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Educating myself on the reality of collapse...and college  RSS feed

 
Monica Rocha
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Hey y'all,
I've been interested in permaculture since I realized how unstable our survival grids are.
So I come to permaculture from an angle of preparation, and fear, admittedly, not because I find myself exceptionally interested in permaculture.
This is not to say that there isn't value in communing and negotiating with nature's bounty. That's the beauty of the thing.

I'm looking to move to australia and begin prepping, then once I have this stability, go to college for social change from there. But I find myself unsure and uneducated on the real potential and reality of collapse.

Bottom line: where can I educate myself about collapse, from a reasonable point of view? documentaries, pdfs are welcome
 
John Elliott
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Australia....really? Have you thought this through looking at what the heat and drought is doing there?

One of the short slogans of the climate modelers is: "dry places are going to get dryer and wet places are going to get wetter". Australia is already quite dry and they are going to have their hands full trying to adapt to less rain. A lot of their wheat growing land may have to convert to sorghum or millet to be able to make a crop.

When I had the choice of where to settle, I opted for a wet place, although I have spent most of my life living in dry places. Even still, the increased variability of rainfall, months of "below average" followed by weeks of non-stop rain is giving me a lot of difficulty in adapting.

Probably the most pessimistic view of collapse comes from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQuv8fETfME]Guy[/youtube] McPherson, who thinks humans are going to go extinct this century. Gwynne Dyer looks at it from the geopolitical point of view, and it ends up being "Grim 'n' Dire". Other names to search on YouTube are James Hansen, Richard Alley, Michael Mann, and Jennifer Francis for the science of Climate Change. The big picture is included in the scenarios covered by the 1972 work "Limits to Growth", and Dennis Meadows is still giving talks and updates on it 40 years later. Once you've acquainted yourself with the YouTube content on the subject, you should be able to Google yourself to the printed material.
 
Cj Sloane
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Start listening to Jack Spriko at The Survival Podcast. He covers survival from many angles including permaculture, much to the chagrin of some of his audience.
 
Monica Rocha
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John Elliott wrote:Australia....really? Have you thought this through looking at what the heat and drought is doing there?

One of the short slogans of the climate modelers is: "dry places are going to get dryer and wet places are going to get wetter". Australia is already quite dry and they are going to have their hands full trying to adapt to less rain. A lot of their wheat growing land may have to convert to sorghum or millet to be able to make a crop.

When I had the choice of where to settle, I opted for a wet place, although I have spent most of my life living in dry places. Even still, the increased variability of rainfall, months of "below average" followed by weeks of non-stop rain is giving me a lot of difficulty in adapting.

Probably the most pessimistic view of collapse comes from Guy McPherson, who thinks humans are going to go extinct this century. Gwynne Dyer looks at it from the geopolitical point of view, and it ends up being "Grim 'n' Dire". Other names to search on YouTube are James Hansen, Richard Alley, Michael Mann, and Jennifer Francis for the science of Climate Change. The big picture is included in the scenarios covered by the 1972 work "Limits to Growth", and Dennis Meadows is still giving talks and updates on it 40 years later. Once you've acquainted yourself with the YouTube content on the subject, you should be able to Google yourself to the printed material.


No, I have not thought about that to be honest. I figured australia because of the concentration of permaculture projects there, and I assumed they are more sophisticated out of how long they've been established...yes, an assumption. Perhaps its best to take a step back and see what is really best.
I think about moving back to the states (Im currently in Brazil), and the Northwest comes to mind. I keep running into ideas of war breaking out with the collapse, especially between the US and China, and I'm also looking for resources, POV's on that.
Some extra info: here there is a very very small mountain town where my aunt and uncle lives that is rather difficult to access. I've wondered about prepping there as well, though I do not have much money, and it is MUCH more difficult to save up money here than in the states. Brazil is a very unsafe country generally speaking, but when the collapse does happen, I wonder if the small, isolated towns will really have it that much better than the cities.

Thank you for all the information John! I'm definitely getting on this.
 
Adam Klaus
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Monica Rocha wrote:...when the collapse does happen...


Monica, I really wouldnt worry it so much. Lots of folks, like Jim Jones, have been waiting for the collapse. The world isnt perfect, but there is a lot of joy and wonder to be experienced right now.

I would follow your heart, find your path, enjoy this life while it's living. There are a lot of charlatans and false prophets out there profiting off of our natural instinct for fear. There is a better way. Dont do permaculture because it will shelter you from bad times; do permaculture because it enables you to live a more full and delightful life of prosperity.

A lot of people were sure the world was coming to an end, in the 60's, the 70's, the 80's, etc, etc, etc. Bummer of a worldview for them, they missed out on a lot of good living, convinced the world was about to end. You are young, your life is precious, your time is finite. Live and love, cherish the day that you have. Do what feels right to your soul, and let the world unfold as you go....
 
Mike Cantrell
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Monica Rocha wrote:
Some extra info: here there is a very very small mountain town where my aunt and uncle lives that is rather difficult to access. I've wondered about prepping there as well, though I do not have much money, and it is MUCH more difficult to save up money here than in the states. Brazil is a very unsafe country generally speaking, but when the collapse does happen, I wonder if the small, isolated towns will really have it that much better than the cities.


Have you come across FerFAL yet? He has a blog and a book about his experience in Argentina in 2001 and following.

He's just one guy, but it's hard to get a lot of first hand information in English about real-world, twentyfirst-century economic collapse... and he says no. Pretty adamantly, he says when really, really hard times come, folks are better off when they live close to hospitals, jobs, and police stations. And that means cities. (He also has some really fascinating insights that you'd never expect, like one industry that did fantastic in Argentina after '01? Plastic surgeons. Who'd have ever guessed that, right?)

He's here: http://ferfal.blogspot.com
 
Landon Sunrich
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My suggestion would be first and for most a brush up on Geography. Its one of the few things that is not subject to many variables and abrupt changes.

Here's a satalite map of the world with drought conditions overlayed.

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/climate/world-maps/world-drought-risk.html

One can access and extrapolate a lot of good information from a map.





 
Landon Sunrich
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Re: War with china - just one mans opinion here but I think a serious US/China military encounter is extremely unlikely. Look at a map and think about the (non state/ real / physical) forces at play.
 
John Elliott
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While I like what Adam has to say, and while I hate to be a downer, I have to bring everyone back to Earth (Gaia, if you will), and point out that we have been living on borrowed time. The fact that the world didn't fall apart in the 60s and 70s and 80s has a lot to do with the Green Revolution and the fact that nowadays industrial agriculture counts on 200 bu/acre corn whereas up until about 1935, the yields were a constant 25 bu/acre. The same with wheat. India was on the brink of famine when Norman Borlaug went over and pulled their ass out of the fire with better yielding strains of wheat.

The Green Revolution has delayed paying the piper for a couple of generations, that's all. Monica, if you're really interested in where wars are going to break out, look at where they are breaking out now because of resource scarcity -- Syria, the Congo, Pakistan (and the tribal conflicts in Afghanistan), not to mention the conflicts known as the Arab Spring back in 2011. The good news is that we've dodged a bullet in 2013 -- it was a record year for corn and wheat and the world food stocks have inched up a bit. The bad news is that we need another record crop in 2014 to put enough food in the bank to lower conflict even more. However, the last big El Nino year was 1998, and we are due for another one. The next El Nino is going to be a severe test on the world's food system.
 
Cj Sloane
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John Elliott wrote:While I like what Adam has to say, and while I hate to be a downer, I have to bring everyone back to Earth (Gaia, if you will), and point out that we have been living on borrowed time. The fact that the world didn't fall apart in the 60s and 70s and 80s ...


It's a logical fallacy to say that since the world didn't fall apart in the past few decades it won't ever fall apart.

Also, the 20th century saw so many societies fall apart I'd have a hard time listing them all.
 
Adam Klaus
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Cj Verde wrote:
John Elliott wrote:While I like what Adam has to say, and while I hate to be a downer, I have to bring everyone back to Earth (Gaia, if you will), and point out that we have been living on borrowed time. The fact that the world didn't fall apart in the 60s and 70s and 80s ...


It's a logical fallacy to say that since the world didn't fall apart in the past few decades it won't ever fall apart.


Logic isnt real, its an invention of the Western, masculine, human mind.

I'm not living on logic, I am living on life!

The fearful always find ways to rationalize their fear, and then try to convince others to join them. This is a spiritual tragedy.

You're alive! Cherish that! Follow your dreams, enjoy the ride.
 
Monica Rocha
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ferFal looks very interesting, it'll be a good read. Thanks Mike!

To Landon: I'll get back to you on the potential of war.

to Adam, yes, I agree, and it is good to keep this in mind. There is no reward to living in fear. Learning to live with it seems more important. However, whatever path I choose, for it to be meaningful, it makes sense that it is responsible as well. This is sort of a no-brainer, but it all depends on the extreme to which personal explorations are harmful or helpful to the earth. Should I concede a life-long dream of traveling because of the huge carbon footprint that flying all over the world brings? Does it really make a difference that I stick to my principles? It makes much more sense to limit travel to car and bus in my view...

And what is a carbon footprint, if its for a good cause (educating others and myself about permaculture)?

And if corn and oil suddenly disappear, you'll find me in the northwest researching alternative energy and growing my own vegetables before I'm in a hostel in southeast asia. Whether or not there is a real potential of collapse, it seems important to have a base at this point to actually implement permaculture. I'm just not sure where that will be yet.

Sorry if this is all a bit personal mapping. Hope its relevant to the larger discussion of the dilemmas of living permaculturally and following one's heart.
 
Monica Rocha
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Cj Verde wrote:
John Elliott wrote:While I like what Adam has to say, and while I hate to be a downer, I have to bring everyone back to Earth (Gaia, if you will), and point out that we have been living on borrowed time. The fact that the world didn't fall apart in the 60s and 70s and 80s ...


It's a logical fallacy to say that since the world didn't fall apart in the past few decades it won't ever fall apart.

Also, the 20th century saw so many societies fall apart I'd have a hard time listing them all.


I think is argument is exactly that, Verde. He is saying that just because it didn't happen before doesn't mean it won't happen now.

I wonder why the Pacific Northwest has such a threat of drought, keeping it in mind.
 
Monica Rocha
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Monica Rocha wrote:
Cj Verde wrote:
John Elliott wrote:While I like what Adam has to say, and while I hate to be a downer, I have to bring everyone back to Earth (Gaia, if you will), and point out that we have been living on borrowed time. The fact that the world didn't fall apart in the 60s and 70s and 80s ...


It's a logical fallacy to say that since the world didn't fall apart in the past few decades it won't ever fall apart.

Also, the 20th century saw so many societies fall apart I'd have a hard time listing them all.


I think is argument is exactly that, Verde. He is saying that just because it didn't happen before doesn't mean it won't happen now. Thanks for the podcast by the way.

I wonder why the Pacific Northwest has such a threat of drought, keeping it in mind.
 
Landon Sunrich
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Well this isn't a forum for discussing geo-politicing I know - but I would be interested in hearing your view. In my view, since it was solicited, and admitting fully that I am a hobbyist and dabbler even more especially as it relates to China and East Asia. Some of my primary thoughts however would be

1) The armed forces of the respective countries : China has an immense standing army and a unified purpose. They do not have much of a Navy. Now the US navy is aging and the Chinese are investing in one - but the logistics of transporting an invasion force across the pacific are mind boggling especially in the days of submarines, satalites, fire and forget rocketry , et cetera et cetera. And can you imagine a hostile foriegn army on American soil? Virtually every citizen in this country is statistically more heavily armed than Steven Segal. Walmarts would be passing out guns. The Interstate system turned America into a fortress of unprecedented proportion especially as viewed from the west coast with a mind towards topography. On the flip side, china has an immense army - who's going to invade their territory and why? It seems to me that a Chinese navy is far more likely to assert itself in the south china sea and the Indian ocean.

2) Geography and resource distribution : China is sitting as a modern 'middle kingdom' as a hub between South East Asia (the Asian Union) The Indian subcontinent and central Asia. Where is the oil? Indonesia is and obvious one. Kazakhstan and the Caspian basin are another. Does this oil go east or west? Why not both? Oil from the middle east only needs to make it though the straights of Hormuz and the straights of Malacca to gain entry into the eastern markets - The path it need to take to get to the US take it though many more key choke points in a far more unstable region. It seems to me China's interests would be to keep good relations with key middle eastern players (such as Iran) the US (who though blatant imperialism secure the oil resources of the regions) and to try to gain military hegemony in the south China sea.

3) Economics, Trade balance, and Climate change : The US and china are the two Largest emitters of greenhouse gasses in the world and the US military is the largest single user of fossil fuel in the world. China is still industrializing and needs to continue in order to achieve modern living standards for the whole of its population (this applies broadly for all of south asia). Rather than an actually physical war it seems far more likely that China acting in convert with the international community with hold the balance of trade/debt over the head of the US to demand emission concessions that we as a people really should have began voluntarily by now (as is appropriate for our view of ourselves as global leaders). Lets not forget that in a vary real way China and south east asia now effectively control the means of production of a majority of the goods purchased in North America. China and the international community are now positioned in a place where they would be very capable of completely annihilating the petro dollar - this is how our currency maintains its status as the reserve currency. Currently anyone wanting to but oil must do so in USD. So china (and the international community) pressure the US "Reduce your emissions by 60 percent by 2020. We Balk - there is some negotiating and everyone comes to the table. The US ends up agreeing (with little real choice in the matter other than a war it can't afford to fight) to a dramatic emission cut provided china, india an asia commit to a 10 percent cut in the same time frame and a 40 to 50 percent cut by 2050. I think something along those lines is more probable than an all out war.

Regarding My neck of the woods the PNW and drought and again these are just my totally unprofessional takes on issues I do not fully comprehend; The North west is a Mediterranean climate. Traditionally it is totally forested with keeps much more water in local circulation (via transpiration evaporation, the cooling effect of shade on the ground. Particularly along the I-5 corridor all of this wonderful moisture maintaining efficiency has been replaced blacktop asphalt. The result is two fold. 1) it acts as a heat sink. 2) it Sheds 100 percent of precipitation.

I have noticed this about my home. While yes, we are getting some longer hotter dryer spells and some pretty nasty deluge type rains, we've always (to my memory) had those. Now however - and I've seen an amazing difference just in 15 years as home after home takes over what used to be forest and brush scrub - that water has nothing to cushion its fall or to be absorbed into. The result is pretty clear. Here we are having more and more and more sever landslides. In areas like Tacoma the water hits and sits and there are sudden massively dangerous conditions on the streets - hydro planing everywhere. Thing seem to be just getting more and more extreme - slowly - but not so slowly as to not be of great impact and notice. The net effect does seem to be a decline in participation - perhaps as a result of climatic zones migrating north.

 
Landon Sunrich
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Also, as for resources for education (and my I add a hearty [b]FUCK THE COLLEGE DEBT MACHINE[/b]) there really really is so much good information on youtube.

Here's some of my favorites for a informed semi 'behind the scenes' prospective - These are some of the big minds and movers and shakers. I disagree with them as/more often than not but they are true experts in their fields and quite influence to those currently making the decisions. Whenever I'm bored I pick a couple that sound interesting and give um a whirl.

The Carnegie Council on Ethics in International Affairs
http://www.youtube.com/user/carnegiecouncil?feature=watch

The Council on Foreign Relations
http://www.youtube.com/user/cfr?feature=watch

Many Universities also put up their lectures for the public. Cornell Horticulture has in my experience been the best one for soil science for all those into the Permie thing

http://www.youtube.com/user/CornellHorticulture

a Cornell Transition Ed lecture series on soil science

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9jBc19Ylvc&list=PLs7Y2nGwfz4HPoRAaB64c-MdF1kK-P-Wy
 
John Elliott
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Landon Sunrich wrote:Also, as for resources for education (and my I add a hearty [b]FUCK THE COLLEGE DEBT MACHINE[/b]) there really really is so much good information on youtube.



Landon, I have to give you my hearty agreement, even though I am of the age where there was no college debt machine. You should really take these links and start a separate topic on the subject of self-education. In posts where I try to convey factual information, I always try to provide links to further reading. It's pretty easy for me, because as a research scientist, it was my job to be able to quickly dig up information (and some pretty obscure information at that). Self-education is really the only way it gets done, there's no way to pour knowledge into the ear or absorb it from a book under your pillow.

I'm all for having more educational resources on here, let's see what we can do to make it happen.
 
Nick Merrill
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Monica, et al.:

If you haven't already, please check out The Archdruid Report at http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/?m=1 (or just google "archdruid report").

When I first discovered this weekly blog by John Michael Greer, I was researching organic gardening in the context of broader investigation into collapse and peak oil. The same line of thinking led me to Permies. You are already in this mode, so I will skip the warning that this path becomes a way of life.

I've learned a lot from these resources, and others including nwediblelife.com to name one helpful gardening site based in the PNW. I live in Portland, OR and I'm doing hugelkulture and (slowly) implementing permaculture principles on one-third of an acre. Thankfully, no HOA! The Archdruid Report is the best resource I know of on why and how our civilization will continue its ongoing decline. Note that Greer is no doomsayer; in fact he did a lengthy series debunking apocalyptic shysters, past and present.

Adam is certainly right to a point, and I'm so glad he posted his thoughts on the subject. But it's ok to balance living and loving life with a healthy dose of reality on a regular basis. Greer has all of his old posts still up on his blog. Go back a few years and sample whatever catches your eye, and work your way up to present. Other than your well-spent time, it's a free part of your (self)education.

When you do make it to the PNW, be sure to look me up for a beer or coffee or what have you. I should have some Opal Creek Snap Peas and other garden treats on hand in a few months. Best regards!!
 
Angelika Maier
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Moving to Australia because you fear collapse is not a good idea. If you like that rugged country with torrential rainfalls bushfires and bad droughts yes. And employment you find mainly in the capital cities were you won't have much land to play permaculture. Follow permaculture because you are afraid of collapse is not a good idea, you must follow your heart. If you are not a gardener by heart you will never be one. Why college? That is just another silly idea (sorry for being that harsh). If you really think things fall apart (and if you don't think things fall apart) learn a decent trade, like cobbler, bicycle mechanic, fine mechanics, potter, carpenter, boiler maker, gardener, blacksmith...
Learn how to meditate and you will see things a bit more clearly.
 
Cj Sloane
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Angelika Maier wrote: Follow permaculture because you are afraid of collapse is not a good idea...


I disagree. Permaculture was created as a direct reaction to fear of collapse
Permaculture Designers Manual, chapter 1 wrote: The sad reality is that we are in danger of perishing from our own stupidity and lack of personal responsibility to life.


What has drawn so many people to permaculture is a fear of collapse. Permaculture is based on positivism though so through action you can mitigate various collapse issues. I gave a link (above) to the Survivial Podcast and I'd live to give another one, geoff lawton's series of videos: Surviving the coming crises.
 
George Meljon
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The nice thing about permaculture is that it is an answer to all kinds of questions. If you're worried about collapse, it has answers to many of those questions. If you're worried about healthy food, it has answers to all that. If you're worried about designing a proper farm, it has answers to all that, etc.

I'd say the 'reality of collapse' is that it isn't a reality right now. I think prepping can lead to a lot of work that can sometimes beg for a justification in the news, looking for signs, etc. Tracking events is one thing, but ultimately I believe ones happiness will come from what they did that they loved, not what they did out of fear. So it is good to prepare, but don't conflate everything into an impending disaster. I think that could lead to a lot of hardship without bearing fruit. At least self reliance in itself is fun and rewarding, though. Maybe that's the end of any random prepper project, it's just fun to tinker and adjust.

I think permaculture is way more than a safe haven from catastrophe (although I am tickled by it's resilience in even the worst situations), it is an answer to hundreds, maybe thousands of questions in determining what is the right thing to do.
 
Landon Sunrich
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Political Science can be really frustrating. There is just so much room for interpretation of data and subjective experiential bias. The professionals always have a dog in the fight in any case so information synthesis and extraction is largely a matter of the gut. And unless I decide to start a "history according to Landon" thread I don't think I'll be posting to many periodical publication links. Many articles can be very informative even when you come to differing conclusions than the author. Sorry if I got a little to enthusiastic on the college thing - I decided to quite college at the point rather than go into debt having had just watched my parents and grandparents careful saving utterly devoured in record time.

John, I actually am a firm believer that knowledge in its nature largely osmotic. but its largely as whimsical argument. I will try in the future to better site sources but really it would just degrade into my take on history and how the forces (now largely natural IMO) play into them with an emphasis towards a permaculture prospective (I suppose that should properly be my interperitation of...).

Sorry if the original intent of the post was lost Monica
 
Angelika Maier
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Permaculture is mostly about farming in one or the other form, but it scratches some other things too. And choosing farming as a lifestyle because one is afraid of collapse is not a good thing. There might be collapse anytime from now but who knows? The important thing is that you choose a lifestyle that suits you.
To know if you like farming you could always go WOOFING then you learn as well a lot of skills.
 
Monica Rocha
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My internet has been down for the past few days, sorry about the delay

Angelika, I find value in gardening, and have been gardening since the 4th grade. You are not being harsh, but I´d like to know why you think college is silly in the first place, as its a claim thats difficult for me to accept at face value. If you care to explain why or send a few links in the form of a purple mooseage, we can trade some ideas rather than some commands. Meditation is great, it´s the reason I´m living in a buddhist community at the moment I think it doesn´t address all aspects of mental health, nor can touted as a panacea for a lack of "good" temperance towards life. Living in the moment and out of love, not fear, is a 24/7 practice, and meditation surely helps if you approach it as non-technically as possible.

Landon, it seems like you have a very thorough treatment of the matter. And the subjectivity and fluidity of a political reality can drive one insane, or just trying to predict the future in general. I completely understand the enthusiasm to be free from state-sponsored financial holes. And the original intent is not lost, better, its transformed into an invitation for you to give some cogency to a difficult topic, among other things.

George, I like your take on permaculture as an answer to many questions. I imagine that self-reliance is fun and rewarding in itself, and I hope to experience this soon. There is also peace in not looking for answers, but understanding the wisdom behind the questions asked.

CJ, thank you for the videos!

Merrin, this is something I´ve been looking into. Thank you, and I´ll take you up on the invitation!

I´m in the middle of a move, but I´ll be taking a closer look at the sources and post thoughts soon.
I imagine there must already be a thread on this, but opinions on permaculture courses in college? Thinking of Eugene, OR in particular


 
Brett Andrzejewski
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Monica,

Search "Peak Moment" on Youtube: Janaia and partner produce great videos.
Search Dimitri Orlov on the internet or Youtube: he experienced the collapse of the Soviet Union
Search "Hirsch Report" for how peak oil will effect economics, politics, and society (headed by Dr. Robert Hirsch)
View the entire "Crash Course" by Dr. Chris Martenson on Youtube (3.5 hours long in 20 some videos)
Dr. Richard Heinberg has written some good books on peak oil, resource depletion, and social consequences
The IPCC climate change report is about 10 to 20 years behind where it should be

The Transition Handbook is also a good resource.

As for college I would recommend attending only if you dont need to take any loans. The laws regarding student loans are very aggressive now. Even bankruptcy, light disability, illness, etc. cannot remove them in the United States. College tuition rates are in a state of an "economic bubble" where the tuition rates are exceeding the inflation and wage rates. When the bubble pops it is going to be hard for both students and universities to recover.

[edit] In my opinion we have been in a state of "collapse" since 2006. Collapse isn't everything falling apart tomorrow and nothing works, it is more like "these roads are terrible... so many potholes and the city is raising taxes again! This is unbearable! Where is my money going?"
 
Josh Wells
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Australia isn't dry every where. I would highly recommend checking out Tasmania. It's very green and absolutely beautiful. I've been all over the world and Tasmania is one of the nicest places I've ever been. The nice thing about Australia is it isn't overpopulated like most parts of the world.
 
Josh Wells
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Adam Klaus wrote:
Monica Rocha wrote:...when the collapse does happen...


Monica, I really wouldnt worry it so much. Lots of folks, like Jim Jones, have been waiting for the collapse. The world isnt perfect, but there is a lot of joy and wonder to be experienced right now.

I would follow your heart, find your path, enjoy this life while it's living. There are a lot of charlatans and false prophets out there profiting off of our natural instinct for fear. There is a better way. Dont do permaculture because it will shelter you from bad times; do permaculture because it enables you to live a more full and delightful life of prosperity.

A lot of people were sure the world was coming to an end, in the 60's, the 70's, the 80's, etc, etc, etc. Bummer of a worldview for them, they missed out on a lot of good living, convinced the world was about to end. You are young, your life is precious, your time is finite. Live and love, cherish the day that you have. Do what feels right to your soul, and let the world unfold as you go....


This is solid advice. There are a lot of doomsday predictions floating around out there that if paid too much attention can have you living in constant fear. It helps to look at the present in the context of the broad sweep of history. Bad times come and go and it's extremely unlikely you'll see what could truly be considered the worst of times. Imagine living in Rome when it was sacked by barbarians. Or in Europe when the black plague wiped out a third of the population. I'm sure for those people it seemed like the end of the world had come. But the sun kept coming up each day and life went on.
 
Landon Sunrich
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josh wells wrote: Imagine living in Rome when it was sacked by barbarians. Or in Europe when the black plague wiped out a third of the population


or Bangladesh when the West Antarctic ice sheet begins to collapse...
 
Mark Chadwick
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Monica, I also suggest tasmania. Google Mathew Evans or Fat Pig Farm, he's in the Huon Valley near the capital city Hobart. He's a foodie chef type but it may give you an idea of the area.
We've got a living treasure named Peter Cundall down there too. He is an organic guru that's worth googling too.
In Victoria where I live the Otway region and Gippsland are exceptional. We've got a couple of Salatin type farms in central Victoria that are progressing towards drought proof, and Darren Doherty from the Regrarians is there as well.
The mid north coast of New South Wales, that's Geoff Law tons base.
 
Josh Wells
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Landon Sunrich wrote:
josh wells wrote: Imagine living in Rome when it was sacked by barbarians. Or in Europe when the black plague wiped out a third of the population


or Bangladesh when the West Antarctic ice sheet begins to collapse...


Not something I lose sleep over but the point is hard times come and go. In the context of world and human history that is the norm, not the exception. If there is a "collapse" in our lifetime it's unlikely to be as bad as the prophets of doom predict.
 
Chris Badgett
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Check out The Five Stages of Collapse: Survivors' Toolkit: http://www.amazon.com/Five-Stages-Collapse-Survivors-Toolkit/dp/0865717362/



This book and Dmitry's work has a lot of perspective on collapse drawing on Russian history.
 
Brett Andrzejewski
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Josh Wells wrote:
Not something I lose sleep over but the point is hard times come and go. In the context of world and human history that is the norm, not the exception. If there is a "collapse" in our lifetime it's unlikely to be as bad as the prophets of doom predict.


What I loose sleep over are the scientific climate change papers.

I haven't been able to find this scientific article:
"Only complete economic collapse will save us from run away climate change."

This one written by Dr. Jim Hanson formerly of NASA:
Hanson Paper

"The Earth was 10–12°C warmer than today in the Early Eocene and at the peak of the PETM (figure 4). How did mammals survive that warmth? Some mammals have higher internal temperatures than humans and there is evidence of evolution of surface-area-to-mass ratio to aid heat dissipation, for example transient dwarfing of mammals [136] and even soil fauna [137] during the PETM warming. However, human-made warming will occur in a few centuries, as opposed to several millennia in the PETM, thus providing little opportunity for evolutionary dwarfism to alleviate impacts of global warming. We conclude that the large climate change from burning all fossil fuels would threaten the biological health and survival of humanity, making policies that rely substantially on adaptation inadequate."

I've come to the same conclusion: If we burn all the fossil fuels (~ 1200 ppm CO2) humans will not be able to thermoregulate (loose heat to the environment, sweat to stay cool) their body temperature. Humanity will all die of heat exhaustion.

OR

This video where Dr. Guy McPherson discusses another scientific paper where if we change the climate too fast we can actually push the Earth out of the habitable zone completely. Thus, killing all life on the planet. I don't know if Dr. Jim Hanson took into account that hundreds of millions of years ago the sun was not as bright as it is today.


Now that is what I loose sleep over
 
Josh Wells
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Brett Andrzejewski wrote:
Josh Wells wrote:
Not something I lose sleep over but the point is hard times come and go. In the context of world and human history that is the norm, not the exception. If there is a "collapse" in our lifetime it's unlikely to be as bad as the prophets of doom predict.


What I loose sleep over are the scientific climate change papers.

I haven't been able to find this scientific article:
"Only complete economic collapse will save us from run away climate change."

This one written by Dr. Jim Hanson formerly of NASA:
Hanson Paper

"The Earth was 10–12°C warmer than today in the Early Eocene and at the peak of the PETM (figure 4). How did mammals survive that warmth? Some mammals have higher internal temperatures than humans and there is evidence of evolution of surface-area-to-mass ratio to aid heat dissipation, for example transient dwarfing of mammals [136] and even soil fauna [137] during the PETM warming. However, human-made warming will occur in a few centuries, as opposed to several millennia in the PETM, thus providing little opportunity for evolutionary dwarfism to alleviate impacts of global warming. We conclude that the large climate change from burning all fossil fuels would threaten the biological health and survival of humanity, making policies that rely substantially on adaptation inadequate."

I've come to the same conclusion: If we burn all the fossil fuels (~ 1200 ppm CO2) humans will not be able to thermoregulate (loose heat to the environment, sweat to stay cool) their body temperature. Humanity will all die of heat exhaustion.

OR

This video where Dr. Guy McPherson discusses another scientific paper where if we change the climate too fast we can actually push the Earth out of the habitable zone completely. Thus, killing all life on the planet. I don't know if Dr. Jim Hanson took into account that hundreds of millions of years ago the sun was not as bright as it is today.


Now that is what I loose sleep over


When do you expect the earth to warm by 10–12°C?
 
Brett Andrzejewski
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If we continue 'business as usual' in about 30 to 40 years. Once the climate buffers have exceeded their buffering capacity the change comes very fast.

The rapid change comes from the positive feed backs. I believe scientists have identified currently (2014) 16 independent positive feed backs, please see the following climate change papers and articles for some:

'At 4 C plants can no longer remove CO2 from the atmosphere'
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/12/131216154851.htm

Warmer oceans release CO2 back into atmosphere:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20413-warmer-oceans-release-co2-faster-than-thought.html#.U3JApHZLpTU
In this article they say that the ocean can release most of the Gigatons of CO2 is has been storing over a period of 200 years (+/- 200 years error)

Drought in the Amazon is now releasing CO2 not sequestering it.
http://cires.colorado.edu/news/press/2014/amazoniandrought.html

Burning of peat moss in Indonesia is the worlds largest single source of CO2:
http://archive.redstate.com/blogs/vladimir/2007/apr/24/for_peats_sake_worlds_largest_carbon_footprint_revealed
1st episode of "Years of Living Dangerously" on Youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brvhCnYvxQQ

Methane clathrate (methane hydrates) are probably what are going to change the climate the fastest.
The warmer shallow and deep oceans, melting permafrost, continental shelves, will start to release the methane hydrates:
http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/methane-hydrates-and-contemporary-climate-change-24314790

Only a small fraction of methane clathrate need to be released to abruptly change climate:
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/327/5970/1246.short

Methane starts off 60 times more powerful than CO2 as a climate change gas. Clathrate releases are irreversible once they start. There are currently around 10,000 Gigatons of methane hydrates on the planet. It is estimated that even a 1 gigaton release methane hydrate will increase global temperatures by 3 to 4 Fahrenheit. The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis is believed to have caused the Paleocene-Eocene and Permian-Triassic extinction where 96% of life on the planet died.






Also you can keep up on the latest for climate change reports, papers, blogs, and scientific commentary on Weather Underground from the climatologists:
http://www.wunderground.com/climate/



 
Josh Wells
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If you go back 40 years to the first earth day there were some pretty dire predictions being made back then too.

http://www.westernjournalism.com/apocalyptic-predictions-first-earth-day/

I imagine a lot of folks gave themselves ulcers worrying over all those predictions that failed to come true. But somehow this time is always different.
 
Landon Sunrich
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Brett Andrzejewski wrote:

I haven't been able to find this scientific article:
"Only complete economic collapse will save us from run away climate change."



I am in total agreement with that statement. The modern system of finance the perpetual growth economy are the fundamental problem in my opinion. If the system tanks we can finally start to figure the important stuff out and give it priority instead of just continuing some profits for a sector that has driven itself over the cliff on multiple occasions and should rightly no longer exist.
 
Landon Sunrich
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Brett wrote: I haven't been able to find this scientific article:
"Only complete economic collapse will save us from run away climate change."


I thought this joint study by NASA and SESYNC out this march came pretty close to saying that

http://www.sesync.org/sites/default/files/resources/motesharrei-rivas-kalnay.pdf

News Article from the Guardian summing it up (though pretty much everyone covered this a few months back)

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists

"A new study partly-sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution. "
 
John Elliott
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Landon Sunrich wrote:

I thought this joint study by NASA and SESYNC out this march came pretty close to saying that

http://www.sesync.org/sites/default/files/resources/motesharrei-rivas-kalnay.pdf


An excellent find, Landon. I believe section 6.1 is playing itself out as we watch.
 
Nathaniel Steinrueck
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Go to Canada! There are great places to explore and survive in remote areas. As the earth warms as well it will be a good location.

Take a new approach permaculture is exciting and rewarding.

NPS @ http://returntotheforest.org/
 
Brett Andrzejewski
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Nice paper,

It is similar to the study done way back in the 1970's described in the book "The Limits to Growth" and the follow up "The Limits to Growth: The 30-year Update".

If you consider the models used in the paper you mentioned with food and predator to my observations we are going to have some tough times in the future. When I worked for the USDA I was already seeing a lot reports of 50% decreased crop yields, complete crop failures, and an unprecedented number of farmers declaring bankruptcy. My project with sugarcane/sweet sorghum was seeing similar decreased yields of 50% from Louisiana to Tennessee.
 
He's dead Jim. Grab his tricorder. I'll get his wallet and this tiny ad:
2017 Rocket Mass Heater Workshop Jamboree - 15 workshops in one event
https://permies.com/wiki/63312/permaculture-projects/Rocket-Mass-Heater-Workshop-Jamboree
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