What degree of certainty

I used to teach some classes in administration.  One of the more difficult concepts I had to get across were the various issues connected with risk.   Of course, often the answers are vague or even nonexistent when confronting risk, but that does not mean they should not be examined.

For the sake of this thread, I wonder what degree of certainty that we feel we need that we will be successful before we launch an endeavor?   Yes, we like to be 100% certain.  But, in a situation where there is competition, if I wait until I am 100% certain and my competitors launch at 75% certainty…then I am shut out of the game.  In fact, 100% certainty may never come.

At what point do you decide to roll the dice?

I'm doing it right now.

But I'm doing along side my day job for a while. I've been itching for a change for a while, and I'm taking steps to pivot in a new direction. I have no certainty at all, just hopes that something different may work out. My ultimate goal would be to earn enough from the sideline to reduce my hours... or cut them altogether.

What makes it easier is I can start exploring without taking big risks, by working alongside my day job.

Don't you have to factor in potential reward as well? The bigger potential reward, the less certainty that is needed.

For example, would you jump out of an airplane with a parachute that only had a 50/50 chance of opening? In most situations, people would not since the only potential reward is a fun ride down to the ground. In contrast, if the plane was on fire and the fuel tanks were about to explode, then most people would find the 50/50 risk with the parachute acceptable since the reward is avoiding a fiery death.

John Wolfram wrote:Don't you have to factor in potential reward as well? The bigger potential reward, the less certainty that is needed.

For example, would you jump out of an airplane with a parachute that only had a 50/50 chance of opening? In most situations, people would not since the only potential reward is a fun ride down to the ground. In contrast, if the plane was on fire and the fuel tanks were about to explode, then most people would find the 50/50 risk with the parachute acceptable since the reward is avoiding a fiery death.

Exactly.  Potential reward is the biggest factor I use when deciding acceptable risk.

1% is enough.
But I don't seem to be normal in that I don't go all out with the first attempt.

I try in small portions.  I make a small experiment that takes very little investment of time or money.  Then I observe the results, make changes, try a slightly larger experiment.  And so on until I get the desired results.

So when I wanted to move out of the city to a farm where I could grow my own food, I didn't buy a farm.

I started cooking with fresh ingredients.  That worked, so I started growing some of these ingredients in pots on the windowsill.  That worked a bit but I learned that I don't do well with potted plants, so I started helping at a family member's garden.  That worked, I got an allotment... and by this time I found I was saving $50-100 a week on my food budget (aka, cut it in half) and other things came together and when we moved to the farm I had the skills already in place to succeed at growing my own food from scratch.  I still made mistakes, but there were far fewer and less devastating than most of my friends who went from concrete jungle to farm without gathering the skills and experiments first.  

I don't like a lot of risk for the same reason I don't do debt.  The costs are too high so I gather skills so I can jump in when the opportunity presents itself.  

So I guess it's not really risk I worry about, it's skills.  If I have low skills then I mitigate the risk by starting as small as possible.  

Interesting!   I think I look more at the potential loss than the potential gain.   I care more about the experience than the "success" but I have to consider if the loss is worth the experiment.   What do I have to lose is probably my most relevant question.  

I guess I could relate this to a recent dish I cooked that was a fail.

What degree of certainty?

I would say that I was 100% sure that the dish would work out as it was only ground beef and potatoes.

That dish resulted in this thread:

https://permies.com/t/204818/kitchen/Difference-Scalloped-Au-Gratin-Potatoes

I didn't have a recipe for the first attempt only a picture with no instructions.

Since that attempt failed I tried to turn the failed attempt into something else. Again without a recipe.

Taking what I saw in a picture, removing the ground beef patties and adding a cream gravy which I was 100% sure would because something tasty.

Again a fail.

At least both times I took the risk.

Potential reward is a really big part of it.

The opportunity I'm exploring is the same one that has been infront of me for ages... the difference now is that the financial incentives make sense. Where previously I would have replaced my job with more hours and less job security, I could end up with substantially fewer hours, more pay than currently... albeit with less job security.

This missing piece has slotted in to place, so that a previously unviable option now looks viable.

Heather Staas wrote,

I care more about the experience than the "success" but I have to consider if the loss is worth the experiment.   What do I have to lose is probably my most relevant question.  

In my world today, the loss is time spent maintaining yesterday's experiments. That time commitment takes away from new experiences.
Now, as I consider taking on a new construction project, I factor in the risk (or cost) of future commitment to maintaining that creation. While I love building and making things, I wilt at the prospect of more upkeep. Cooking is a low risk activity because the outcome of the process is eaten (or composted). I don’t have to dust it, polish it, clean it, or fix it when it breaks down and feel bad when it becomes worn out. Something like a building or a business can become a ravenous monster that requires care, feeding and long hours of day-to-day administration.
I thoroughly enjoy the process of creating yet I am wary of the risk of imprisoning my “future self” with more maintenance and less freedom to have new experiences. These days, I consider the exit strategy: could this new project someday be repurposed, or weather and decompose naturally?