Novel coronavirus (covid-19), Pandemic or Not?

I was unclear.  I did read and understand the no alcohol on the N95, thank you for the links.

Could other PPE (gowns/gloves/goggles) be safely reused if disinfected with alcohol/HP/bleach solutions.

What would you recommend for using same for general home cleaning/sanitizing/disinfecting, specifically how long solutions should SIT wet on items and surfaces.

Does swiping down the grocery cart handle immediately render it sanitized or does it need "X" minutes of wet to dry time?

My apologies for lack of clarity. I did read the links you kindly provided, and understand that alcohol+N95 mask = bad.  I like the oven method recommended, but hoped I could rely on the 6% HP, when not at home.

More so it was surface disinfection (in home and in public) like wiping down shopping carts or groceries with alcohol, HP, bleach, wipes (lysol...) and if I'm fooling myself attempting to sanitize these items. I have asthma, hubby is over 80 with leukemia. Just trying to source "best practices". Thank you TJ for the valuable insight you provided.

Choir practice turns fatal. Airborne coronavirus strongly suspected

On March 6, Adam Burdick, the choir's conductor, informed the 121 members in an email that amid the "stress and strain of concerns about the virus," practice would proceed as scheduled at Mount Vernon Presbyterian Church.
"I'm planning on being there this Tuesday March 10, and hoping many of you will be, too," he wrote.  Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes. After 2½ hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m. Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

Tj Jefferson wrote:
Ask away.
 

Thank you for answering my questions!


I have one more question...


My wife insists that if either of us ends up needing ICU care that we will end up alone without having family allowed to come see us since the ICU will be a massive infectious area.

However, she stated that they WOULD allow us to visit our children if the same was to happen to them. Is this true???

I don't want them to be alone if that happens.

I would want me and the wife to take turns visiting and keep the other child at home. Maybe do a video chat so they can support each other.

I would expect all hospitals would have a no visitors of any kind policy. Every visitor, even if also sick, would provide an opportunity to spread it more.  Limited movement between treatment areas to only medical teams.  
This is why we must limit outside trips and visitors.  the longer it takes for everyone to comply the longer we will have to do this.

Could other PPE (gowns/gloves/goggles) be safely reused if disinfected with alcohol/HP/bleach solutions.

Yes, aim for 20 sec contact time wet and wash hands after anyway. Peroxide degrades fast so be careful 3% is 2 1/2% after a week open or about.

Unfortunately the ICU is no visitors pretty much everywhere. Risk is way too high. Kids not sure probably similar. One hospital still allows one visitor per admission but they will be no visitors unless you can prove immunity. In a few months we will need the immune to staff the hospitals.

From the above article, some important info on Progression of symptoms over time:

Practice on Tuesday March 10

Day 3 -Three days later, Comstock felt chills. A sweater didn’t help. She took her temperature: 99.3.
She and Owen canceled their plans for dinner that night at the Backlunds' house.
At 9 p.m., she got a text from Ruth Backlund. Ruth, 72, and Mark, 73, had fevers.

Day 4 - Burdick woke up the next day, March 14, with a fever. As his temperature rose to 103, he began hearing from other choir singers.
They felt fatigued and achy. Some had fevers, coughs and shortness of breath they had heard were telltale symptoms of COVID-19. Some had nausea and diarrhea.

Day 5 - On March 15, Comstock, 62, noticed something odd when she made pasta. She couldn't taste the sauce, a spicy Italian sausage. She would soon learn that loss of taste and smell was a common symptom too. When Owen, 66, first felt sick that day, he found that his temperature was below normal, a symptom that continued. The same day, the Backlunds tested negative for influenza. Their clinic sent out their samples for coronavirus tests, which would come back four days later showing they both had COVID-19.

Day 8 - March 18, Burdick received a message from Nancy "Nicki" Hamilton, an 83-year-old soprano, known for her political activism and tales of international travel. She was worried about a fellow member.

Day 11 - Three days later, he received another call. Hamilton had been rushed to the hospital soon after he had talked with her and now she was dead.

Day 15 - Others felt the disease waning. Fifteen days after the rehearsal, Comstock squirted shampoo into her hand and experienced an odd and pleasing sensation.
It smelled. Like coconut.

Day 16 - Another death.

The youngest of those sickened was 31, but they averaged 67, according to the health department.

Some quotes from the guy who invented the choice mask. N95  

Sterilization using radioactive such as gamma rays has the potential to decompose the PP materials, using alcohol will erase the charges. However, charges are retained by exposing the masks in the hot air at elevated temperatures such as 70C for 30 minutes, which kills the coronavirus according to a report. But be sure to suspend the masks in the hot air without contacting or being too close to a metal surface because the metal temperature is much higher than that of the hot air leading to a severe charge decay or to the damage of the masks.

Q5: Can the masks be treated using steam?

A: Yes, our investigation showed that the charge loss on the electret is unnoticeable by sterilization using 125oC steam for three minutes.

My friend, Dr. Cai, a retired filtration testing scientist, had experimental data conducted in February 2020 as in the below table that support my above result in the past.
Steam treatment Experimental Theoretical Prediction
Initial FE (3-fold medical mask) 93.2% N95 (99%)
Steam for 5 minutes 91.7% 98.5%
Steam for 30 minutes 85.2% 97.5%



The first web link in Q3 had similar insignificant charge decay as above sterilized using hot water vapor.

Q6: Can the respirator be treated by boiling water?

A: Yes, our investigation showed that the charge loss on the media is unnoticeable in boiling water for three minutes but stirring on the mask is not recommended to avoid its physical damage.

My friend, Dr. Cai, a retired filtration testing scientist, had experimental data conducted in February 2020 as in the below table that agree with my above result in the past.
Boiling water treatment
Initial FE (3-fold medical mask) 93.2%
Boiling for 5 minutes 92.4%
Boiling for 30 minutes 83.6%

I've heard of various times a mask is "useful" for, from 20 minutes to 3hrs (likely depends on type of mask?). Any input on that?

Hope not we wear them for 8-12 hour shifts.

3M has a document explaining the N95, Surgical N95 and surgical masks.  
https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/1794572O/surgical-n95-vs-standard-n95-which-to-consider.pdf

We need to ensure the surgical N95 masks get to the places that need them.

I apologize in advance, if anyone finds this offensive...but I just spent two hours watching Trump go on and on and on about Corona Virus and am shocked at how he is more worried about the economy than health of the country.  Over and over he says "The cure cannot be worse than the disease", even suggested that perhaps by Easter Sunday restrictions can be lifted for Church Services, that sports, concerts etc. should be back to normal "soon" and even his political convention planned for August should be no problem.  Please, do not listen to this man, do not believe that this is a minor blip that will be "solved" within a few weeks, and everything will be back to normal, with the exception of the odd "outbreak".  This is NOT TRUE.  I am blessed to live in a country with Universal Health Care, England has Universal Health Care, they are being hit hard - look outside the USA to see how this is hitting other countries.

Based on what we have seen here in BC, and the rest of Canada, the key is NO GATHERINGS (birthday parties,weddings, funerals...).  Have contact ONLY with those in your household, insist on social distancing of at least 6-7 feet outside your home.  Do not touch railings, playground equipment etc.  Do not use use public tennis courts, basketball courts, gyms.  Do not take reusable bags to the grocery store.  Do not visit family that does not reside with you, do not visit hospitals or care homes.  Yes, go outside, but keep your distance, do not let others pet your dog, don't touch anything or your face.  If you are in a heavily populated metropolitan center, or a residential building, do not go out, the common areas like elevators or stairs are impossible to keep clean.  ASSUME everyone, including yourself, is infected.  The key is to SLOW the spread so that health facilities are not overwhelmed.  We have learned here that the EARLIER you go on a vent, the better; fewer deaths, quicker recovery, and it provides greater protection for the health care workers dealing with those patients.  BC is aggressively fighting this virus, we ramped up restrictions in a timely manner, focused testing on travelers (tracking and stopping community spread) heath care workers and health care residents.  We have been very fortunate to have "flattened the curve" very quickly, preventing the overwhelming of our health care resources.  Other provinces, slower to respond, have experienced exponentially greater spread, contraction and death.  Please, learn from us.  Immediately assume self protective measures, especially in densely populated areas.

If you, or any family members residing with you are elderly, have lung or immune issues, diabetes, heart disease etc...the entire family unit MUST avoid contact with others.  No going for coffee, play dates, restaurants, bars, gyms, yoga, swimming, church, mosque, synagogue, choir, no social gathering outside the home AT ALL for any member of the family unit.  The healthy can be infected, 80% will have minor to no symptoms, but they can unknowingly pass it to compromised family members who may not be so lucky.  

ASSUME everything at the grocery store is contaminated, do not get "bulk food", only packaged food that allows for external sanitation, wash all produce as soon as it enters your home or switch to frozen.  ASSUME everything ordered on line is contaminated, everything delivered is contaminated, wipe down everything with appropriate disinfecting solutions, including mail.  ASSUME the items inside your mail order packages are contaminated, and disinfect them.  Adopt a twice daily sanitation routine within your home, wiping down touch surfaces (railings, light switches, door handles, appliance knobs and handles, cupboard handles, drawer pulls, faucets, and those places you touch with out thinking - doors, chair arms etc.).  Don't forget phones, remotes, calculators, keyboards.  Literally do everything you can to ensure you create a safe bubble within your home, if you have a health compromised family member.

Here, in BC and Canada the political figures agree with the health professionals projections that this will be affecting us for as long as 18-24 mths - until herd immunity or a vaccine is available.  Look to other countries for info on best practises, use common sense, protect your at risk family members, and keep safe.

Lorinnr, I’m directly involved and I’m more concerned with the economy than the likely 1-2% direct mortality. I could be in that mortality wave. The cost can be seen in Guayaquil and other locations that have marginal economies and barely support logistics to feed their populations.

I suspect this 1-2% maybe higher mortality will be followed by a terrible famine in the third world that will dwarf the direct mortality. The world is bigger than the developed world. This food insecurity is very real and will be used as a cudgel by authoritarian governments like Venezuela where I have friends.

We are very channelized on ventilators and ICUs but this will be won or lost in economic terms. No country has seen robust unemployment go this bad this fast. Sicily and South Africa already have food riots.

No pandemic has ever been outrun and I don’t think this one will either. Please prove me wrong. Vaccines in a year are immaterial. We don’t make the possible treatment drugs only made in China. The weather seems to be helpful. Sweden seems to be the smartest right now and I predict they will have less disruptions than most of the world.

No SARS vaccine and we’ve had more than a decade. Suicidal rates in crashing economies are very high two Air Force cadets in one day- unheard of. Law enforcement friends report 40% higher domestic disturbance with lockdowns. People cannot live in isolation for the most, it’s very unnatural.

I cannot imagine this distancing to continue beyond a few month’s. We need an endgame that is herd immunity. It’s gonna suck.

SARS was fractionally as contagious as Covid-19, not "worth" developing a vaccine.  

My advice is primarily, for those at risk, but regardless, the world economy is screwed, as are those at risk and those with family members at risk.

Those people, areas, states, and countries who are not pro-active, who don't shut things down when it jumps from tracking and isolating the contagious to community spread will pay a massive economic price, on top of the human cost.

Being short sighted or focused on the economy at this time, I fear, will become a horrible chapter in history, that will never be forgotten.

Lorinne Anderson wrote:

Being short sighted or focused on the economy at this time, I fear, will become a horrible chapter in history, that will never be forgotten.

I agree that society needs to step up their quarantine game. It will slow the spread and thus decrease the death rate. I still think it will be way worse than the 100k to 240k deaths in the U.S. that they are estimating to have pulled the curve back down to. If everyone gets it in the U.S. and say 3.4% of us don't make it (but the system does not get too overrun) that would be around 11.2 million deaths. Anything less than that is good. If they keep it below 1 million it would be amazing.

However, I can completely understand why Trump is freaking out about the economy crashing too far. If it fully fails (to the point of no return)... it has been estimated that around 90% of the population would be dead within a year. A bit worse than the plague I would say! Worse case... what I see coming right now... is Great Depression level of economic collapse. I am pretty sure un-employment claims have already almost climbed to those levels.

Soon folks who cannot afford to buy food or pay bills... or can't go to work due to being sick... will start food rioting in certain areas like larger cities. Unless they have a plan in the works to get food into people's hands.

I assume that it is unstoppable at this point and that everything the talking heads on TV are telling us is just to keep everyone from panicking. So I am peacefully stocking up on dry foods when I can afford. Same for other supplies. Just put in a new small garden for fresh produce (few months away). I am also building a chicken coop for the new chickens.

Planning a little further out as well. Getting the mower into tip-top shape. If I can get it running right.... I will buy a bagger for it. Then I will use my 1 acre of grass/clover lawn mix to make hay. I will dry the hay on a tarp in the driveway and then store. The hay will be used for some Ruth-Stout gardening, mulch/fertilizer around the fruit trees I just put into the ground, the chickens, other animals in the future (If things get that bad). Luckily we just installed a fresh 5' fence around the back of the house. Leaving most of the yard un-fenced back there. So I can have animals penned up near the house... but still have fresh hay to harvest and around half an acre for garden and fruit/etc.

All this being said... my wife likely got exposed by a co-worker at the hospital last night. They went from feeling perfectly normal to having heat sweats/chills in cycles and full body aches before the staff told them to go home. My wife was working directly next to them. Since my daughter has a systemic auto-immune disorder. I set up a quarantined portion of the house for the wife. Not going to work. However, perhaps it will minimalize the initial exposure we all get. Enabling our immune systems to build up before being overrun.

Apparently that makes a bit of a difference down the road as things progress in the body.

L orinne, we have had (along with China and S Korea and Japan) very active sars vaccine development and medication development for years at ft Dietrich. None of them appear to work and I would estimate we spent around 100 million in the attempt. Other countries spent more. It has not been from lack of trying. Vaccines are tricky and we still have no vaccines that really work for the flu (it’s modestly effective in a good year). There’s a good target protein and I am hopeful for a vaccine but the virus can also shift and make it useless. Optimistic would be a year from now. The global economy  will not last that long.

In terms of transmission, I think ( but do not know) that low level initial infection probably promotes a milder course. Hand washing and masking should have been done long time. Intrafamily transmission in tight quarters is especially dangerous I believe, which is why the worst numbers will be in crowded urban areas.

Marty I am sorry for your wife’s presumptive exposure. It’s scary and I feel for her. I’ve had a few likely but no symptoms yet. More chances tomorrow! I have a family member with moderate symptoms we are monironing.

Tj Jefferson wrote:L orinne, we have had (along with China and S Korea and Japan) very active sars vaccine development and medication development for years at ft Dietrich. None of them appear to work and I would estimate we spent around 100 million in the attempt. Other countries spent more. It has not been from lack of trying. Vaccines are tricky and we still have no vaccines that really work for the flu (it’s modestly effective in a good year). There’s a good target protein and I am hopeful for a vaccine but the virus can also shift and make it useless. Optimistic would be a year from now. The global economy  will not last that long.

In terms of transmission, I think ( but do not know) that low level initial infection probably promotes a milder course. Hand washing and masking should have been done long time. Intrafamily transmission in tight quarters is especially dangerous I believe, which is why the worst numbers will be in crowded urban areas.

Marty I am sorry for your wife’s presumptive exposure. It’s scary and I feel for her. I’ve had a few likely but no symptoms yet. More chances tomorrow! I have a family member with moderate symptoms we are monironing.

I wish you and your family luck! Thank you for your service by the way!!! Both on this forum and in real life...

Luckily we have a few expired masks for her to cycle through. Otherwise I am just going to try and convince her to help me out in the garden to make some vitamin D.

It is very scary indeed... and saddening at the same time. She keeps looking like she is about to cry. I can tell she wants to hug and kiss the little ones... then starts to tear up and walks back into the bedroom. She is feeling fine at the moment and just went for a run out in the countryside this morning. It will take up to 2 weeks to start showing them symptoms though sadly. Which is an insanely long time.

I have to call the boss today and tell them I have to stay at home to watch the kids and her now.

Marty Mitchell wrote:... it has been estimated that around 90% of the population would be dead within a year.  

I'm sorry for the challenges your family is having right now.  I work in an area that now has 5 verified positive cases, and it's concerning to say the least.

I'm curious about that 90% number.  Do you know how it was arrived at?  I can't even imagine it would be from starvation.  Maybe from lack of hospital care?  I just can't see any way 90% of the population dies from this.

Trace Oswald wrote:

Marty Mitchell wrote:... it has been estimated that around 90% of the population would be dead within a year.  

I'm sorry for the challenges your family is having right now.  I work in an area that now has 5 verified positive cases, and it's concerning to say the least.

I'm curious about that 90% number.  Do you know how it was arrived at?  I can't even imagine it would be from starvation.  Maybe from lack of hospital care?  I just can't see any way 90% of the population dies from this.

It has been some years since I heard those numbers. I don't even remember where I read it at. I will have to do some searching around later and provide a link.

I am pretty sure it was due to mass food shortages/starvation/nobody knows how to grow food anymore nor store it for Winter, fighting, disease, lack of water, heat strokes/freezing to death, etc. combined. At this point it looks like we will get everyone back to work before that happens... which is a good thing.

I have some errands to do for a little while. I will do some searching around online in a bit and find you a link if I can.

The news you get from Spain, Great Britain and the US are scary enough.

But there are indeed places that are not in the public focus and that are hit harder.

I have seen documentaries on townships in South Africa where people live packed and in extreme poverty, there is no chance of social distancing. Same in other megacities and slums around the world. Imagine what could happen in India, the Brazilian favelas and places like the Greek island of Lesbos with thousands of immigrants stuck in make-shift shelters.

I have read that the indigenous population in the Amazonia had its first case of Corona infection.

And I have seen an interesting news story on an ultra orthodox town in Israel where the people rely on strictly following religious rules instead of scientific recommendations, same for orthodox christians that are soon to celebrate Easter and the believers kiss an icon, one after the other. You need just one of them to be infectious.

There are moments when life feels very normal, like this weekend in the garden, and others where the news can overwhelm you. Our nearest hospital is now closed (in quarantine) as one patient who was treated for another illness has infected many of the doctors and nurses. You better get not sick now.

If the unthinkable happens (assuming this progresses elsewhere, as it has in BC or Canada, or Spain, or France or Italy, or England), these are the everyday services you are about to lose.  Act now and ensure you are not left without.  This is where we are at, and what is happening, or has occurred, here in BC...But we have also lowered the virus spread from 24% daily increase, two weeks ago to a 2% daily increase, as of yesterday.

Say good bye to ancillary healthcare: physiotherapy, chiropractic therapy, massage therapy, acupuncture, naturopaths, dentists, denturists, optometrists etc.  All will or should be shut down.

Say good bye to your normal daily, weekly, or monthly appointments:  hair salons, nail salons, gyms, swimming pools, playgrounds, basketball courts, tennis courts, etc.  All will or should be shut down.

Say good bye to any "regular" non-essential medical care: wart removal, ultra sounds, x-rays, monitoring blood panels, etc.  Unless urgent, these will be reserved for serious or critical (my shoulder injury from January, and my wrist injury are no longer important enough to have diagnostic testing done to determine the problem).

Say good bye to any "day programs":  adult care, respite care, child care.  All will or should be shut down; or reserved for essential workers.

Say good bye to all kid activities:  school, play programs, sports programs, art lessons, music lessons, basically any organized activity for kids, special needs or otherwise, will or should be shut down.

Say good by to any in person socializing:  eat in restaurants, going for coffee, going for a run with friends, movies, theatres, music events, bars, clubs, poker games, mahjong, bridge, birthday parties, weddings, funerals, celebrations of any sort.  Come up with a plan to meet these social interactions in a contactless manner.

Say good bye scavenging:  flea markets, garage sales, thrift stores, second hand stores, swap and shop, trades etc.  All will or should be shut down.

Ensure your prescriptions are up to date, and have refills.  Expect pharmacies to run low on certain items, and that rationing (one month supply only, no purchasing 6 mths) will occur.  Especially critical for those with asthma, diabetes, heart disease, cancer etc.

If you run a business, or are employed in a workforce that is considered non-essential, you will be at either unemployed and at home; or if you are lucky, working from home - UNLESS you figure out now how to operate in a manner that requires no contact.  Pretty much this is every Mom and Pop business, restaurants, food service, all personal care related businesses, all sports related businesses, etc.  If you supply a food service business, get a plan in place to redirect your food stuffs, or ensure those you supply have a plan to go to delivery, take out or pick up only.

Now is the time to talk to your employer about working from home, setting up a home office, and figuring out and getting all your "ducks in a row".  If you have children, get a backup childcare plan in place, with a relative or neighbor.

If you have livestock, pets or other animals, requiring regular vet/farrier services.  Do it NOW.  Ensure you have adequate feed/food/water, supply chains will be disrupted and feed stores will have shortages, pet stores will likely close or go on delivery only.  Ensure you have all meds, dewormers etc. on hand now.  Create a multi pronged backup plan in case you fall ill and can no longer care for your animals or livestock.

Discover who in your area is 'at risk' of not being able to meet their own needs for going out, grocery shopping, caring for their livestock etc.  Get a buddy system set up to make sure no one loses their animals or put themselves at risk to to care for themselves or their animals, this is especially critical for those who run rescues or volunteer organizations, donations and staff are about to dry up.

Get your computer serviced, your TV, any appliances or tools anything that you have been holding off on, get it done now.  These things will soon be difficult or unavailable to obtain.

Check your septic, get it pumped and or serviced, now.  Same with the well, get all moving parts checked, serviced and have anything that is "cobbled together" fixed properly.  Failure of either of these systems at this time could be catastrophic.

If you want a new job, to replace what you currently do, look to anything that involves delivery, get your vehicle serviced and ready to go.

I am in no way suggesting hoarding...but know that things like hand sanitizer, isopropyl alcohol (rubbing alcohol), lysol (or any disinfecting) wipes, OTC meds for pain and allergies, toilet paper, yeast, flour, sugar and pet food will suffer supply distribution problems, and at times be scarce, unavailable or rationed.  At times meat counters were wiped out, as were dairy and other perishables.  These shortages were completely due to hoarding - stores could not stock these items fast enough - and not a lack of supply.  So from now on, do not assume you will be able to get what you want, when you want.  Shop when you have less than a two week supply, do not wait until Fido is out of dog food, know you may have to wait a few days or a week to restock.

I highly recommend you assume a lockdown is inevitable, be it government imposed or self imposed for personal safety.  Good luck, stay safe, and be good to your neighbors.

Lorinne, very good list, many of these topics are already in place here in Germany (over three weeks now).

Regarding music lessons: As soon as the notice was out that schools would close, the piano teacher of daughter number 2 already set up an online lesson system. They have both set their smartphones at the piano and it works fine, even if the transmission is sometimes a bit wonky.
Both her gymnastics and ballet teachers send out videos with exercises.

The tennis teacher of daughter number 1 sends out exercises every week as well.

Regarding food and services:
Anyone with a little bit of intelligence can work out that things (like groceries, especially fruit and veggies) will get much more expensive this year or not make it to the shelves. A lot of those groceries come from regions that are currently in lockdown (no veggies or flowers arrive from the Netherlands currently), that will have shortages of labourers (Germany, Spain, Italy)  or that will run into deep trouble in the near future (South Africa).

I fear it will be a bit like Fontaine's fable of the cicada and the ant. Of course I will help out those in need, but I would be much more willing to help if I saw that others took precautions as well. Everybody should plant a garden, not just worry which Netflix series will be available during school lockdowns.

On a municipal level, every town has ramped up their neighbourhood service - which was in place before for the elderly, sick, families without stable income. Everybody can apply for help or as a helper, this works very well.
Bigger cities might show a different picture as they sometimes have whole neighbourhoods with low income population.

It's official, the Oktoberfest has been cancelled for this year. Every thing else would have been insanity.

There are already instructions on how to celebrate your Oktoberfest home-office style:
Take a one-litre beer jug (you only get big jugs there) and fill with 0.75 litres of beer (because the tents are famous for under-serving)
Take a two hundred Euro note and set it on fire
Molest your flat mate in a very indecent manner
Vomit on your shirt
Done!

On a more serious note, many important events are also being cancelled.
In April there should have been the 75 year anniversary of the liberation of the Dachau Concentration Camp.
And also in spring there should have been the big Celebration of 900 years of founding the Monastery which is today my son's school.
Well, everybody has to deal with the unexpected this year.