s reserves, and the figure rises to almost 90 percent. The U.S., with 1.4 billion tons, is close to running out. You can see why agronomists are starting to get worried.
The world is not about to run out of phosphate. But demand is rising, most of the best reserves are gone, and those that remain are in just a handful of countries. Dana Cordell of Linkoping University in Sweden, who runs an academic group called the Global Phosphorus Research Initiative, says we could hit “peak phosphorus” production by around 2030.
As domestic production wanes, the U.S. is starting to join those countries — most of the world, in fact — that import phosphate from Morocco and the Western Sahara. American imports cross the Atlantic courtesy of Potash Corp, the Canada-based fertilizer company whose hostile takeover bid by the Australian mining giant BHP Billiton was blocked by the Canadian government last year. And phosphate mining in Florida, which is home to the world’s largest phosphate mine, is being challenged by environmentalists concerned about its impact on waterways and drinking water supplies.
Me again --- So far as I know, The back haul arrangement that Potash Corp has with American buyers of Moroccan Phospherous is the largest fertilizer back haul deal in the world. With about 60% of known reserves of potash, Canada sends out many ships that leave heavy and return empty, so as American imports From Morocco increase, it only makes sense to use these otherwise empty bulk haulers to supply the American market.
All of this just because I saw a number that I knew was way, way off.
The trick with this stuff is to always search out world reserves or world production. Numbers from any given producer will often cite figures based on 100% of that country's production. The smaller the player, the less that information means on a global level.---- Coastal British Columbia contains at least 95% of Canada's palm
trees but we are a very small producer of palm trees with only a few thousand specimens, so the figure is meaningless.