Might the last frost be a month early?

I know that the last frost generally doesn't vary much, but I'm up here in zone 6a Ohio and really, really, really wanting to get started on gardening.

We had a day in the upper 60s last week, I was out putzing in the garden in January this year and we've had negligible snow. My daffs are like two inches tall and on a walk today, I saw some dwarf irises out—three weeks or so earlier than normal.

Would starting seeds two to three weeks early this year be foolish or a good bet?

Mother Nature is going to do what Mother Nature is going to do. No way to know for sure. I'll say that I always start a few things earlier & later than what Farmer's Almanac or whatever other guide says. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't.

I'm also in the midwest, and getting that same kind of weather. I have killed too many plants by putting them out early. I am cautious now. Mike Barkley is right, start some early, but have more to replace them with if you lose them. If it's valuable plants, make cheaper ones earlier.

I wish I trusted it, but one year everyone in town pretty much put their tomatoes out and we had a VERY late freeze, and they lost them. I was still keeping mine in pots, way too big, and getting moved in and out every day, but I didn't get froze out.

I vote start early, but have backups ready to go if you fail the dice roll.

:D

one thing we have observed is that plants which are started/planted earlier will often be supersedes by plants started later.

the plants might withstand the earlier planting, however is there enough energy/sunlight for them to grow? I think without adequate sunlight starting early might not be best. Plants can become leggy, stressed from being in a pot. Leggy winter brassicas come to mind.

I have found often times the earlier started ones require quite a lot of care. I am not sure if this has just happened over time or what, but it seems me and my partner have both come to this conclusion. Our regional advisor that we follow has also suggested starting things later on than she has in the past. Onions started in march, instead of early February, for instance.

Vegetables started too early just have to live longer in less-than ideal conditions of small pots and imperfect lighting.

quote from http://www.lindagilkeson.ca/gardening-pdf/Winter%20Gardening%202023%20-%20February%2020.pdf

Constancia Wiweru wrote:I know that the last frost generally doesn't vary much,

the last frost date is an average- it might be a month early, or it might be three weeks late, after weeks and weeks of no-frost weather. the dice are just going to roll regardless, it’s for us to decide what we have riding on them.

still, some seeds can be started now, and there’s other things to be done in the garden even if it isn’t time for seeds just yet.

You guys are killing me. Quit yer whining!

My reliable planting date is the third week of May. My first frost is the second week of September. Reliable growing window: 120 days, but with long intense hours of sunlight in the middle.

Mostly I want to get my hands in the dirt, and that's a long way away! End of rant. Carry on.

I have used something that I learned is called phenology most of my life.

When I was a kid in Oklahoma we always got a dip in temperature on Easter Sunday so I had to wear a coat over my pretty new Easter dress.

And I use Halloween as an indication of the first frost because I had to wear a coat over my Halloween costume.

I have used Easter as a planting date.

Since being on the forum I have learned to watch the mesquite trees to bud out so I can plant.

https://permies.com/t/phenology

I save an abundance of my own seeds so with a good supply on hand, more and more, I have started planting whenever the weather feels like spring. If it's warm and the ground is workable, I plant. If I have to replant and start over that's ok. I wouldn't do that if I had just a few seeds or had to buy seeds.

Douglas Alpenstock wrote:You guys are killing me. Quit yer whining!

My reliable planting date is the third week of May.

Must be nice, mine is the first week of June...

Anne Miller wrote:I have used something that I learned is called phenology most of my life.

When I was a kid in Oklahoma we always got a dip in temperature on Easter Sunday so I had to wear a coat over my pretty new Easter dress.

And I use Halloween as an indication of the first frost because I had to wear a coat over my Halloween costume.

I have used Easter as a planting date.

Since being on the forum I have learned to watch the mesquite trees to bud out so I can plant.

https://permies.com/t/phenology

Anne, thanks for giving me a word for this!  I do feel that the longer I have been gardening in one place, the more I rely on the flora and fauna to tell me what is about to happen.

From Gene Logsdon, I believe it was in his Growing Small Grains - paraphrased - when you get the itch and it's warm out, plant oats and peas.

If you have anything that is a winter lover already, go for it. I think we have all had enough experience with late frost to understand academically that we shouldn't jump the gun, buuuuut we'll all still do it again because darn it I want to get dirty and see sprouts!

I have had this itch many times, and rarely has scratching it paid off. Where it has, the survivors were peas and oats mentioned above, as well as other soil builders like favas and daikon. It worked with some diverse wildflower mixes as well.

Its all the more reason to save seed from diverse species and from diverse phenotypes within species. Edible Forest Gardens point out that temperate forest species have much greater within-species diversity than the tropics, which have more different species. I wonder if this is partially due to temperate species facing seasonal and yearly fluctuations in things like first/last frost date, so it benefits temperate species to have a wide range of genetics to have something succeed most years.

I like to try to make a point to save seed from the first, last, biggest yielding and best flavored (or some other preferable quality like color). Saving seed from those that succeed with an early or late planting would also be useful.

Another approach to this early planting itch might be making seed balls like Fukuoka outlines in One Straw Revolution, and spreading some of these right away and some later. The clay and compost helps protect the seed until its warm and wet enough to germinate. Loose, long straw mulch over the top of the seed balls protects the soil and seedlings.

I don't know about the last frost date being early or not but for many places in the south and eastern US, spring is earlier this year up to one month! Check out the national phenology network website for your region.

I usually record the blooming time of hazelnut in my yard as it is the earliest harbinger of spring. This year the date is 10 days earlier than last year. From my experience, if March is warm then in April it's going to slash back and have late frost or snow. I am not worrying about annual veggies because I save lots of seeds and stagger the planting. Fruit trees are more vulnerable and I can't hold them back from breaking dormancy too early. Hopefully March will cool down a bit and the last frost day comes around April 10th as predicted.

In N. Ohio (my family has been here 200+ yrs.) we have had two years in the last ten that had unusually warm Februarys. Followed by cold and wet March's. Plant early if you want, but most probably the last frost will be the usual time.

but for many places in the south and eastern US, spring is earlier this year up to one month!  

That seems to be the case here in the deep south this year. I already have some peas, potatoes, spinach, endive, chard, onions, & bok choy planted. Starting a few tomatoes today. Have seen a few leaves on fig & persimmon trees. Buds & blossoms on some blueberries. Every week I'll keep adding more. If some things need to be redone due to late frosts so be it.

It's looking like it could get chilly next month in my area, but not freeze. I'm planning to put out the tomatoes and basil on Palm Sunday as my grandma told me to, just to be safe.

If you got an itch to scratch you could start with some frost hardy veggies.

Constancia Wiweru wrote:I know that the last frost generally doesn't vary much, but I'm up here in zone 6a Ohio and really, really, really wanting to get started on gardening.
We had a day in the upper 60s last week, I was out putzing in the garden in January this year and we've had negligible snow. My daffs are like two inches tall and on a walk today, I saw some dwarf irises out—three weeks or so earlier than normal.
Would starting seeds two to three weeks early this year be foolish or a good bet?

Folks in Wisconsin zone 4b are having the same problem. We really have not had a winter. We have not had a single day below zero F. On this forum, folks who do maple syrup are in the same quandary: Tap now or do it by the calendar. Today, 3/6/23, our temperature is 32F and cloudy.
We just received 2" of snow overnight and it is melting already.
This feels way outside of norms for my area. This is what we are getting this March:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/wisconsin-rapids/54494/march-weather/336513
But we were getting this in February as well. I am worried a bit about the lack of precipitations too as most of this winter has been mild and DRY.
I have started my sweet potato slips and I hope the weather doesn't turn cold and rainy in May.

Cécile Stelzer Johnson wrote:On this forum, folks who do maple syrup are in the same quandary: Tap now or do it by the calendar. Today, 3/6/23, our temperature is 32F and cloudy.

On the maple syrup, you have to do it according to temps/ when the sap runs. If they miss their window, they'll  miss out!

At least with what I'm planting, if I'm late it'll still work. My garlic is so tall!!! Wonder if all of this will affect harvest times.

Constancia Wiweru wrote:

Cécile Stelzer Johnson wrote:On this forum, folks who do maple syrup are in the same quandary: Tap now or do it by the calendar. Today, 3/6/23, our temperature is 32F and cloudy.

On the maple syrup, you have to do it according to temps/ when the sap runs. If they miss their window, they'll  miss out!

Ay last with what I'm planting, if I'm late it'll still work. My garlic is so tall!!! Wonder if all of this will affect harvest times.

Yep: For the maple sap to be running, it has to freeze at night and thaw in the daytime. I feel like we've had maple syrup time all winter! I heard that some folks tapped early this year. Others are saying tap by the calendar. I don't have enough maples to tap. I planted 3 but they are still too small. I would tap them early, just in case it starts warming up and the season is over when the calendar says it's time to start tapping.
I am looking for sugar maple seeds. I would plant them in my woods, here and there, as all my red oaks have the wilt; they are all on their way out. the area will need shade. I could do some maple syrup with all the dead oaks we have: I'd never run out of wood.
I'll be long dead by the time they can be tapped, I'm sure, but I like the idea of starting a legacy. Plus, they do look gorgeous in the fall.
I'm expecting to receive some tupelos, too, next month. It might be a bit too far north, but it is getting warm enough to try, and they also have a gorgeous fall color.

My garlic is about 6 inches tall, already, and my Rhubarb crowns arrived, so (since it said they could be planted now, in my zone 6b) I planted them. I didn't do any seed starting, this year, because it never goes well, for me - but, I'm antsy to get out there! And early 'last frost' might be great. If we are so lucky...

Carla Burke wrote:My garlic is about 6 inches tall, already, and my Rhubarb crowns arrived, so (since it said they could be planted now, in my zone 6b) I planted them. I didn't do any seed starting, this year, because it never goes well, for me - but, I'm antsy to get out there! And early 'last frost' might be great. If we are so lucky...

I’m curious what you decided to do…

Constancia Wiweru wrote:

Cécile Stelzer Johnson wrote:On this forum, folks who do maple syrup are in the same quandary: Tap now or do it by the calendar. Today, 3/6/23, our temperature is 32F and cloudy.

On the maple syrup, you have to do it according to temps/ when the sap runs. If they miss their window, they'll  miss out!

A local maple sugaring operation here (6b) already missed their window - they said their sap run was 20% of average and it's pretty much over as of now.

Chris Vee wrote:

Carla Burke wrote:My garlic is about 6 inches tall, already, and my Rhubarb crowns arrived, so (since it said they could be planted now, in my zone 6b) I planted them. I didn't do any seed starting, this year, because it never goes well, for me - but, I'm antsy to get out there! And early 'last frost' might be great. If we are so lucky...

I’m curious what you decided to do…

We're still having to many nights in the 20s, so all I'm doing right now is checking on my perennials, & getting the beehive ready for the bees (mid- April), so they can settle in, while the peach & rebus are blooming. We've had a steady flow of company, this month, mixed with other social stuff, too. But, after Sunday, in going to be digging out my seeds, taking inventory, making my selections, and prepping my raised beds.

I've always said that weather always averages out. We'll see. All it takes is one cold spell to end our early gardening plans err dreams.

I'm still waiting for fruit tree scions I ordered for early March delivery to be shipped from California. They must know something.