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Northern Lights alert

 
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I saw it last night, but I over slept and went out atv1:30 past the peak. There were faint red lights shifting overhead. I got the camera out and used long exposure and a band of red showed up from SE horizon all the way across the sky!

My kids took the newer laptop on vacation so right now I can only take crappy pictures off my old laptop  screen. Maybe some of you will recognize the constellations too.
20241011_110645.jpg
Northern lights and starry night 10/11/24
Northern lights and starry night 10/11/24
 
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Mike Haasl wrote:Any guesses about the likelihood of good lights tonight?



Christopher Weeks wrote:Seems like things are falling off fast, but I don't know how to read their stuff to know if we're in line for another thump.



At the moment the heavy SLAM of the CME impact is past, however the solar wind from it is still ongoing. Assuming no other big flares today (and with how many we have had, that's not a good assumption) the auroras will be confined to the farther north areas. BUT if we take more big flares, it will get rowdy again.

My analysis: Check the sky in case you are in range, if you are far enough north, they'll almost definitely be visible, and if we get more flares, they'll be visible farther south too.

And May Lotito: AUGH! I didn't go out that late! Last I looked was 11:00 or so, and I saw none.  :(
 
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Seen last night, all the way down in Louisiana!
IMG_8715.jpg
[Thumbnail for IMG_8715.jpg]
 
master gardener
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Pearl Sutton wrote:My analysis: Check the sky in case you are in range, if you are far enough north, they'll almost definitely be visible, and if we get more flares, they'll be visible farther south too.


And even if the aurora isn’t out, a comet might be!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2024/10/11/northern-lights-tonight-no-but-a-second-once-in-your-life-view-is-on/

 
Pearl Sutton
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I don't know what time that article came out, but we did take a mid M class flare about 11AM central time. It might amp the aurora up more.

Oooh, but the comet! Thank you! I knew it was there, didn't know we could see it!!
Look west 45 minutes after sunset!!
 
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The forecast keeps saying it will be clear, but every time I look out, I see clouds - very sad! We're "green" for Northern Lights but I'm not convinced the "clearing" prediction will happen early enough.
 
Pearl Sutton
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No comet visible tonight. I looked on the net and found one place that said starting Oct 12 it would be visible, so we will try again tomorrow.
 
Christopher Weeks
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Clear skies just after sunset with no aurora and I guess the comet was already over the horizon when we started searching for it. And it's cloudy now. I'm pretty sure I see pink to the far north through the haze, so if you live north of me and it isn't cloudy, you might be able to see something right now.
 
May Lotito
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I feel so lucky to see all three events this year: the solar eclipse, Northern lights and comet C/2023 A3! For people in SW Missouri, the comet will be in good visibility in the next several days. Today we have the sunset around 6:34 and I saw the comet the best from 7:24 to 7:34. It appeared higher in the sky than I thought it would be but the long tail was unmistakable!

Took pictures on 14/15/16, it's dimming so quickly! Wish I had looked at the sky at the right time on Sunday.
PA149578.JPG
Comet A3 on Oct 14th 7:34 pm
Comet A3 on Oct 14th 7:34 pm
PA159619.JPG
Comet A3 on Oct 15th 7:23 pm
Comet A3 on Oct 15th 7:23 pm
 
Pearl Sutton
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Watch the skies tonight!  
A couple of days ago we took a long duration X class flare that threw a CME. We will only get a little bit of the impact from that, it was not right in front of us on the sun. BUT  this morning we took another one, also long duration, it too is sending a CME to us (probably Monday) but it has also set the stage for this one to be possibly more active than it would have been without the second one.

Think of it like water, if you are looking for pretty ripply reflections on it, and start with still water, throwing a rock in will get you some pretty ripples. But if you throw a second rock in, it will affect the ripples the first one made, and make them more complex and interesting. So this CME impact, while not a serious one, is hitting an already agitated sky, and may be prettier than would be expected.

This chart comes from GOES X-ray flux NOAA website  don't forget it is in universal time, Greenwich Mean Time for us old geeks. The daylight savings time change will change your math for reading the time on that chart, today Central Time Zone (where I am) is -5 hours. I have to subtract 5 hours from whatever time it says. After it changes it will be -6, and I'll subtract 6 hours from it's time.  A website that may help you figure out your own numbers to add or subtract:  TimeBuddy World Clock / Converter
solar-impact-10262024.PNG
Solar X-ray flux chart Oct 24-26, 2024
Solar X-ray flux chart Oct 24-26, 2024
 
Pearl Sutton
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No warranty on this one, the aurora prediction chart doesn't show anything. BUT we have a solar proton storm hitting. That means the magnetosphere is already primed, even a small flare might set off pretty lights. Worth checking if it's easy for you. We haven't had any major flares lately...  Hard to say. Might have some, might not.
 
Pearl Sutton
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Possibility of northern lights in the northern areas Friday night/Saturday morning. 2 coronal mass ejections coming, how close the impacts are will decide how bright the lights are and their reach. Neither one is bad, but if they impact close together they may be bright.
 
Pearl Sutton
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Solar uptick is putting out lots of medium sized flares, it’s expected to keep up for a few days at least. If you are in the north, watch for lights!
 
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Isn't there an eclipse tonight too?
 
Pearl Sutton
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Only somewhat off topic: The sun is what makes the northern lights, depending on what it's doing. It does other things too, including affecting earthquakes.
We are checking our earthquake mitigation systems
If you are in earthquake territory and already are used to paying attention the effects of the sun, you might be interested in that thread.
:D
 
Christopher Weeks
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Not tonight, but tomorrow night! (I’m personally expecting to be in the middle of a snow storm then, but y’all should check!)
IMG_3652.jpeg
NOAA aurora prediction
NOAA aurora prediction
 
r ranson
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Heavy cloud last night.
Will try again tonight.
 
Jay Angler
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r ranson wrote:Heavy cloud last night.
Will try again tonight.


Only until there wasn't and the temperature dropped to freezing in a big hurry...
I predict 'unsettled weather' and if you don't like it, wait an hour!
 
r ranson
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I should have looked out later.  It was still spitting here when I was doing the chores.

Will look harder tonight.
 
Jay Angler
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r ranson wrote:I should have looked out later.  It was still spitting here when I was doing the chores.

Will look harder tonight.


Alas, they just changed the forecast here and are talking Atmospheric River... sigh... the odds don't sound good.
 
Pearl Sutton
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Did anyone get pictures last night?
Those of you with good cameras and good views, check the next few days! I would love pretty pictures :D
 
Jay Angler
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Pearl Sutton wrote: Those of you with good cameras and good views, check the next few days! I would love pretty pictures :D

Have you seen what Windy.com says is going to hit the already soggy Wet Coast? Wish I could help, but alas, the raindrops are going to win!
 
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r ranson wrote:Isn't there an eclipse tonight too?


We've got a partial solar eclipse tomorrow. It looks like my chances of actually seeing it are approximately zero though! heavy rain most of the morning....A better one next summer though - there should be a 90% eclipse of the sun in Scotland on 12th August 2026 (same as usual then.. )
 
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Last year I saw our eclipse through heavyish clouds.  They were just thin enough so that I could just see the outline of the sun through the clouds with the naked eye (safely) and see the shape.  So go take a look upward even if it's fairly cloudy!
 
Nancy Reading
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Yes, and the forecast may be inaccurate anyhow!
 
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The lights are on now in Sweden. Decently strong.
 
Pearl Sutton
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Tuesday night. No major impact but it probably will make the skies light up.

 
r ranson
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Oh, only partly cloudy the next two nights.  Will keep an eye out.  Thanks.
 
Pearl Sutton
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This is the solar wind chart as of just before noon on April 15, 2025.  Look at the far right side, all the lines jumped hard. Impact!



That's a really abrupt impact, that's the kind that makes pretty lights. Possibly down to the mid-latitudes. Watch your skies just in case!

And Europe, you might get an even better show as the impact is close to your sundown. Check the sky!
 
r ranson
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Forecast for here is medium-low chance of lights right above us.  And mostly clear skies for once.

In other news, is anyone noticing a mega lag on the internet today?  My connection (and permies) is fine, but several websites seem to be overloaded, especially wordpress based ones.  
 
Jay Angler
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r ranson wrote: In other news, is anyone noticing a mega lag on the internet today?  My connection (and permies) is fine, but several websites seem to be overloaded, especially wordpress based ones.  

Hubby and I were trying to use a website and had no end of trouble, and my version of Google Chrome was having serious issues of total weirdness. I've only just made it onto permies and I agree, things seem fine here (but then, we're the best...)
 
Pearl Sutton
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Late warning.... Go out and look RIGHT NOW!!!   :D
I'm not sure yet what hit, the coronal hole stream was predicted for Sat night/Sun morning. Sure looks like a coronal hole stream at the moment though.
Whatever it is, looks like it's lighting up the sky.
 
Pearl Sutton
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It WAS a coronal hole stream impact, not predicted by anyone, startled people.

An interesting point is I saw it because my pain/brain spiked the way it does when solar storms hit and I looked to see what was going on, as nothing was expected. I'm a good solar storm sensor :D Wonder if I can get a job doing this?
 
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Overcast, rain (out of season), and lots of joint pain all night.
 
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If you are in range, check again tonight. Solar wind is still amplifying, although the charts look clear right now, won't take much to make it spike again. And spiking makes lights!!
 
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High odds tonight!
Long duration high M class flare yesterday evening threw a fast moving CME right at the earth. Fast moving usually makes for more power on impact, and the power of the impact is what makes the sky pretty!
 
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Pearl Sutton wrote:High odds tonight!
Long duration high M class flare yesterday evening threw a fast moving CME right at the earth. Fast moving usually makes for more power on impact, and the power of the impact is what makes the sky pretty!



Think we'll see it down here?
 
Pearl Sutton
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Carla Burke wrote:

Pearl Sutton wrote:High odds tonight!
Long duration high M class flare yesterday evening threw a fast moving CME right at the earth. Fast moving usually makes for more power on impact, and the power of the impact is what makes the sky pretty!



Think we'll see it down here?


No easy way to predict how far south it will be visible. Too many factors involved.
 
Christopher Weeks
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This alert that just popped up on my phone agrees. :)
IMG_4043.jpeg
[Thumbnail for IMG_4043.jpeg]
 
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