Using the clouds to predict rain.

Years ago when I was in my twenty’s I use to take groups of fathers & sons on remote camping trips into northern Ontario.

One winter in preparation for future trips I went to the Michigan State Library and studied some of the old books in their collection.  

One book I found was written back in the 1940’s. This was of course before modern day weather forecasting as we know it. Back in the day people were more dependent on being able to read signs that were in the clouds.

In this book the author described one of the things he looks for to predict rain. He went on to tell if you see the sky full of “mairs tails” make a mental note of the time and 12 hours from then if the sky is filled with “mackerel lines” then you will know it’s going to rain 12 hours later. At the time I thought well that’s interesting.

That summer I had a group of campers and we were in our canoes fishing early in the morning around 6:00. I realized that the sky was literally filled with “mairs tails”. I remembered what I had read and I told my friend, that was helping me, what I had learned so we were on the lookout for “mackerel lines” at 6:00 pm.

Sure enough that evening the sky was full on these “mackerel lines”. I told my friend to just keep it to himself about what we had discussed.

That evening as everyone was crawling into their sleeping bags I announced that everyone would want to bring all their gear into their tents because it was going to start raining at 6:00 in the morning. Some laughed, most just ignored me.

Sure enough within a few minutes of 6:00 am the next morning the sky opened up and the campers were scrambling! This was a memorable moment. 😁

The younger campers were asking their fathers “how did he know that”. I laid in my tent with a huge smile on my face thinking “Wow they are going to hang on my every word now. In fact I may become a legend in the north woods”... Not!

I have used this several times to accurately predict rain over the years. The sky has to be full of them though, at the appropriate times.

Interesting.
I've always thought of mackerel skies as being a sign of a change in the weather, either from settled fine to rain or vice versa. We don't get the mares tails so often here -  that's a sign of wind at higher altitude I believe.

Where my mother's from (the border between Sweden and Finland), they say that mare's tails are a sign that the wind will pick up in the next 12 hours... I guess a lot of these weather signs depend on where you are.

Eino Kenttä wrote:Where my mother's from (the border between Sweden and Finland), they say that mare's tails are a sign that the wind will pick up in the next 12 hours... I guess a lot of these weather signs depend on where you are.

Yes they can depend on where you are, especially if you are in the mountains. I have seen the skies filled with mare's tails many times, when the mackerel line did not appear.  Of course they both need to happen at the right timing to make an accurate prediction. When the timing is right I have predicted within a few minutes several times. Thank you for sharing.

I've been reading The Secret World of Weather by Tristan Gooley.

It talks about exactly the sort of phenomenon Craig describes, but then adds the science behind the clouds you're seeing. We used to be taught the names of the clouds in Elementary School, but I don't recall any context, so to me it just seemed like linking pictures and words, only in real life, the pictures kept changing shape!

Tristan explains things like how clouds have "families" and the Cirrus Family is very high up (the pictures Craig posted) and that they are so high up, they are always ice crystals.

He has a section starting on pg 28 labeled: The Seven Golden Patterns. These are worth learning, but they are relative, and location is everything.  The author is based in the British Isles, but he's travelled extensively. Some of his patterns allow him to predict weather in very different ecosystems than Britain, but he's been doing this sort of thing for a long time.

I am trying to pay more attention to the clouds, and many of the general principles do relate to my ecosystem, but in my case, our weather gets jumbled up due to winds bouncing off mountain ranges and travelling over a mix of mountains, low lands, islands and oceans. My back field alone is its own ecosystem due to being a 200ft wide gap in a very tall coniferous forest. There is a section of the field we refer to as "the lower field" and I've known for years that it's a "cold trap" and will get and keep frost far longer than any other spot on our property. I will admit I seem to have a better sense of what temperature is *really* going to do, more than, "will it rain or not"!

In summary, this is a great book to read, contains lots of very useful info about weather, but it takes some hard work and practice to achieve mastery!

Craig - Love the idea of you being a Living Legend - you get my vote Excellent photographs.

I heard something about the Yup'ip people of the Bering Sea coast of Alaska being able to forecast the weather 2 years in advance. Essential for knowing how much food reserves to put by. They were looking at when the sea ice froze and thawed, the colour of the ice and its texture and strength, the texture of the velvet on the caribou antlers... I'm told it's in 'Carbon' by Paul Hawken

Jay Angler wrote:I've been reading The Secret World of Weather by Tristan Gooley.


In summary, this is a great book to read, contains lots of very useful info about weather, but it takes some hard work and practice to achieve mastery!

Jay, thank you for the author recommendation.  

Just a heads up for anyone interested over at Abebooks.com the author Jay references has several "natural observation" books for less than $10 US.  (2/17/26)  I plan to snag one.  It seems he published on everything from observice 'tree sign' to navigation to 'water sign'.  

Anthony Powell wrote:I heard something about the Yup'ip people of the Bering Sea coast of Alaska being able to forecast the weather 2 years in advance. Essential for knowing how much food reserves to put by. They were looking at when the sea ice froze and thawed, the colour of the ice and its texture and strength, the texture of the velvet on the caribou antlers... I'm told it's in 'Carbon' by Paul Hawken

Might be Yup'ik. The folklore - eg, careful what you say, the Environment has ears! But yes, they have techniques. https://eloka.nsidc.org/yupik/atlas/index.html?module=yupikatlas.module.OurChangingWorld
From a journal, with lots of links and references: Facets Journal

Local phenomena, north Florida...when a cold wind picks up on a hot day you're about 10 minutes until rain.

Concrete floors driveways, etc. will sweat water before it rains and dry out quickly when the rain has passed.

If they're not drying out, but it appears the rain is done, it's not.

My grandfather has lived in the same house for some 85 years. In the back is a HUGE field but way at the top, a tree. He has lived there so long that he noticed where the moon is in relation to the tree on winter solstice can determine how warm or cold the winter will be. He is not wrong. The moons distance from the earth determines tides, and tides determine winds and winds determine weather.

I am not so astute, but I have learned some things myself over the years. In a VERY broad form, if the skies look ominous, ominous weather is coming. Not might arrive, could arrive, should arrive but WILL arrive!

Rain before seven, stops before eleven. I have never seen this not to hold true, which also means rain at 4 AM, it is going to rain for most of the day.

If the wind is strong enough to flip the leaves over on hardwoods, it is going to rain within a half-hour. Part of it has to do with the strength of the wind, but also too the air pressure which is inverted and suddenly allows the leaves to flip over easier.

A mottled pink sunrise is absolutely beautiful, but watch out. A severe storm will arrive the next day.

Here in Maine, if ponds are dry in the fall, they will be filled in the spring, meaning heavy snowfall for the winter. If ponds are full in the fall, they will be about as full in the spring, meaning no snow melt run-off so a less severe winter. I have never seen this not to hold true.

My birthday is on May 8th. I have yet to see a year when tractors started plowing before my birthday. I have thought many years it was going to happen, but some major weather event has always sprung up and the tractors had to stay off the fields until after my birthday.

Like my birthday, here in Maine you can count on putting your livestock on pasture on the second week of April. It may seem that will never happen with too much snow or whatever, but high temps have always allowed the grass to grow enough to allow grazing to happen.

Despite the above, we always get one plowable snowstorm the first of April. The snow never lasts. Lands and is melted the next day, but we always get one last plowable snowstorm in April.