Novel coronavirus (covid-19), Pandemic or Not?

Some additional clarifying information FWIW:  SARS-CoV-2 is defined as the *virus* that is causing COVID-19, the *disease*.

"Laboratory testing. As part of laboratory surge capacity for the response, CDC laboratories are testing for SARS-CoV-2 to assist with diagnosis of COVID-19. During January 18–February 23, CDC laboratories used real-time reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to test 2,620 specimens from 1,007 persons for SARS-CoV-2. Some additional testing is performed at selected state and other public health laboratories, with confirmatory testing at CDC. CDC is developing a serologic test to assist with surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 circulation in the U.S. population. The test detects antibodies (immunoglobulin [Ig]G, IgA, and IgM) indicating SARS-COV-2 virus exposure or past infection. In addition, CDC laboratories are developing assays to detect SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA and antigens in tissue specimens. Finally, following CDC’s establishment of SARS-CoV-2 in cell culture, CDC shared virus isolates with the Biodefense and Emerging Infections Research Resources Repository to securely distribute isolates to U.S. public health and academic institutions for additional research, including vaccine development."  --  https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6908e1.htm

So if we round up and put the corona virus death count at 3000 over about 1/10 of a year, that is a notable number of individual tragedies. However, it is less than the number of gun related homicides in the US alone in a similar amount of time -- 39,773 deaths by firearm in 2017 (divide by 10 for a similar period of time to corovid 19 timeframe):
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States

Automobile accidents were similarly numerous:
- 36,560:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

I studied perception of risk fairly extensively in my Adventure Education masters program, and we as humans have a pretty poor sense of proportional risk. Schools that allow football (which I played and learned a lot from but also have permanent injuries from it) and send students in aluminum death traps down the road without seatbelts, will balk at much safer activities like backpacking or canoeing trips that have transformational educational potential at least as great as slamming ones body into another kids for sport. Imagine if we reacted to these horrific gun and auto death rates in the same way we are freaking out about Corovid 19?

Just a bit of perspective. Not saying anyone should forego hand washing and other sensible preventions of communicable disease, but I work with kids who are terrified of this virus that has infected 1/875,000 people on earth, when they have been exposed to much greater risks every day of their lives.

I have decided to check back in towards the end of every day to post a daily update on the track/spread of SARS 2/COVID 19.


Here is what I posted up yesterday for the top 6 infected countries...

"China: 78,497 Confirmed, 2,744 Dead, 32,879 Recovered

South Korea: 1766 C, 13D, 22R  

Diamond Princess Cruise ship: 705 C, 4 D, 10R

Italy: 528C, 14D, 40R

Iran: 245C, 26D, 49R  

Japan: 189C, 3D, 22R"




Here is the stats for the top 6 countries for today. The John Hopkins site tends to do another update late in the evening as well. I will add the U.S. to the list as well since I live there.

China: 78,824 Confirmed, 2,788 Dead, 36,268 Recovered

South Korea: 2337 C, 13D, 22R

Diamond Princess Cruise ship: 705 C, 1 D (Dropped 3??? It said 5 earlier too...), 10R

Italy: 888C, 21D, 46R

Iran: 388C, 34D, 73R  

Japan: 228C, 4D, 22R  

United States: Moved from 60 to 62 Confirmed, 0D, 6R

EDIT:
The Diamond Princess now says 06 Deaths and 10 Recovered. It got fixed...

In Canada now, we are being advised to stock up on food and meds.  https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/covid-19-how-to-prepare-at-home-for-potential-quarantine-1.4832097

At the grocery store today, a lot more people than normal.  Most of them with twenty or more pot noodles.

Definitely a good time to own shares in instant noodles!

Hopefully this is not too political. I don't think so but I'm not ver tied in to politics. I asked someone I trust in infectious disease about the situation and got a pretty simple response:

1) the numbers from China are completely false. It appears they have accepted community spread and are simply trying to keep it out of certain areas with the grid system. The rest of the country will go back to work and live or die.
2) there is asymptomatic transmission, so no traditional screening is effective. Only the test kits and there are not enough of them, and not really very good.
3) the R0 is somewhere between 2 and 3 at this point, much higher than prior epidemics. Given that number it is likely to be burned out long before a vaccine is available. Maybe 6-9 months.
4) the mortality seems to be around 1-2% with good ICU capabilities. The medical professionals got hit so hard in China they don't have staff to run the ICUs they built.
5) the mortality without ICU care is much higher. He estimates 5-10% since 15% or so require ICU admission and most of those will die.
6) the secondary mortality from medication shortages (since 85% of pharmaceuticals are manufactured or dependent on intermediates from China) will be significant. Would not venture an estimate. Many are accounted in the prior statistic.
7) hopefully the warmer weather will decrease the severity

I am putting this out here because this is the same source for my prior posts who was dead on a month ago. I cannot see it going any other way based on the above premises.

Recommendations:
1) lower inflammation - no smoking, alcohol, get exercise and sleep
2) wash hands properly, not just a baptismal rinse
3) limit obvious spread situations, avoid communal eating (likely the rapid spread in Iran and S Korea)
4) Wash hands after using mass transit, and sanitize anything you touched during the trip
5) Masks are better than nothing. Social control is preferred.

My take on a couple things- pure speculation
1) Spread by droplets and by fecal/oral - generally better to get fecal/oral based on anthrax and other epidemics. 90% of the immune system is in the gut, and it lets that get more exposure before the viral expansion. Not sure how to make this work in the real world!
2) Get outside! Get a resource for herbal remedies and identify local wild herbals.

They just announced the first death in the US and that it's spreading within the community.  Please be prepared for sickness.  The general advice I'm heeding is to keep a month's supply of medicine, food and cleaning supplies.  Stay safe and be prepared if you have to stay home for a while.  The next few weeks/months should be "interesting".  :(

@ TJ Jefferson...

Well... that sounds horrible. If 15% of the world were to perish within then next few years... that is around 1,125,000,000 lives that will perish.

My daughter has an auto-immune disorder and is the main reason I have been watching so closely.

I will not be able to post up the new #'s for all of the top countries tonight. There has been a MASSIVE bump in #s for most of the top countries. Several new countries have now made it into the triple digits. The U.S. has now had its first death. We now have 70 Confirmed, 1 Death, and 7 Recovered.

Ya'll can check out the #s here....

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Made a stop by Costco earlier and saw several folks wearing masks. Wish I could have brought more home.

Time to get my gardening on! I may disappear for a while. I just moved into my new home and still have dozens of fruit trees to get into the ground... AND a new garden to build.

As soon as the garden is built I will likely immediately start on a putting up a large greenhouse for extended season... and may do 50/50 aquaponics/sip raised beds. Wanted to do in-ground citrus but may change priorities now. Got to maximize the space.

This is not a call to panic, far from it. This is a time to get some work done the way people have during all other pandemics- reduce spread, work in a way you decrease the chance of spread into your house, and make sure you are ready for kids out of school. I would be shocked if school is open next week.

I love CBC. Usually very balanced, thoughtful, and calm coverage, non alarmist, especially the radio programs.

So this is... worrisome. Here are transcripts:

"As it Happens" - usually factual and in depth "overlooked" kinds of news stories

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-thursday-edition-1.5478080/epidemiologist-warns-of-major-coronavirus-outbreak-contradicting-trump-1.5478081

"Quirks and Quarks" - science based entertainment news, usually, with latest and greatest in weird and exciting science.
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/quirks/feb-29-coronavirus-containment-window-closing-whale-skin-care-gingko-trees-eternal-youth-and-more-1.5479343/we-may-have-passed-the-tipping-point-in-the-covid-19-coronavirus-outbreak-1.5479345

and from "Cross Country Checkup" - usually interviews with "experts", with people from all over the country able to call in and ask questions on their mind.
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/checkup/should-medical-assistance-in-dying-be-an-option-when-the-diagnosis-isn-t-terminal-1.5478629/5-lessons-about-covid-19-from-doctor-who-led-who-mission-to-china-1.5481938

My family and I rarely leave our property, but I fell while hiking the property last week, and had to be take to the hospital for stitches. I didn't want to go, but I was bleeding so much. It makes me nervous. We are pretty well stocked, we shouldn't need to leave if that becomes necessary. But I'm worried about my son in the Bay Area. He is immune-comprised and works with children. He isn't one to allow this to interfere with his job, his kids depend on him. He's an occupational therapist for autistic children. He doesn't like to upset them. We just can't handle losing someone else we love.

My elderly parents have two trips planned in the next few months, Hawaii and something in Europe. They think that I'm paranoid to be worried. I think that they are naive.

I saw an interesting documentary last night with scientists putting everything in relation.

People tend to grow accustomed to risks over time and underestimate them and vice versa. The probability of a car accident is far higher than now with Corona. Do we stop driving cars because of that? Hardly.

Risk with Corona: About 1 out of 10 persons who have direct and prolonged contact with an infected will catch the disease. Of that tenth, mortality is - according to age etc. - between 0.3 and 3 % (can't remember the exact numbers).

Apart from that, sensible hygiene and a healthy lifestyle are never inappropiate.

With regards to your parents:
As Blaise Pascal said in his Pensées: “All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone.”

You can make of that what you want ;-)

Anita, this is the data by age that has come out of China:


And here's the data by health condition:

I am not sure how reliable the Chinese data are and if they say much about the disease in other countries.
ETA: My SIL is chinese, and my nephew grew up partly in China. When he was there, he was always dealing with respiratory problems. When they relocated, those disappeared. What I want to say is that we know that there is a huge problem of air pollution which might throw the statistics off in that direction.

Here in Germany all infected persons are recovering at this stage, let's hope it stays the same with further infections.

It is logical that mortality rates go up (quite a lot) for the elderly and those with (chronic) illnesses.
But that is true for other diseases as well, like influenza or Noro or Rotavirus. Two of my children had to be hospitalized for that reason as they were in critical conditions as toddlers.

I don't want to downplay risks by any means, but panicking usually makes things worse.

Trying to avoid infections of any kind is advisable, but probably not possible.

Anita Martini wrote:
I don't want to downplay risks by any means, but panicking usually makes things worse.

Trying to avoid infections of any kind is advisable, but probably not possible.

Amen Anita!  I'm with you.  Today, unfortunately, they announced that the mortality rate has actually increased as the virus spreads outside China.  Currently it's now 3.4%.  We'll see how it plays out in the next few months.  Hopefully no one will panic, but will react appropriately with the data.  I'm sticking to the CDC advice to keep 30 days of food, medicine and cleaning supplies to be prepared for becoming ill.  I hope most folks will be able to do that for themselves.  

Just in case anyone hadn't heard, there's 9 deaths in Washington, out of 27 confirmed cases.

https://komonews.com/news/local/7th-coronavirus-death-reported-in-puget-sound-region

Here's info on 21 of those people, from the above article

The seven new cases in King County are:

A female in her 40s, worked at LifeCare, never hospitalized and is recovering at home
A female in her 60s, family member of a confirmed case of COVID-19, not hospitalized
A male in his 70s, a frequent visitor of LifeCare, hospitalization status unknown currently
A male in his 20s, unknown exposure, hospitalized at Swedish Issaquah
A male in his 20s, unknown exposure, hospitalized at Swedish Issaquah
A female in her 80s, resident of LifeCare, never hospitalized, died at her family home on 2/26/20
A male in his 50s, resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at Harborview Medical Center and died on 2/26/20

14 other cases in King County alone, already reported earlier by Public Health, include:

A male in his 50s, hospitalized at Highline Hospital. No known exposures. He is in stable but critical condition. He had no underlying health conditions.
A male in his 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The man had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20
A female in her 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20
A female in her 80s, a resident of LifeCare, was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth. She is in critical condition
A female in her 80s, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. This person died on 3/1/20.
A female in her 90s, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman has underlying health conditions, and is in critical condition
A male in his 70s, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The man has underlying health conditions, and is in critical condition
A male in his 70s was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth. He had underlying health conditions and died on 2/29/20.
A man in his 60s, hospitalized at Valley Medical Center in Renton.
A man in 60s, hospitalized at Virginia Mason Medical Center.
A woman in her 50s, who had traveled to South Korea; recovering at home
A woman in her 70s, who was a resident of LifeCare in Kirkland, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth and died on 3/2/20
A woman in her 40s, employed by LifeCare, who is hospitalized at Overlake Medical Center
A man in his 50s, who was hospitalized and died 2/28/20 at EvergreenHealth

It looks like there will be broad testing available pretty shortly after the screwup at CDC in atlanta last week with the reagents, and we should get some better numbers. Because (and I should point out I am no epidemiologist) we are unlikely to test an entire town just to get a number of how many people are infected, we can't get a true indication of the rate of spread. Maybe we will somewhere in Washington just to get an idea. This number is critical because it seems that children are seriously underrepresented in the positive patients but seem to be likely to transmit since they are not very hygenic on a good day.

The numbers I am seeing are consistent with a couple hypotheses:
Its not infecting most unless they are immunosuppressed, but it has a high mortality (low R0 and high mortality) or
Its infecting broadly but is highly symptomatic in immunosuppressed patients who get tested and die at a rate of a really bad flu.

The reason I think this is likely is that some of these mortalities in Kirtland Washington were from infections 3 weeks ago (big news today on autopsy), and were not treated differently than anyone else with a presumed viral flu. Its so early you can't tell which is correct because the numbers are small. Option 1 has a fatality at this point from this one cluster of about 2 (which is what we see) while option 2 has a fatality total of about 2 from the same cluster.
 
Remember someone who is 80 years old has a life expectancy of about 4 years, and an annual mortality of 25% in aggregate or 2% a month! So a 4% rate in that population is modestly higher than a bad flu in the same population. The Chinese data is pretty suspect and based on CT scanning for diagnosis which was ingenious but very crude for epidemiological purposes. They also had "quarantine facilities" which were essentially holding pens way way more transmissible than standard situations. The cruise ship was an older population in very close quarters. The WHO stuff I am reading is painfully based on Chinese data, the CDC seems to be doing a better job and I would wait on those numbers and from S Korea and Italy. I am very concerned about Iran, no idea why they are such an outlier might be a virulent strain.

The recent H1N1 which was the last declared pandemic on broad studies infected 70% of the population and killed- 12,000 people in the US with a population of 350 million. Most didn't know they had it (I think only 25% even thought they got the flu that year). This could be the declining mortality that is a feature of the prior zoonotic viruses (SARS and MERS included) but it is still too early to tell.   I am being pretty cautious until the numbers get more clear. I really like the other discussion on viral herbal cures, I'm making some glycerol extracts of juniper mint and oregano based on those and will do some of the others to share with friends as the plants come in.  

I still think there is a very good chance schools and big group meetings are cancelled for a while which seems prudent. Cue all manner of conspiracy theories because of the US elections and rallies and so on.

They're still not testing everyone that should be tested in Washington. Multiple people are sick in the nursing facility, and they're not even getting them tested. You'd think they'd have tested everyone in there, since so many are showing symptoms and they're housed in the same building. And they're not.

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/kirkland-nursing-facility-ground-zero-king-countys-fight-against-coronavirus/6EUXFBWWEJANHDDQPSO5TESXZU/

Medawar says he had to argue with staff at the skilled nursing facility and ended up calling a nurse at Evergreen Hospital for guidance. He says she agreed his mother should be transported immediately. Even then Medawar says he got push back from staff.

“Here we’re in ground zero and I had to pull teeth to get her tested,” said Medawar Tuesday. His mom was tested Monday and is still waiting for results at Evergreen Hospital.

Jody Connolly’s dad, Jerry Wall, is at the care center. He doesn’t appear to have symptoms but Connolly says his roommate has been coughing for days and is not wearing a mask.

She wants all of the patients tested immediately.

“We want them all to be tested. We want everybody in that facility to be tested and not wait until they’re so sick they’re headed to the hospital,” said Connolly.

I find it very worrisome that so few people are being tested. I really wonder how many might have died of "the flu" or pneumonia in the weeks before there was testing at a local facility (which didn't happen until Friday).

We need good, clean numbers to determine how serious this is, and we just don't have them.

Nicole Alderman wrote:Just in case anyone hadn't heard, there's 9 deaths in Washington, out of 27 confirmed cases.

Oh my, that was not in the news here, only that some Google and other SW developer conferences have been cancelled.

I suspect my neighbour who is working at BMW is among those that have to stay at home (one of the R&D departments). Haven't had a chance to talk to him yet, but I see he is at home. Well, he is often at home sharing child-caring tasks with his wife but I guess this is a special case.

As others have said, unless there are reliable data it's all speculation.

Here's a good overview of the lack of testing in the US, especially in Washington. The facebook comments on this article were really telling, with a lot of people saying they were sick and had fevers and coughs, but couldn't get tested.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/faulty-tests-restrictive-guidelines-presented-challenges-for-confirming-coronavirus-spread-in-washington-experts-say/

Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington said in a statement she pressed Pence and other officials during Tuesday’s closed-door hearing. “They keep throwing out numbers, like millions of tests, and we’re saying, ‘that’s not right.’ Millions of tests aren’t available right this second. People are calling their doctors and they’re not being able to get tests.”

Currently, Washington State is only able to test 200 people a day. Not nearly enough to control the spread. They were ready over a month ago to ramp up testing, but the CDC and the FDA had a bunch of fumbles (described in the article), that made it impossible.

I really hope other states are ramping up their testing abilities before coronavirus hits them.

one problem I see here in United States is there is a serious failure on coordinated testing for the virus, here in us something like 100 people are being tested daily, other countries are testing 10000 daily and there is no way of knowing the full extent without honest testing and it being reported honestly, there is a complete failure currently on the top of our government right now as far as honesty. and coordination is lacking due to dismantled infectious disease depts at federal agencies after our current resident of our White House too place.

5 Day Update:

It has been 5 days since the last #s update. MANY new countries now testing positive.

Here is where we were 5 days ago...

"China: 78,824 Confirmed, 2,788 Dead, 36,268 Recovered

South Korea: 2337 C, 13D, 22R

Diamond Princess Cruise ship: 705 C, 1 D (Dropped 3??? It said 5 earlier too...), 10R

Italy: 888C, 21D, 46R

Iran: 388C, 34D, 73R  

Japan: 228C, 4D, 22R  

United States: Moved from 60 to 62 Confirmed, 0D, 6R "




Today:

China: 80,270 Confirmed, 2,981 Dead, 49,940 Recovered

South Korea: 5,621 C, 35D, 41R

Diamond Princess Cruise ship: 706C, 6D, 10R

Italy: 3,089C, 107D, 276R

Iran: 2,922C, 92D, 552R  

Japan: 331C, 6D, 43R  

United States: Almost Tripled to 153C, 11D, 8R


Yes. The U.S. now has more deaths than recovered. Most of them came from a single building/assisted living home for elderly.

Yes. The WHO has now upped the estimated death rate to 3.4%. Almost double where it was before and now at least 34 times more deadly than the flu that is typically .05% to .1% death rate. COVID 19 is also several times more contagious.

The state of Washington has a web page up tracking confirmed cases and deaths: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus and also includes other info and FAQs.

Hi all;   Liz just found a really cool site developed by a 17 year old high school student.
Called the Coronavirus Dashboard.  Live data updated every ten minutes.
https://ncov2019.live/data

Testing testing;testing is the way forward. Many countries start to realize that now. Better late than never.

South Korea has a system where they text message bomb an area if a new case is discovered there. Everybody in the area gets one text and can go online and find out where the newly discovered patient has been the last 72 hours. Then if you have been at the same place you can apply for a test. The shops and schools or workplace or whatever where the newly discovered patient has been are closed down and desinfected thoroughly.

Italy has done 20 thousand tests, UK 13 thousand, South Korea  100 thousand, China one and a half million, USA 100 but a million tests are being prepared. Iran invited the WHO and they have taken a 100 thousand tests with them.
There seems to be an S strain, the original one and a mutation an L strain, they're different.

Death rate seems to have gone up according to WHO, which i find very strange, because South Korea and Italy are much less polluted and their medical system is of a much higher standard. 3,4% is tremendous, normal flu has a death rate of 0,1% so this COVID-19 seems to be 34(!!!) times deadlier. I hope they have made an error at the WHO statistics. The German minister of health has called this a pandemic.

Many people are apathetic, do not prepare, some say it's all bogus and lies to sell vaccines. Some say it will all be over in a month.
Others say it's the end of "civilization" as we know it. The supply chains are breaking down and we're all going to die.
I try to find out what's going on, but it's very confusing. I couldn't say for sure who is wrong at all. One day i think it will be alright the other i think i got to prepare better, the other day i think there is still time.

It might be that it's not so bad, but bad enough that people wake up and realize that a lifestyle that is more sustainable and self sufficient is preferable. I think Permie life could come in the spotlight for a larger group of people, which would be a desirable outcome for a lot of reasons.

Hugo Morvan wrote:
Many people are apathetic, do not prepare, some say it's all bogus and lies to sell vaccines. Some say it will all be over in a month.
Others say it's the end of "civilization" as we know it. The supply chains are breaking down and we're all going to die.

I'm betting it is somewhere in the middle of those things.  I think it's serious, but certainly not the end of the world.  I absolutely don't think it's bogus and any kind of "fake news" event.  Not with the number of people dying.

Definitely not fake news. As can be seen, I live in the pacific northwest, and let's just say, we're rather the epicenter of coronavirus in the US right now.

Looks like a bunch of test results just came in (they now take 2 days to run, rather than 5-7 back when they had to be sent to the CDC). Last night, there were 39 confirmed cases. Now there are 70 cases. 11 dead.

Thanks to the governor, all fees for getting tested are waved. I think this is very wise move, because most people avoid going to the doctor--even if they have insurance--because it's expensive. Our insurance requires us to pay everything out of pocket until we reach our out-of-pocket maximum. An hour ER visit is at least 1,000. Walk-in clinic is usually $150 ish. Hopefully more people will get tested now.

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/snohomish-county-residents-should-avoid-gatherings-of-50-or-more

OLYMPIA, Wash. -- Gov. Jay Inslee on Thursday issued a state emergency declaration as Washington steps up its response to the COVID-19 virus, which officials said is now linked to 11 statewide deaths and 70 total cases.

The declaration means that state officials now have the ability to order private insurers to waive all testing costs for those without their own medical insurance. State Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler did just that, issuing an emergency order to Washington state health insurers requiring them to waive copays and

I think the "death rate" would logically be higher at the onset of any virus as it arrives in each country. The protocols are not in place, and the disease is not recognized as easily in the early stages. Nor would the mass populations of each country recognize and or acknowledge they need to practice more thorough self sanitation, and self quarantine.

Over time the death rates will decline, as each country gets their protocols in place regarding screening, quarantine and treatment. The masses will become educated on (sad, but true) proper personal care such as hand washing.  

Please do not think I am downplaying the risk for the immune compromised or elderly (both my husband and I fit in several of those categories). Do not think I don't know how many famillies around the world are grieving. BUT, we cannot panic, and cannot succumb to the myriad of ridiculous rumors (that I refuse to even mention) and those heinous enough to capitalize on this with absurd virus "detectors, preventatives, and treatments"! I can only assume, most of which are likely more dangerous than the virus itself.  

On a very DARK silver lining, this could actually have the benefit of educating the masses on health safety. Considering this will not be the last mutant virus, just maybe this will eventually cause enough of a shift that the next one won't have a chance of getting such a toehold.

talks about moving from the containment stage (where we are now in Canada) to the mitigation stage.

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/covid-19-has-the-potential-to-become-as-severe-as-the-spanish-flu/

...Hong Kong has just confirmed the first case of transmission to a dog (positive but with no ill effects)....according to our local news station.

I am just going to start posting updates on the U.S.

Here is where we were 4 days ago today....

"United States: 153Confirmed, 11D, 8R"

Here is where we are right now according to the John Hopkin's website...

More than tripled AGAIN in the last 4 days to 537 Confirmed. We now have 21 Dead and 8 Recovered.

17 of those who have died are from the assisted living home up in Washington. Where there have been 83 Confirm 17 Deaths and 1 Recovery. NOT a good ratio for the elderly.

I watched a fresh vid last night to where one guy who was Confirmed Infected back on the 15th of Feb (3 weeks ago). He has been getting tested every 24hrs. STILL testing Positive now 3 weeks later. He is no longer symptomatic. Lost his fever about a week ago. Light cough on occasion now... that is about it.

He can still give it to others. Must remain in Quarantine until 3 tests in a row are negative... one every 24hrs.

Most start shedding the virus within 12 to 24hrs of being infected.... and don't start to show symptoms for 7 to 14 days usually (insanely long time)… with folks occasionally going MUCH further than that. Longest was 27 days before showing symptoms allegedly.

Highest infectious point is when you have the heavy symptoms. However, if you don't know you are sick, you aren't being careful either. How scary is that!?

Time to start making long term plans to mitigate exposure... and how to take care of family/friends when they are exposed.

I got my first 4 chicks yesterday. My daughter has been begging for chickens anyways. They may prove to be very useful. Having a hot manure producer on-site and all... as well as protein (eggs only).

it is officially a pandemic: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51839944

no further details available at the time of posting.

edit: watch live https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.4840679 over

edit again: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-51829559?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5e6914538d956f0669ae4256%26The%20pandemic%20label%20-%20what%20does%20it%20mean%3F%262020-03-11T16%3A42%3A59.259Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:1a210583-a96a-4d06-948f-8a0a45504c11&pinned_post_asset_id=5e6914538d956f0669ae4256&pinned_post_type=share

The pandemic label - what does it mean?
World Health Organisation (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has confirmed that the coronavirus outbreak is now a pandemic after choosing not to use that description for several weeks.

A pandemic is when an infectious disease spreads easily from person to person in many parts of the world.

He said: "WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we're deeply concerned, both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction. We have therefore made the assessment that Covid-19 can be characterised as a pandemic."

But he added:

"Describing the situation as a pandemic does not change WHO's assessment of the threat posed by this coronavirus. It doesn't change what WHO is doing, and it doesn't change what countries should do.

"We have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action. We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear."

What does pandemic mean?

A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease
The H1N1 (swine flu) outbreak, which killed hundreds of thousands of people, was declared a pandemic by the WHO in 2009
The WHO no longer formally labels an outbreak of disease a "pandemic" but says the term may be used "colloquially"
Its advice to countries - to limit infections while preparing for wider spread - remains the same

Edit: I watched the conference with the WHO and the emphasis is still on containment and contract tracing, with a theme to focus on social distancing as the next step.  They made some very good points about avoiding the blame game and giving support to the healthcare providers on the front line.  They are working hard to help people, taking the biggest risk, and during an epidemic, often have to self-isolate (as do their families) when off duty .  This is a huge toll on the workers and their loved ones.  

It was announced yesterday, by the White House, that testing in the USA will now be free for everyone, too. I'm not sure of the details on how that is being accomplished, other than waivers of co-pays & out of pocket expenses, by at least the majority of big insurance companies?

Carla Burke wrote:It was announced yesterday, by the White House, that testing in the USA will now be free for everyone, too. I'm not sure of the details on how that is being accomplished, other than waivers of co-pays & out of pocket expenses, by at least the majority of big insurance companies?

That would be fine if tests were available.

True. But, I'm sure the CDC is working on that, too

Carla Burke wrote:It was announced yesterday, by the White House, that testing in the USA will now be free for everyone, too. I'm not sure of the details on how that is being accomplished, other than waivers of co-pays & out of pocket expenses, by at least the majority of big insurance companies?

I managed to catch that briefing live.  It was very insightful from the point of view of someone living outside the USA.

quotes from here (emphasis my own): https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/press-briefing-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force/

And thanks to the good work of our top commercial labs that the President Trump brought together yesterday, LabCorp and Quest are in the process now of distributing and marketing coronavirus tests all across America.

...

But as the testing is expanding, we wanted to make sure the American people knew that testing was available to them and that cost would not be a barrier.

...

And, as we announced earlier today, all of our major health insurance companies have now joined with Medicare and Medicaid and agreed to waive all co-pays; cover the cost of all treatment for those who contract the coronavirus; they’ve committed to no surprise billing; and they’ve committed to encourage telemedicine.

...

The big problem I'm having with that statement is that it doesn't say the testing is 'free' for the individual.  It may be that I'm not used to american-speak.

It would be helpful if I knew what a co-pay is.  

Also, "cover the cost of all treatment for those who contract the coronavirus" could mean a lot of things depending on how it is read.  

that no American should be concerned about — about being able to pay for or afford the cost of a coronavirus test if they deem and their doctor deems it to be appropriate and necessary.

Again, not saying 'free'.  

As the Vice President said, we had a terrific meeting with the insurance companies, a real example of a public-private partnership where they agreed to waive co-pays for testing, not do any surprise billing, and also cover the costs of the COVID virus associated costs.

This suggests that there will be a list of 'standard' costs that are covered, and things that are not.  So it will depend strongly on the definition of COVID symptoms and treatments.


This next bit is better

And so today, we issued guidance to our Medicare Advantage plans that not only can they waive the costs for the tests, but they can also go further to removing prior author- — authorization requirements.  

It's almost saying 'free' but they used the word "can"

Carla Burke wrote:It was announced yesterday, by the White House, that testing in the USA will now be free for everyone, too. I'm not sure of the details on how that is being accomplished, other than waivers of co-pays & out of pocket expenses, by at least the majority of big insurance companies?

Well that is some awesome news! I also heard the other day that the CDC is sending out around a million test kits around the country soon/at the moment. This one factor will keep people from running away from the tests and assist with tracking it down. Which will either slow or stop it perhaps... though not likely at this point.

Now all they need to do is make a way for families to for-go house payments and other bills while in quarantine. I believe Italy did this in order to help folks to be able to afford not working for so long.

All this makes me think of my late grandmother, who survived a deadly epidemia many years ago. She worked in a hospital as a lab assistant. She was such a hero.

Flora Eerschay wrote:All this makes me think of my late grandmother, who survived a deadly epidemia many years ago. She worked in a hospital as a lab assistant. She was such a hero.

My mum survived pneumonia (known to be a killer in the elderly) when she was 90!  She went on to live another 6 years but then she was afraid of death. (I am spiritually focused and, although she was a Catholic, I couldn't persuade her that something lives on after death).  I do believe there's a psychological component to hanging on....