Increasing food prices based on how much square meter of land is left per person? Bad News!

Drastically increasing food prices made me thinking and researching a lot and finally my wife and I decided to buy 5 acre Land and going back to our roots. (We both grew up on farms in Germany and Thailand)
We also joined permies to see what our grandparents and parents did wrong and how to use it wisely without destroying our future.
Also we want as many other permies function as an example for others.

During this research I bumped on this article:

The Earth has 675,474,983,468,576 m² in total surface area. 71% of Earths surface is water so there are 479,587,238,262,688.96 m² of water and 195,887,745,205,887.04 m² of land

So if just split up the whole world evenly most everyone is going to get (d)ucked and only get a puddle of salt water.

So let's assume we don't distribute the oceans.
195,887,745,205,887.04 m² divided by 7,865,502,590 (the number on the worlds population clock when I pulled it up to answer this question its actually higher now.)
Is 24,904.670 m² rounded to the nearest mm.

Even with this almost 30% of Earths land is uninhabitable which means a lot of people are still getting (d)ucked  sparing a life on a rock.

So what's really important would be to divide the habitable land of earth so this would be 17,433.269 m² rounded to the nearest mm.

Now this number may seem large to some people but it is around 4.3 acres this of course doesn't factor in the easement space that would be required for things like roads, utilities. Just to keep the math easier you would be responsible for maintaining the public access parts of your property.

Along with any public infrastructure like pipelines, rail lines etc. Of course no one is going to be happy having to maintain a giant freeway going through their property so well assume governments continue to maintain public roads.
There are over 64mil km of public roads worldwide with an average width of 8m for a total area of 518,153,864,000 m² we divide that by the population which has inevitably grown since we last looked at it but we'll ignore that for now. To get 65.877 m².

Of course under this method all protected lands are gone all public lands except roads are gone.
Much of these protected lands are forestland required for the ongoing survival of earth.
These take up about 15% of all earths land so really that land is important for survival it wouldn't be distributed. So we need to take another 29,383,161,780,883.056 m² out of the equation.
Which removes another 3735.7 m² from each person leaving them with a total of 13,631.692 m² or about 3.35 acres per person.

Sounds interesting isn't it?
How much Land will be destroyed every year by wrong farming systems like monoculture and careless water management? (that's where the draught is created in the Midwest and Deserts are growing)

Another article says:
With the actual farming systems are not more than 50 harvests left..


Conclusion:
I have no conclusion but I can raise my hat to every permie here who has wisely bought Land (so did I) and works with the Land and Nature.
With 5 acres I know I will not be getting rich, I will be superrich when in a near future the first people realize that a fried bank note or a bank book cooked in gravy doesn't taste at all and the oil and cooling water in your hypermodern farming machines ain't good for frying and watering plants which would taste good.......

What's your opinion?
 

Personally, I don't believe in the doomsday scenario.

When I peruse the many and various doomsday predictions out there, I get the distinct feeling that somebody is trying to manipulate me emotionally in order to sell me something. Nope, not buying, move on.

I do wholeheartedly agree that having access to and gaining the skills to care for a bit of fertile soil is both wise and grounding (literally). People who are utterly reliant on ethereal supply chains are helpless, and easily made afraid, and easy prey for people who sell fear and easy solutions. My 2c.

I did all this math before... I think I shared it in a cider press post, but I forget the name of the thread.

Other things to consider:

-70% of people currently live in cities and that number is expected to rise.

-Vertical farms are an option but I think they are kinda bs.

-Some permaculture farms claim they feed 100 people all their annual veggies off of one acre.

-U.S consumption rates are higher than the rest of the world.

-I think that Government numbers for land required to feed x people are based on what they subsidize (corn, soy, livestock, etc.) which are inefficient long-term food sources. (no verticality, require inputs, etc.) most corn/soy are used for fuel or feed anyway.

-If cities starve they will just turn into raiders and take or extort your land/farm.

-Historically overpopulation just leads to declining birth rates until people can afford food again rather than increasing into starvation.

Really it is way too complex of a thing to model and there will likely never be a time when earth's landmass is actually ever equally distributed. I guess that's why folks would rather try to go to mars than try to sustain themselves here.

Personally, I think any problem there might be with global food security will resolve itself one way or another. Ideally, everyone should be as independent of others as possible. I guess the best folks can do is position themselves to be the replacement for industrial ag and make the best of what they got.

Douglas Alpenstock wrote:Personally, I don't believe in the doomsday scenario.

When I peruse the many and various doomsday predictions out there, I get the distinct feeling that somebody is trying to manipulate me emotionally in order to sell me something. Nope, not buying, move on.

I do wholeheartedly agree that having access to and gaining the skills to care for a bit of fertile soil is both wise and grounding (literally). People who are utterly reliant on ethereal supply chains are helpless, and easily made afraid, and easy prey for people who sell fear and easy solutions. My 2c.

Nothing to sale in my post at all and also I am not intending to spread panic.
I only find it an interesting fact which includes that I personally pay twice for the same dinner plate full of grub than 10 years ago, but somehow my day rates have been increased only minimally.  

The "Doomsday panic" was not overtaking but feeding me for many years in the Wind Power business, but I was not the one creating this panic.
I saw here only an opportunity to sell my gathered mechanically skills but also from my childhood as farmer and Grandson of a Fisherman (weather predictions etc...) to the highest price to reach my dream.

Beside this above presented calculation of a person I not even know myself, I also made a calculation based on facts you can google.
My outcome was 2860 square meter per person is left.
I find neither 2860 square meter nor 13.632 square meter is a huge plot.

But it gives me peace of mind that I stumbled onto 27.000 square meter fertile and affordable land which I will soon call "my world" after I retire.
And in this little world I will personally keep the doomsday outside until higher forces by any meaning will tell me to face the Ferryman...

There is nothing for sale what I can eat myself or at least can be re-use to feed my animals and plants.
Overproduction might be sold and certainly if there is somebody starving and incapable to work anymore for a bite, I will hand out a plate of the same food I can feed myself out of "my little world".

See Hes wrote:But it gives me peace of mind that I stumbled onto 27.000 square meter fertile and affordable land which I will soon call "my world" after I retire.
And in this little world I will personally keep the doomsday outside until higher forces by any meaning will tell me to face the Ferryman...

There is nothing for sale what I can eat myself or at least can be re-use to feed my animals and plants.
Overproduction might be sold and certainly if there is somebody starving and incapable to work anymore for a bite, I will hand out a plate of the same food I can feed myself out of "my little world".

I salute you. I sincerely believe you have chosen a wise path.

Please accept my apologies -- my comments on doomsday scenarios were intended to speak to the wide world, not to criticize you personally.

Hi See,
These are some interesting numbers, but I think there is a bit more to it. One big piece is that, while you are not including the oceans/lakes/rivers for living space... they are all producing food while not taking away any space from living for people. A lot of food actually.

Next, how people use the land is important. While an acre of corn would produce more calories than 1 acre growing a cow... A cow grown on an acre of land would produce enough meat to have more than a pound of meat per day for the entire year. Not to mention it would be less work and more nutrient dense than eating the approximately 44,000 ears of corn that you get from an acre.

Next, based on your math, each person gets a little over 4 acres of land. Before you take out for roads and whatnot, but again, the water that you discount can provide much transportation, so the need for roads could be a lot less. Also keep in mind that many of these people who get 4 acres are children. Who do not need to eat as much. A family of 6 would have over 25 acres. That is more than enough to feed a family of 6.

Sometimes things can be looked at from a different perspective. Texas has approximately 7.5 trillion square feet. I dropped this to 7.49 trillion to be extra careful about the "approximately" part. Divide that by the 7,865,502,590 population you talked about... and each person has about 952sqft to live in (again, keep in mind how many of the people are kids). A family of 6 would have 5712sqft. This leaves the entire rest of the world to grow food in. Looking at it that way makes it seem like there is much more room.

Lastly, I believe there is a God who created everything and maintains this world and everything in it. And He has promised this world will continue until He gets back. While I believe He wants us to take care of things the best way that we can, I also believe that He takes care of things that we cannot.