Advances in AI, super computers, robots (cars and humanoids)

First of all I don't know if any of this will resonate with anyone, because I may have a somewhat unique vantage point, as well as a unique attitude, so I'll ask to have this considered as a possible outcome for all these very "non sustainable" ventures, and how they might fit into Permaculture--eventually.

Some of you may have noticed Tesla and Elon Musk and likely there's even an X community of Permaculture people. And an idea is coming to me as I am watching articles on His new super computer with XAI.

Now I understand that Bill would have us abandon the "car crate" and just dwell on the land, and that idea is very appealing, so I understand the idea of transitioning to electrical transport may seem like an unnecessary detour  simply encouraging people to believe the idea that speedy personal transport in and out of misc eco systems/localities  is a good thing.

Advances in misc technical apparatus/tools will ultimately be of no use to us and we will simply wander around like innocent children harvesting our food, in perfect harmony with the earth.

Now I like that idea, and 10 years into my practice of Permaculture it is more of a religion with three simple ethics than any other spiritual concepts I have ever tested.

This is a pretty lengthy buildup to present the idea that all of these tremendous advances seemingly moving toward the Jetsons rather than the garden of Eden may actually be a major advance on the road to a truly sustainable future.

Cars are almost driving themselves already, adapting to detours, misc pedestrians, and all the other stupid human tricks people can throw at them. The new Grok AI will be increasing it's  intelligence by leaps and bounds. Musk predicts it will encompass all Human knowledge and thought power around 2028--that's right, even your ideas about food forests, dams, etc etc may be included in that knowledge.

Thousands of robots will be walking around doing factory jobs by 2027 (some are already doing productive work in Musk's factory). How long will it be before people really don't have to work at all. Even the dream of installing small dams through the entire length of the Mississippi River to totally slow, spread and soak the worst possible floods could be made feasible if the robots can be taught to understand what is really necessary.

Plant and care for very well thought out food forests and natural forests changing weather patterns lessening the need for wasteful resource consumption with out dated harvesting techniques--drones that daily scan forests and pick only the ripe fruit. Smaller diverse orchards and fields precisely managed by tireless workers(robots) while we paint and sculpt or meditate, and make love.

It is easy to say humans can do all these jobs and robots will just confuse the issue, let us just do our Permaculture in peace.  The question I would ask is do you really see humans doing all these things in the next several years?

I mean we are already seeing wonderful exchanges of ideas here on Permies, and much of that is possible by use of AI (primitive as it may be at times). Imagine asking a question and having it answered immediately in a precise and thoughtful way. Even just having a search engine that could understand complex Permaculture concepts and direct us to the posts that deal with the topic. (I haven't used the search engine here recently, too many memories of futile attempts to communicate with the robots here) Whether  we think these advances are good or bad they are coming and most of us are still deeply entwined with them (whether we know it or not)

It is somewhat difficult to imagine, but try, a world where everything is available for free and money becomes obsolete.

I'm not suggesting we should sit back on our laurels, waiting for the future, just that these developments are here, and we may have little say about whether they will happen, just suggest that nothing is forbidden in Permaculture and it's more a question of how we use these new tools.

All that is left is giving proper information to our robot overlords, so they have an idea of what is possible (and necessary) for us to continue living a sustainable existence here on this beautiful blue marble.  :-)

Cars aren't as close to driving themselves as many people think.  Until a blind person can sit in the front seat and the car takes them where they want to go we don't have self-driving cars.  Of course, me being that person who can't see, my husband wishes those cars would hurry the fuck up and get made in real life haha.

Lets talk about permaculture rather than AI.

I like that Google uses AI now and could care less about robotic cars.

How is your garden after 10 years?

Geoff Lawton remembers a time when working in remote places required traveling distances to get to a phone or fax and how the new technologies have advanced Permaculture with instantaneous access to information and communication.

Bill talked about sending  a couple hippie chicks ahead of their crews using an a frame leveling device each morning, and following them with machines to establish contour plowing on a very broad scale, and now machines can practically do all that work of several people and many extra days just by navigating with geo satellites and automatic leveling.

Keeping up to date with AI and how it is being trained is very much going to be part of our future whether we like it or not. The question is only are we going to be aware and literate regarding these powerful new technologies, or simply pretend they don't exist and try and will them away while hoeing our gardens.

I'll only answer the Full Self Driving  question  with an observation. Tesla started this quest many years ago with thousands of " labelers " millions of miles worth of video and countless advances and setbacks Recently (in the last year or so  they got their first super computer up and running with a neural net and the video data from those million(billion) miles of tesla fleet data and without labellers or specific instructions that Artificial Intelligence started driving more like a human in a matter of months not years.. The more miles added and the more advanced the super computers become the better they drive the cars.

With Players like Musk heavily investing in expanding that "Compute" power, doubling it every 6 months or so the "intelligence" there will have safer driving vehicles than humans in the next year or so. After that the question only becomes how much safer does it have to become before NHTSA  allows it to drive, then insurance and regulations are the main issue.

We can attempt to isolate our Permaculture and not participate in these advances, but I am at least observing these things while I play in my gardens.

I do use machinery--primarily my backhoe, and have set up several swales and ponds that become better each year. I've probably planted close to a thousand trees along those swales to try and diversify the forests here with Persimmons, plums, willows, red buds, ...

The gully that used to run like a river after a heavy rain and dry out after a few days, now holds back almost all the water that falls above the swales and I even have some catfish that have managed to survives even during extended droughts. My figs finally really produced well last summer after many years of struggling, my blueberries produced well again this year and each year I put in a few new plants. The grape vines are doing quite well, but my trellises could use some help and the vines will likely get pruned this year in an attempt to get them trained on better trellises.

My koi ponds are a  joy( if not quite related to Permaculture),  And their biofilters are a great experiment in using nothing but small pumps running  on batteries and solar cells. I'm currently using the biofilters mostly for rushes, reeds, ornamentals, but experiments with herbs and tomatoes etc are ongoing.

I am playing with soil supplements to try and increase production--rock phosphate, lime, fish wastes, in other parts of some gardens, also playing with over wintering several tender varieties-- tomatoes, tumeric, ginger, cayennes, lemon grass, etc etc.

I finally decided some nectarines, a peach tree, gooseberries, blackberries, and a couple others had outlived their use, or needed relocation from a garden close to the door, and plan on another biofilter there that will hopefully be more productive with more useful and easier crops. The trees could be beautiful, but late frosts have denied me fruit, every year, and this year the peaches that survived for the first time in seven years actually all brown rotted.

They were mostly experimental anyway, still I have hesitated to reclaim the space and sun until recently. I've already taken out a japanese plum and yucca plant, and as soon as I get the backhoe back up and running I'll be taking out the other two+ yuccas, the nectarines and gooseberries. I probably won't dig up the Peach right away, although I probably should, it has already been heavily cut off, and I may still play with it keeping it to more of a minor experiment than the overwhelming sun hog it became.

Oh, and my own recent experiments with new tech has been buying some Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries to replace the lead acid banks as they  age out. The batteries are actually getting cheaper than lead, and the hope is they will be more durable with less maintenance.  And for those who haven't been keeping up with the lithium tech, yes , these batteries are just as recyclable as lead, with numerous centers already set up, and one of the biggest drawbacks is they are not failing as quickly as people thought, so there is a shortage of batteries to recycle.

I know there's other stuff I could talk about--clear cutting the pulp wood pines on the other side of the creek and using the proceeds to totally swale the area and plant a more diversified forest instead of the monocrop that was there when I started.

So much fun to have the hardest part is knowing where to start.

Remember, if you're not having fun, you've got the design wrong.

I feel like it's time to update the tech that is already here, and the uses that remain quite obvious for the brave new world that is quickly approaching.Or will it be more like the star trek vision where people move freely between high tech and more earthy living, with money basically obsolete and a hardware system  that is always in surplus,basically free of waste and destruction.

So Waymo- driverless Taxis are well established in a few cities, tesla has been operating human monitored driverless cabs in Austin for employees and will open the service to the public  in June, with the idea that all teslas will have the driverless option (public and private) by 2027 give or take.  There is a bill in congress that will modernize regulations to standardize safety requirements through all 50 states for the new tech.

Tesla will start full production of electric semi trucks next year in Nevada, in a dedicated factory with a completion date by the end of this year.

Tesla has started several factories around the world producing mega batteries that replace Peaker plants basically offering a stabilizing power effect without the need for coal or natural gas to power the grid when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. This was pioneered in Australia several years ago and was so effective it is being replicated across Australia and the rest of the world. Tesla has two factories in China, one temporary factory in California and another dedicated factory close to completion in California.

The humanoid robot "optimus" is becoming more adept at different tasks (snowboarding :-)) and Tesla will be producing several thousand this year. There are already 30 or 40 being tested at jobs in their factories and robot assembly lines are hiring workers as the assembly process becomes refined. When completed this robot will not need "cloud" access for it's intelligence but uses a powerful onboard computer to allow faster response times.

After several months my  lifepo (lithium) batteries are remarkable, using fewer bats they outperform the lead acid ones 2-1.  The biggest challenge with this chemistry is cold, and the bats can be damaged when attempting to charge them below32* F They can still be discharged down to 5* or so without damage,  and some come with internal heaters provided although these are more expensive.  Recent price reductions make them cheaper than lead acid, although with new tariffs that may change since most of them come from China.  The only challenge left is lifespan, and they are predicted to last ten years under moderate use, possibly 20 years in a solar system where total draining is less frequent.

Lead Acid bats get destroyed much more easily when draining them so i anticipate lithium will be better in this respect also. I purchased unknown cheap chinese brands and cross my fingers and knock on wood they will at least last a few years.

I used a propane refrigerator for many years requiring monthly trips to town for propane, but over the last couple years since I started the electric fridge, no trips to town for gas, steady reliable-free- more cold space, and the new lead acid bats were the weakest part of the system. during the winter the fridge power system (4 solar panels and 6 100ah bats)  would need to be turned off when bats got low, since changing out the lead acid for lifepo never a shortage (only used 4 life po 100ah, biggest problem is now with increased sun, I need a controller to reduce high voltage. automatic cut offs- are built in-the bats have controllers for this, but having a secondary controller is safer.

I'm Planning on getting an electric golf cart soon, and will likely be replacing those bats with lifepo also. I'll also be setting up a larger solar system with used panels, and the golf cart will become a large mobile power supply.

after so many years struggling with minimal power suddenly my cup runneth over,

remember, if you're not having fun, you've got the design wrong.

bob day wrote:I feel like it's time to update the tech that is already here, and the uses that remain quite obvious for the brave new world that is quickly approaching.Or will it be more like the star trek vision where people move freely between high tech and more earthy living, with money basically obsolete and a hardware system  that is always in surplus,basically free of waste and destruction.

So Waymo- driverless Taxis are well established in a few cities, tesla has been operating human monitored driverless cabs in Austin for employees and will open the service to the public  in June, with the idea that all teslas will have the driverless option (public and private) by 2027 give or take.  There is a bill in congress that will modernize regulations to standardize safety requirements through all 50 states for the new tech.

Tesla will start full production of electric semi trucks next year in Nevada, in a dedicated factory with a completion date by the end of this year.

Tesla has started several factories around the world producing mega batteries that replace Peaker plants basically offering a stabilizing power effect without the need for coal or natural gas to power the grid when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. This was pioneered in Australia several years ago and was so effective it is being replicated across Australia and the rest of the world. Tesla has two factories in China, one temporary factory in California and another dedicated factory close to completion in California.

The humanoid robot "optimus" is becoming more adept at different tasks (snowboarding :-)) and Tesla will be producing several thousand this year. There are already 30 or 40 being tested at jobs in their factories and robot assembly lines are hiring workers as the assembly process becomes refined. When completed this robot will not need "cloud" access for it's intelligence but uses a powerful onboard computer to allow faster response times.

After several months my  lifepo (lithium) batteries are remarkable, using fewer bats they outperform the lead acid ones 2-1.  The biggest challenge with this chemistry is cold, and the bats can be damaged when attempting to charge them below32* F They can still be discharged down to 5* or so without damage,  and some come with internal heaters provided although these are more expensive.  Recent price reductions make them cheaper than lead acid, although with new tariffs that may change since most of them come from China.  The only challenge left is lifespan, and they are predicted to last ten years under moderate use, possibly 20 years in a solar system where total draining is less frequent.

Lead Acid bats get destroyed much more easily when draining them so i anticipate lithium will be better in this respect also. I purchased unknown cheap chinese brands and cross my fingers and knock on wood they will at least last a few years.

I used a propane refrigerator for many years requiring monthly trips to town for propane, but over the last couple years since I started the electric fridge, no trips to town for gas, steady reliable-free- more cold space, and the new lead acid bats were the weakest part of the system. during the winter the fridge power system (4 solar panels and 6 100ah bats)  would need to be turned off when bats got low, since changing out the lead acid for lifepo never a shortage (only used 4 life po 100ah, biggest problem is now with increased sun, I need a controller to reduce high voltage. automatic cut offs- are built in-the bats have controllers for this, but having a secondary controller is safer.

I'm Planning on getting an electric golf cart soon, and will likely be replacing those bats with lifepo also. I'll also be setting up a larger solar system with used panels, and the golf cart will become a large mobile power supply.

after so many years struggling with minimal power suddenly my cup runneth over,

remember, if you're not having fun, you've got the design wrong.

Tech can be used for either good or bad...     I believe we could use it for good.

Imagine robots using motors with blades destroying weeds, and planting crops in companion form...

The new world is coming at break neck speed....     Machines are making machines,   change is coming faster.

I imagine with the tarriffs,  the new factories built in the USA will be robot driven, not human driven....

It is a new world...

To quote Darwin ->

"It Is Not the Strongest of the Species that Survives But the Most Adaptable"

Being able to adapt to the change may be key to survival,   programming the robots to do permaculture  may be the way to survive.

When I contemplate this proposed AI paradise, my first question is: where will the energy come from? AI is insanely ravenous for energy.

Conversions of any natural form of energy into electrical energy are complex. The necessary supply chains are enormously messy, starting with mining and continuing up the manufacturing chain.

Will this really be more efficient than a thoughtful human putting a sharp shovel in the ground?

Thing is, humans can actually function without any electrical energy at all. It is a massive convenience, certainly, and enhances our abilities. But we can directly convert biomass from the biosphere into muscle power. And teach others to do the same, sharing what we learn, spreading that knowledge exponentially.The biosphere carries on as always, and we have already learned how to tap into its energy conversions

AI needs us. Not the other way around. My 2c.

I never intended my post to be an endorsement,  more an acknowledgement of what is. Solar arrays, wind turbines, all require massive disruption of more natural processes, our disruption has been in place for 10 thousand years, or more if you count putting sticks into termite mounds to eat the bugs. or starting fires to regenerate grasslands. Just to make a post here we acknowledge  our personal use of the existence of complicated disruptions beyond sticking a shovel in the ground, which is already a result of huge technology advances beyond just discovering bog iron.

Luddites didn't actually despise technology, they just wanted their level of tech and despised things beyond that. As a species we may be heading quickly to our own demise, would it be on a smoldering planet, or in a nursing home with robots catering to the last surviving humans?  Pure conjecture at this point.

I am a child of these times, although some might call me a relic of a past time, and I really make my choice every day to eat out of a refrigerator with occasional nibbles on wild plants, using store bought teeth

I would likely be dead without technology and I'm not going to apologize for enjoying my life, but i will plant another blueberry bush here and there to try and recreate a garden of eden where the only work is harvesting.

For the time being I use everything at my disposal to move toward that goal. plus, sometimes i use tech just for fun--yes, i'm guilty of having fun

This post was simply to let people know what technology is doing and what they might expect to become available to them in the near future.

Sure, Bob, that's fair comment. Apologies if my post seemed directed at you personally; that was not my intent.

sure, no sweat, it was really the apple award that alerted me to a possible misunderstanding and reaction in the general readership, like people taking sides, one Permaculture understanding better than another.

Bill really designed the propagation of Permaculture like an organism that could grow, mutate, and like all mutations, some survive and others don't.  That's why there was never supposed to be a single defining board of directors and just a simple three ethics to be understood by individuals in the way they understood it, not according to detailed instructions written in stone specifying straight jacket do's and don'ts.

AI is dangerous, I can vouch for that. I laughed so hard I coughed up blood while researching for the AI gibberish thread.

Although to be more serious, I am doubtful AI will ever have the essential, felt and understood connection of a living being to their ecosystem. Our own bodies are extraordinary instruments that can understand the ecology in a way that modern society has mostly suppressed, devalued and misunderstood. Something far deeper than the outer casings and appearances of words. I’m sure AI is able to have some kind of instinct, the wordless form of intelligence, but never the depth of connection to the ecology that a human being has. And considering where society is going, it likely will never have any connection to the ecology that is meaningful beyond what it can read in scientific studies, which is just the very surface of the whole earth.

I think you are totally right about all forms of connection or depth of feeling that an organic being can have, not just to the earth/ecology but also to other human beings, which is scary enough. but extrapolate to the point where the robot has so much data from feeling humans that it so closely mimics us  we can't tell the difference. and talk about scary.

Even something like Reiki or healing arts -shiatsu, all forms of massage may  be up for grabs once the programmers skill digitizes subtler forms of touch and collects enough data. This may be off in the future a ways, but mainstream science already has robots picking up eggs (without breaking them) touch receptors working both ways, robots reading x rays and diagnosing disease better than the best specialists.

Of course AI is driven by data and I have considered the idea that feeling/caring humans need to input equal or greater data than the uncaring ones to prevent creating warped mechanical children who learn their manners from people who have basically removed themselves from that eco connection. It would be a real shame if robot intelligence was based mostly on dysfunctional humans--

When I was a kid , 70 years ago +or -   I had a toy - Robbie the robot, it talked--"I Am Robbie the robot , a mechanical man, drive me and steer me wherever you can"  It was about a foot or so tall and had some sort of wire and controller and rolled along the ground. tomorrows personal robots are going to be less obvious.


Have you hugged your robot today?

Maieshe Ljin wrote: And considering where society is going, it [AI] likely will never have any connection to the ecology that is meaningful beyond what it can read in scientific studies, which is just the very surface of the whole earth.

I do worry that too many of our fellow human beings are not much better, living in their artificial bubbles.