a college degree in 2025/2026/2027 ... don't

Christopher Weeks wrote:

Inge Leonora-den Ouden wrote:AI doesn't have hands!

Yet.

Even if it does, there is no way it will be successful at hands-on things. My husband has been repairing & renovating homes for 40 years and EVERY job is different. Plumbing & electrical aren't always found in the expected places; older homes are a Frankenstein of repairs done over 80 years with different materials; studs aren't always 16" apart. Does Ai know what's on the other side of a wall? Does it know to find a roof leak by imagining "what if I was water, where would I run down to before actually dripping?" and see where there's a bump that throws it off the expected path? (and do that backwards, actually)
Can Ai climb a ladder and determine what kind of small animal is making that kind of hole and where it's living and how to catch it and repair the hole with the appropriate material that *that* animal can't chew through but not until the babies have left and nothing is living in there anymore? Can it make suggestions to a customer that enhance accessibility for their disabled teenage daughter to start doing things for herself and be helped with some things while having privacy and independence at the same time as well as redecorating for her in a culturally hip way because we see she wants to grow up and her parents are still treating her like a child, so we give sensitive suggestions that make them feel like they're the decision makers even though we're winking to the girl on the side and she's smiling and everyone is happier? No, it can't.
I'm just getting started!
Ai ain't human, and will never replace some things.

What I'm afraid of is the quality-bar being lowered. It seems many people believe Ai can equal or outperform humans in many areas. Customers sometimes look up their problems on YouTube or Google, and think they have the answers when they call us. They tell us what they need or want. Then my husband starts rattling off why that solution won't work for them, or is not the best idea. Some contractors or handymen would just do what they ask, possibly taking a lot of money for a sub-par job. Sometimes they think they "need a whole new" thing for $3000 and my husband says, "Well you can get one if you want but I can fix this one for $300." There are usually options, with pros and cons, and the answer might be different for different people. We almost never walk into a job and just do what the customer says. We can't help brainstorming with them and working as a team with them, and 99% of the time it is appreciated.

Ai will cause people to settle for "good enough" or mediocre, and without interaction with experienced humans, people will not get the best jobs done or get what is truly best for them.
That may happen, because people won't know that's what they're getting, but it will be a sad day.
That's what I mean by the quality bar being lowered.
Robots will seem to be helping but will cause us to live like robots because they are simply not human and can't interact like humans.

True that AI is going to lower standards in some ways. Although AI's relative mediocrity is at least better than a bad plumber or bad other expert, and definitely cheaper! Someone I know has been avoiding needing to call electricians, because the AI tells her how to fix things herself and asks the right questions in ways that are helpful.

It has been rolling around in my head that history is defined not by human effort but by human laziness. There are two ways to be lazy (at least). One goes along these lines generally speaking: to work in the office or the factory or wheresoever, all day long, doing little that is really, tangibly valuable and the work being of questionable consequences, and getting tired nonetheless, and then to come home, flop on the couch, snap at your children, and eat a microwaved TV dinner.

The other way is to be grateful for the gifts of nature, grateful for your ancestors and friends and family, and enjoy the gifts that come to you freely from the earth and from your relations, the best you can.

Both involve laziness and work. The first one involves a good work ethic, where you work hard then get tired and can't muster the energy for what is truly important in life. The second requires that one not be afraid of enjoyment. But because so many people are in a state of perpetual inner turmoil, feelings of insufficiency, and self judgement, they choose the former rather than the latter.

Kim Wills wrote:

Christopher Weeks wrote:

Inge Leonora-den Ouden wrote:AI doesn't have hands!

Yet.

Even if it does, there is no way it will be successful at hands-on things. My husband has been repairing & renovating homes for 40 years and EVERY job is different.

Kim, I agree 100%.
I am retired from being a contractor with decades of remodels, new construction and maintenance work.
I have 4 sons all having their own companies doing this. They each already have over 2 decades of experience, (and still call me a lot for ideas.  I think to just keep my mind sharp. lol)  Each of them will search the net and uses AI to a certain point just to be sure they are looking at all to options for the job.  I have  people asking me for advice from time to time also.  Many of them have already searched for answers on the net and then get really confused.  That is where hands on experience comes into play.

Dennis Barrow wrote:

Kim Wills wrote:

Christopher Weeks wrote:

Inge Leonora-den Ouden wrote:AI doesn't have hands!

Yet.

Even if it does, there is no way it will be successful at hands-on things. My husband has been repairing & renovating homes for 40 years and EVERY job is different.

Kim, I agree 100%.
I am retired from being a contractor with decades of remodels, new construction and maintenance work.
I have 4 sons all having their own companies doing this. They each already have over 2 decades of experience, (and still call me a lot for ideas.  I think to just keep my mind sharp. lol)  Each of them will search the net and uses AI to a certain point just to be sure they are looking at all to options for the job.  I have  people asking me for advice from time to time also.  Many of them have already searched for answers on the net and then get really confused.  That is where hands on experience comes into play.

Wow, that's great that your sons are following in your footsteps! My husband still calls the retired old-timers who taught him when he wonders about something. His mind was made for troubleshooting and puzzle-solving, but even still, when there are several options on something tricky he won't commit to a solution until he runs it by someone else (even me; I've been working with him 10+ years). And there we have another thing Ai can't do; toss ideas back & forth while *being there*. I've used ChatGPT for a few things and it always acts like it has the solution, or I do, but then when I add a bit more info it's like, "oh well, now that you mentioned that..." Hopefully your son's Ai experiences are better than mine, lol!

M Ljin wrote:True that AI is going to lower standards in some ways. Although AI's relative mediocrity is at least better than a bad plumber or bad other expert, and definitely cheaper! Someone I know has been avoiding needing to call electricians, because the AI tells her how to fix things herself and asks the right questions in ways that are helpful.

It has been rolling around in my head that history is defined not by human effort but by human laziness. There are two ways to be lazy (at least). One goes along these lines generally speaking: to work in the office or the factory or wheresoever, all day long, doing little that is really, tangibly valuable and the work being of questionable consequences, and getting tired nonetheless, and then to come home, flop on the couch, snap at your children, and eat a microwaved TV dinner.

The other way is to be grateful for the gifts of nature, grateful for your ancestors and friends and family, and enjoy the gifts that come to you freely from the earth and from your relations, the best you can.

Both involve laziness and work. The first one involves a good work ethic, where you work hard then get tired and can't muster the energy for what is truly important in life. The second requires that one not be afraid of enjoyment. But because so many people are in a state of perpetual inner turmoil, feelings of insufficiency, and self judgement, they choose the former rather than the latter.

I'm glad your friend is smart enough to do some work herself. At least she's the one actually doing it and taking the responsibility for it. I'm sure she knows her own house by now, but I gotta say, my husband and I have seen some crappy electrical work done on houses where things were wired backwards or downright dangerously; not as expected at all. I am cringing but I will tell myself your friend is very intelligent, careful, and is doing just fine!

As for your last point about the 2 types of lifestyles and not being afraid of enjoyment, and being in inner turmoil, with self-judgment & insufficiency.... wow, did you hit the nail on the head for me! That sentence is exactly what I have been discovering about myself lately. I have not been stuck in your first description because I never did fit into it, so I've been a wanderer as far as finances & jobs (always worked or was in school, but changing & searching a lot). I am now learning things about myself at midlife, and after some enormous challenges the past few years I need to shed the expectations I had for myself (feeling pressure from parents & society) and stop the guilt, and the "shoulds", and the "I don't deserve to relax until I've done X, Y, and Z". After a few deaths in the family my life is changing, which includes me finally owning my dad's "hunting cabin" which is a one room house on 50+ acres. Life is changing, and I am changing into exactly what you described in your second description. Really, your description is so perfect!

(Don't get me wrong; I've always been happy and joyful and I make myself crack up with laughter at myself, but at the same time there has always been a droning guilt and judgment in the background, telling me I'm not doing life "right")

I got curious and looked up the cost of a doctorate at a school in MN.  This is only for the doctorate and not any degrees or course work leading up to it.  It is also tuition only.  So, this is not cost of living, travel, fees, books, etc.  Anyway, to complete the doctorate a student would pay $100,000.00 in tuition. And no, this is not any special school with extra high tuition.

John F Dean wrote:I got curious and looked up the cost of a doctorate at a school in MN.  This is only for the doctorate and not any degrees or course work leading up to it.  It is also tuition only.  So, this is not cost of living, travel, fees, books, etc.  Anyway, to complete the doctorate a student would pay $100,000.00 in tuition. And no, this is not any special school with extra high tuition.

Questions:

1) What particular field of study was the doctorate in?
2) Usually, full-time doctoral students (at least in engineering) are on an assistantship, which pays their tuition.
3) Was this fee the out-of-state tuition or the in-state tuition cost?
4) Was this a public or private university?

The market is overflooded with PhDs looking for work in academia. It has been since the 1960s-1970s. So anyone paying that much to get a PhD, specifically to go into academia, is nuts.

The company I worked for paid my Ph.D. tuition, which I earned in 2012. I don't know the total cost to the company, but it was not nearly that much. I never intended to go into academia, though after retirement, I am now a part-time Adjunct Professor (engineering), which pays peanuts on the dollar (but I'm not doing it for the money).

Dan Robinson wrote:... though after retirement, I am now a part-time Adjunct Professor (engineering), which pays peanuts on the dollar (but I'm not doing it for the money).

I have heard that's part of the problem. We've got lots of retiring well seniors who are willing to work for peanuts in the jobs that used to go to Professor wannabees. The University saves money while getting real world experience.

Not sure if that will eventually bite society in the ass - it may just encourage a return to genuine on the job training (which has largely been passed to Community Colleges in Canada). It certainly works with professions that require practical skills like nursing and welding.

Hi Jay,

In Illinois, the Community College system as been a victim of mission creep.   I had the good fortune to have had a course in the early  1970s that was taught by the father of the Illinois Community College system. He originally laid out a number of precepts for their operation.  All of those I remember have been tossed aside by the majority, if not all, of the Community colleges in this state. Of those I remember:

No sports teams.  Teams, pricey gyms, and sports scholarships are common with coaches getting high salaries

Master degree staff.  Many PhD on board.  Too many staff with questionable credentials in the areas they teach. In one class the instructor made an  
   assignment for the students to conduct research without the knowledge of the participants in the study.

No publish or perish.  A number of colleges ask for publishing history of new faculty.  

50% of classes to be trades.  In some colleges in my area this is nit even close.  Nursing classes are virtually purely academic with the explanation that
     your future.employer will train you.

Jay Angler wrote:

Dan Robinson wrote:... though after retirement, I am now a part-time Adjunct Professor (engineering), which pays peanuts on the dollar (but I'm not doing it for the money).

I have heard that's part of the problem. We've got lots of retiring well seniors who are willing to work for peanuts in the jobs that used to go to Professor wannabees. The University saves money while getting real world experience.

Not sure if that will eventually bite society in the ass - it may just encourage a return to genuine on the job training (which has largely been passed to Community Colleges in Canada). It certainly works with professions that require practical skills like nursing and welding.

"We've got lots of retiring well seniors who are willing to work for peanuts in the jobs that used to go to Professor wannabees."

I don't know about Canada, but here in the U.S. that is not true. Adjunct (part-time) professors have always been paid little money. In other words, teaching doesn't pay. Even full-time professors who are only teachers and do not conduct research are not paid much. The professors making the most money are tenured in major research universities. But the competition has always been stiff for those types of jobs due to a glut of PhDs worldwide.

Usually, if a person gets a PhD with the intent of going into academia at a research university, they seek a postdoc position in hopes of securing a full-time position later. And these positions pay less.

There are not many professors who retire and do adjunct work. They don't need to. The people doing it are like me, who have retired from industry and do it because we enjoy it, and it keeps us mentally active. Furthermore, if the schools have adjunct positions available, they love to hire people with industrial experience who can bring that experience into the classroom.

Dan Robinson wrote:... here in the U.S. that is not true. Adjunct (part-time) professors have always been paid little money. In other words, teaching doesn't pay.

That's a huge problem. Traditionally, here in Canada, teachers had a strong union and were paid quite well. That's slipping because the cost of living is rising faster than wages.

Similarly, all the education underlying costs (books, infrastructure, cleaning etc) have also risen faster than the funding to support it.

And the Gov't supported "integration of disabled students" without defining certain minimum standards. This has had benefits from the social point of view, but without adequate assistant care, puts more stress on the teacher. It issue isn't the principle, it's the will to do it right.

John F Dean wrote:

No sports teams.  Teams, pricey gyms, and sports scholarships are common with coaches getting high salaries

Yes! I remember reading about a College in the US deciding to ditch their football team and turn the field into an organic food garden. Students who volunteered to help grow, got discounts against course costs up to a percentage. The food was for the cafeterias, with extra going to "neighbors", particularly the elderly. It looked like a brilliant approach.

paul wheaton wrote:the setup

I found myself sitting at a table with three "muggles".  We introduced ourselves.  Our hostess was working a few part time jobs, including this gig of hosting us.  The other woman was a software engineer.  The other fella was ...   i hope i remembered correctly ...   an "AI manager" (somebody that gets AI to do stuff).   I think I said I was a retired software engineer.  


the question

At some point the hostess says that she dropped out of college and is thinking of returning.   The driving force is that when she looks for work, the highest paid jobs are for software engineers.  

The three of us all say:  don't.

The three of us agree:  in six months there will be a 20% reduction in software engineers as a lot of the work that needs to be done is moved to AI.  The workers that will be kept are the best workers that are using AI to get more done.   In two years, the earliest she might be getting out of college, software engineering jobs will be less than half of what they are now.  There will be no hiring of engineers fresh out of college.  


the next question

So she asks what will be the jobs of two years from now?  What should she study?

Again, the three of us agree: nothing.

We couldn't think of anything that won't be done cheaper than AI or bots with AI.  She would be wiser to stick to her current work and try to save up to prepare for the changes.

I said "if you have a humble home and a large garden, these problems are a lot smaller."

What I didn't do, was talk at length about gert.  Or skip.  Or ERE. Or FIRE.

I hear from many people (and see it all over the internet):  gotta stop AI; gotta stop the bots ...    "DEY TERK ER JERBS!"    ...   it strikes me as twisted to desire jobs so much.    

I met couples that both had professional jobs and no kids (DINKs) and yet, they still seemed to be barely getting by.  Lots of travel, lots of excellent restaurants, a big, lavish home with a beautiful kitchen ...  Lots of arguing about money ... lots of feeling spent/depleted/exhausted ....  

I don't mention gardening to them.  They don't have time to even think about gardening.

If one of them loses their job, they will be in a very desperate place in three months.


the crystal ball

I look forward to getting a bot.  I want to think of a clever name for my bot.  I will teach it to build hugelkultur and what to plant.  To cut snowberry down to 4 inches.  At a certain point, pluck grass.  All the grass.  Every day.  In the winter, shovel the snow and build the fire.  Build a wofati.  Can peaches. Dry plums.  Cook a glorious meal.  Take care of me when I am old and feeble.  

The world will be very different.  A lot of people will be forced to live very humbly because there are hardly any jobs.  A bot will cost $20k and last ten years.  It might need $100 worth of electricity each year. Hard to compete with that.

Those that saved up and went into humble mode before the change are in good shape.  


the answer

Retire early.

I provide acres and the bootcamp and there are openings.  

The SKIP program is free.   Compared to the number of people going into $100,000 debt to go to a four year college ....    oh my.  

Early Retirement Extreme:  I would think there would be a run on this book right now.  

Building a Better World in Your Backyard instead of being angry at bad guys:  I sell a dozen per month.  I feel like this provides powerful guidance.

Gert:  a humble home and a large garden

apples in safeway:  the story of making money, then more money, then more money, and the final answer is gertitude.

permaculture:  a more symbiotic relationship with nature

Gardening Gardeners:  I like to think that someday there will be 100,000 homesteads in the US and they will be open to a "gardening gardeners" program.  Allowing 20 people to come onto their land and experience gardening and natural building.  Of course, I need to get it to work at my place first.  



I don't know how the next six months will play out.  It sounds like the layoffs have started.  

We have openings in the bootcamp, so I guess people have not yet connected the dots.  My guess is that soon the bootcamp will be full.  

Of course, I could be wrong.  



My guess is that there are a lot of other solutions.  I would love to add some more permaculture solutions to my list.  Anybody have some more solutions?

I teach online for a university (I have been teaching only for 20 years; have also taught in the classroom; spent over 18 years in the computer industry until 9/11 happened. My education allow me to fall back and get teacher certification relatively easy since I was already highly qualified with a BS/MS in content.) College is not for everyone. If your degree program can NOT guarantee a job, then look in tech schools, the kind that Mike Rowe pushes. Look into skilled trades, very much needed.