Predicting an increase in electric cars

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/


This is the best news I've read in a while.

Electric cars as they are now are not for every climate or situation. One night trying to get home in a bad snow storm in the foothills of the Colorado rockies I burned the gas that would have gotten me 250 miles in 35 miles and was able to stay warm and keep my windshield clear with the waste heat from the motor rather than using power from the batteries to stay warm and power the car. With any of the electric cars made today I would have been stranded with dead batteries on a road no one else would use until the next day. It's possible electric cars and there batteries will improve enough to handle a situation like that but there is a reason the first ones where sold only in warm areas.

That's an interesting point, Fred.  I think you've hit the nail on the head.  In the past, electric cars couldn't manage a situation like the one you describe.  What the article is saying is that the technology is improving at an incredible rate and it won't be long before it can offer a better solution in than a petroleum based fuel.  I know it's necessary to keep warm, yet I shudder to think of all that fuel spent on it.  I remember a time when a friend was stuck in the Rockies during a white out.  There were several cars stranded where they closed the highway.  There was a bus there too.  Instead of each person staying in their own car wasting fuel, they all piled into that bus.  That way they managed to keep warm together and save fuel.

But I'm getting distracted.  I see this article as saying that electric car technology is improving much faster than most people can imagine and in 10 years or less, they will probably be more affordable and practical (even in unexpected situations) than petroleum based vehicles.  

My family has two electric cars and we love them!!  We have a 100% electric e-Golf, which has a range up towards 100 miles, but realistically will have a range more like 68 miles in severe cold weather.  Our other car is a Ford C-max, the plug in hybrid version, so it has an extra battery and can run on electricity only for about 20 something miles, then it switches over to acting like a hybrid.

If we are travelling long distance, we take Max, but for my daily commute EV (Evie) is perfect.  She is SO zippy, you have to be careful not to jack-rabbit out of red lights too much, you might get a ticket.  Since my work is less than 20 miles away, I don't worry about hoarding energy and will indulge in luxuries like heating the seat.  I consider crazy accelerations to also be a luxury.

I was able to drive EV from Portland Oregon to the coast on a single charge.  We were unable to get her to the top of Mount Hood, but that was because the charging station near Government Camp was out of order.  At least it was simple to get her back to Sandy (all downhill)!

It is interesting that this thread was created 6 years ago. Electric cars have not yet displaced petroleum cars. The controversy continues. Paul's most recent podcasts, podcast 643- Carbon Footprint part 3 centers around electric cars and other related issues. The questions asked and answered are worth pondering.

Electric cars absolutely are replacing gas burners. We're up to 7.2% ev in the US, 20+% in the UK, etc. I'm interested to hear what Paul has to say but I think the numbers are very clear. Google led me here:

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q2-2023-ev-sales/

"In June, the average price paid for an EV was down nearly 20% year over year. EV share of the U.S. market in Q2 was 7.2%, up from 5.7% a year ago"

Electric vehicle sells have been steadily increasing, yes. But they still don't have a price suitable for the working class.
In my country roads, it's easier to see a Tesla model Y (+100.000€) than a Reanult Zoe (+28000€). In other words, only high salary people are purchasing electric vehicles.
If I had to replace my car now, I could not afford an electric one. I cannot afford a new ICE (internal combustion engine) car. I don't even know if I can afford a second hand ICE car in good shape, since second hard market has stunningly high prices right now.

Match this one fact (electric car sells are increasing) with this other fact: all new car (*registrations) sells have reduced to half of what it was twenty years ago. In the years 2005-2007, car sells were around 1,6 million every year. 2008 crisis hit hard and sells reduced to 700 milliards in 2012, to be recoverd to 1,3 million in 2019. Then covid, and up until now, car sells are at 800 milliard per year.

Those who can, buy an electric car. Those who cannot, repair their old cars because that's what they can afford. Middle class is missing, so no one is buying the cheaper electric models.

Disclaimer: These are data from Spain. Your country may differ, depending on how heavily subsidized your electric cars are. Before you raise your hand and claim that you are a middle class person who purchased an economic full electric car, take a look at the statistics, you might be part of a very small minority.