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!!!!!!!! Novel coronavirus (covid-19), Pandemic or Not?

 
master pollinator
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Graham Chiu wrote:

Trace Oswald wrote:The other side of this is that there are currently existing drugs showing real promise against the virus, including the treatment of people that are already critically ill.  Kaletra and Hydroxychloroquine are two of them.  



Until someone publishes a controlled series of their outcomes then this is just hearsay.  
There's a group in Australia saying this combination effectively treated their patients but until they publish somewhere ...



I wouldn't say they have had a lot of time to do random double blind control studies. I just said they have promise and I'm cautiously optimistic.  As an aside, researchers in China and the US are looking at these drugs as well, and have been treating people with them, and I read some different papers on the protocols they are testing, so hearsay may not be the best description.  Either way, you are certainly entitled to your opinion, and I don't have an axe to grind with anyone's viewpoint.
 
pollinator
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Well... testing is finally underway here in the U.S. it looks like. Too bad the #s are lagging up to 5 days behind (From what I read. I have tapped into a Virginia Nurses FB page).

Scrolling through the posts on the Virginia FB page... nurses in Virginia have had their masks and such stolen from several hospitals. As well as cleaning agents. They are now having to re-use their masks and same for their goggles after cleaning. How sad is that!

I wonder what the story is behind the scenes that they are not allowed to talk about.

Here is my last update from two days ago...

"The level of confirmed infected has gone up 5x in the last 6 days to 2,952 Confirmed. We now have 57 Deaths and 12 Recovered"

Here are the #s now...

The number of confirmed has more than doubled in the last two days to 6,423 Confirmed, 108 Deaths, and 17 Recovered.

 
gardener
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The Government of British Columbia has created a quick quiz to let you test yourself for the need to self isolate for 14 days or go get tested.

Here's the link: BC---Center for Disease Control
 
pollinator
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Roberto pokachinni wrote:[..... a quick quiz to let you test yourself ....



Thanks for this Roberto.  As a humorous aside, one item on the checklist is "feeling confused".   Hmmmmm....I've been that way since I was born! :-)  

But well-noted and I'm glad that BC has make this site available to those wondering...
 
Roberto pokachinni
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I personally think that anybody who has the ability to self isolate, or isolate as a family unit, at this time, should do it.  The less contact we have with one another the less this situation goes beyond a pandemic, to whatever the next scary word is.   What we choose to do in the next few weeks could determine whether this virus kills thousands, or millions.  

At this point, my work has not really created any protocols besides eliminating our morning group briefing.  I live in a fairly isolated place, but there are two highways going through it, so, in my thinking, we are bound to have our first case confirmed within the coming month's time, maybe within a week or two.

The government of BC declared a medical state of emergency today.  Ontario did the same yesterday.    
 
Roberto pokachinni
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 Here's a good quote I just pulled off of the Pasteur Institute Web Page   Might be worth a look and read further:

The duration of incubation is an average of 5 days, with extremes of 2 to 12 days. The onset of symptoms appears gradually over several days, unlike the flu which starts suddenly.
   The first symptoms are not very specific: headache, muscle pain, fatigue/tiredness. Fever and respiratory signs occur secondarily, often two or three days after the first symptoms.
   In the first descriptive studies from China, an average of one week elapsed between the onset of the first symptoms and admission to the hospital in the disease phase. At this stage, the symptoms combine fever, cough, chest pains and respiratory discomfort. The performance of a chest scanner almost always shows pneumonia affecting both lungs.
   The severity of clinical signs requires that approximately 20% of patients remain in hospital and 5% require admission to intensive care. The most serious forms are observed mainly in people who are vulnerable because of their age (over 70) or associated diseases.
   Specific observational studies (such as the one carried out on passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship) as well as modeling work have shown that the infection can be asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic (causing little or no clinical manifestations) in 30 to 60% of infected subjects.




 
pollinator
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You may or may not have come across a video from a Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg (in German, but subtitled).
He basically says this is all exaggeration, that the people and politicians involved are all stakeholders (looking for more funds and influence), that you will always find a correlation between the presence of Corona viruses and higher mortality in the older population and similar.

What I didn't like about the video was 1) blaming of two honorable and calm scientists that are most enganged and on screen in Germany (the head of the virology section of the big Charité clinic in Berlin and the director of the Robert Koch Institute), and secondly that he did not mention once the dramatic situation in Italy.

Then I received an audio in Spanish in the same vein, comparing Corona to flu and measles and accusing the politicians to create depressions and poor health caused by the isolation and shutdowns.

THANKFULLY I then received a reply from my pediatrician who is also a friend of our family (my children don't need her anymore with 12, 14, 16 years). She is not only one of the kindest persons I know, but also very meticulous with keeping up to date with latest findings in medicine.
So her audio says: The situation is serious, especially because of the exponential infection rates. This virus is very contagious and quick to spread. She heard about the situation in Bergamo (north of Italy) where there are not enough coffins for the deceased.
You might have heard about the need to choose who gets oxygen or not. In addition to that, those who don't get oxygen are left to die alone because there is not enough staff to attend them. The burials are very sad as the families cannot gather.
So isolate yourself!
Yes, try to get some sun, but some time of isolation will not kill you. It is the lesser evil.

Summary: You will likely always find a spectrum of opinions, even in Science. Same as with glyphosat, global warming etc. It is hard to know whom to trust as a non-scientist, but try to be cautious.
 
master steward & author
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This is very interesting https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/young-adults-under-44-are-big-part-of-u-s-coronavirus-hospitalizations-1.4859404

I'm hearing this from several sources from the cbc, to the bbc.  

When it was in China, it was mostly people over 65 that needed hospitalization and extra care.  Now that it's in Europe and North America, the 30-40 years old seem to have the worst symptoms and the over 65 are having trouble with a combination of existing health and milder covid.
 
pollinator
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I am not into conspiracy theories  of any kind.  I expect inconsistency  in life.   I have found that most differences develop in good faith. While Paul presents us as all perfect, I see us all as fallible human beings.  It is a moot point.  If you follow either thread of reasoning, you end up in pretty much the same place.

That said, I had one of those 2 AM  experiences last night.  I pulled out a calculator and tried to crunch the numbers regarding the stats on the Corona virus. I can't get them to fit. I am assuming this is due to limited methodology regarding data collection.  But this also tells me the stats we are hearing may be close to worthless.  I am not trying to paint a picture that things are better or worse than presented.  I am stating that something is wrong with the figures .....and it may be because my last stat course was in 1968.
 
pollinator
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Graham Chiu wrote:About 1:10 infections are from people who are infected by asymptomatic patients.  Because they think they're well, they are acting normally and so potentially spreading this bug more.
The highest viral shedding is in the pre-symptomatic phase.
Once you're symptomatic your immune system is helping shut down viral numbers and so you shed less virus.
It doesn't appear to be passed by the fecal route.

Cough induction for sputum collection is being advised against as it aerolizes the virus into the environment.  This was from a CDC webinar.



This got me spooked, but I went to CDC.gov and on the "How It Spreads" page for covid-19, it says:

"Can someone spread the virus without being sick?

People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest).
Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."

So the CDC information web page states that pre-symptomatic people are 'unlikely' to spread the virus.
 
r ranson
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Jen Fan wrote:
So the CDC information web page states that pre-symptomatic people are 'unlikely' to spread the virus.



that sounds on par with what I heard.

A few reasons for this.

1.  If the primary method of droplet spread, people who aren't coughing, are spewing as many droplets.
2.  Early in the incubation period, the virus is building up and is not a full occupancy yet (oversimplified), so there are fewer bugs to travel outside the body
3. people who aren't showing symptoms are less likely to be tested and therefore we don't have enough data to say with certainty that they do spread (or don't).
 
pollinator
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It will be interesting to see what happens here in NZ with the mostly closed borders.
If they prevent community transmission we'll be OK.
It's what comes next.
It's hard to find any actual news it's all just about government bail outs and the economy tanking.
 
Roberto pokachinni
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I might be stating things that have already been stated, but I have to write this down now to be sure that people get the info.

If the information that I have heard from our public health officials here in B.C. and Canada is true then they are quite convinced that the virus is spread almost exclusively from people coughing and sneezing, and then other people taking those droplets or microdroplets (mist), into their own respiratory tract.  This can happen via direct inhaling of droplets that have been sneezed or coughed, or... (while this is a bit of an assumption on their part, in my opinion, it seems to be globally accepted) that this is most often done via hands coming off of surfaces which have had droplets land on them, and then those hands ending up bringing the virus to the orifices on the face, where it gets into the new person's system.  

Vigorous handwashing with soap for a minimum of 20 seconds, and keeping that minimum social distancing of 6 feet away from others is helpful for this reason, as is isolating yourself and your family as much as possible from the community.  The reason that isolation is important is that this will limit what is known as community spread.  If community spread blows out, then we end up with the situation that is occurring in Northern Italy (where they are doing Triage  eg: should we give this hospital bed to this 80 year old or this 40 year old?  Our medical system, as good as it is in Canada, can not hope to manage a situation like that.  We have very limited amount of masks, ventilators, and hospital beds, not to mention nurses, doctors, and care aids.  By limiting community spread, we can help to possibly ensure that our medical communities do not get overwhelmed by this, and are thus potentially available to deal with non-Covid emergencies and less acute care.

While wearing a mask is potentially helpful to keep the droplets out of your personal respiratory tract, they are much more effectively used to stop infectious people from coughing the droplets outwards.   One can not where a mask all the time, and they become dirty and contaminated and need changing.  In an ideal world, everybody should be given masks and be able to use them when out in public, but the current situation is far from ideal...  The biggest problem with masks at this time, is that they are in very limited supply (this is especially an acute problem due to hoarding).   Doctors, nurses, care-aids, and patients with infectious coughs are the ones who these limited resources should be concentrated on.

If you bought a box of masks, I'd suggest getting them to a hospital, a health clinic, or a doctor's office where they can be put to the best possible use.
 
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Arstechnica is a technical news (and forum) website and they have a very comprehensive article on the Pandemic that is updated with current information every day at 3:00 pm.
C5CB312A-477A-4D5D-A761-1F1EC1FC662E.jpeg
[Thumbnail for C5CB312A-477A-4D5D-A761-1F1EC1FC662E.jpeg]
 
pollinator
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Roberto pokachinni wrote:

While wearing a mask is potentially helpful to keep the droplets out of your personal respiratory tract, they are much more effectively used to stop infectious people from coughing the droplets outwards.   One can not where a mask all the time, and they become dirty and contaminated and need changing.  In an ideal world, everybody should be given masks and be able to use them when out in public, but the current situation is far from ideal...  The biggest problem with masks at this time, is that they are in very limited supply (this is especially an acute problem due to hoarding).   Doctors, nurses, care-aids, and patients with infectious coughs are the ones who these limited resources should be concentrated on.

If you bought a box of masks, I'd suggest getting them to a hospital, a health clinic, or a doctor's office where they can be put to the best possible use.



Yes, definitely save "real" masks for healthcare workers, but other countries are ramping up their mask production, i think we should be as well. There is a lot of evidence that even a homemade mask can stop respiratory droplets. The key is to remove and replace and wash/dispose of the homemade masks frequently, and incorporate a nose bridge/fitting, and some non woven fibre. I have produced 3 disposable tissue paper + paper towel + steel wire nose bridge masks following Hong Kong doctor's advice that fit closely to the face to use in case I need to go anywhere in public in the next week or two. If I was sewing masks, rather than making them out of paper, which is what i have done, I would probably make 5-10 per person, with a pocket for a disposable double layer paper towel filter, and put them into a container with mild bleach solution every time they are removed, then wash my hands.

I've noticed for a while that the places in the world where mask wearing is normal (Singapore, Hong Kong) have far less transmission. Wearing a mask protects others if you are sick and don't know it, and is valuable as a population level control just for that.

https://time.com/5799964/coronavirus-face-mask-asia-us/
 
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Or, we could do the masks in a more permie-friendly way:
https://so-sew-easy.com/face-mask-sewing-patterns/?fbclid=IwAR1ubkRa9M3A4DpQv4QJ8kK_Ws1VYGmxy8Zyp8UTkg6m6dyt1DrAA7OTbsM
 
Marty Mitchell
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Update:

Here is where we were 3 days ago. It is going up by the thousands every day now.

"The number of confirmed has more than doubled in the last two days to 6,423 Confirmed, 108 Deaths, and 17 Recovered"

I live in a small town on the East coast. We now have our first confirmed local infected... which means there is likely many more. Time to start wearing the mask when going out.

Here is where we (the U.S.)are this morning.... It will likely be several thousand more by the end of the day.


The number of confirmed has now Tripled in the last 3 days! 19,624 Confirmed, 260 Deaths, 147 Recovered.

Many states are now in lockdown. If lockdown lasts more than say 3 months and food is all gone within a month. I expect mass starvation to ensue.

I ordered a mass of metal garden beds last weekend. Looks like my order will not be going through. It took Tractor Supply a week to decline it. I wonder what happened. I have to call today.

Chicken tractor build is half way done. Chicks will be ready to go inside in a month or two once feathered out and it warms a little.

I talked with the old prior military folks at work. They are in full-on garden and guns mode. They gave me the scoop on where to get bulk compost for the garden. I will likely lay a tarp out in the driveway and have a load dropped off soon. I have stocked up on a few small bags of organic fertilizer, seed, and such. Time to get it up and going now that the weather has warmed.

My wife noticed that without the thin layer of clouds that is normally created by the air traffic... that the sun seems more intense now. It may be a hot Summer. I will take it though. My figs will love it.
 
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Huxley Harter wrote:What do you think is the future of the new virus? Is the majority of the population overreacting? Underreacting?
How are you dealing with the threat (if it is)?
Please be nice and  remember that opinion is opinion, not objective truth.



The world has not only been totally unprepared but the leaders of every country have played the scope down. This is exactly what such a virus needs to spread (now one place,  antarctica, is not infected). We will beat it but not nearly as soon as all would like.

Redhawk
 
pollinator
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I hope/think we will get 3 things out of this. Listen to the scientists and not the politicians and their talking heads on TV. Having strong medical capability, for everyone, is a worthy investment. Building up your immune system is the last defense when everything else breaks down.
 
Marty Mitchell
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Well.. I suppose it is a good time for an update.

5 Days ago we in the U.S. were at....

"19,624 Confirmed, 260 Deaths, 147 Recovered."

Today... we Blew By China and Italy... and are now #1

The count tonight is almost 4.4 times what it was 5 days ago...

85,486 Confirmed, 1,209 Deaths, and 713 Recovered.


Going by what the rumblings online... the test results are taking up to 6 days to get back. Which... means there are a LOT of folks hurting in my country right now.

5 Days from now we will likely be sitting at 85,486 x 4.4 =  376,138 Infected. Sadly... since it takes SOOOooo long to start showing symptoms... there are likely a million or two walking around out there spreading it at the moment. (Just playing with numbers and guessing). Looks like it is about time to start walking around with a mask.
 
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Wearing a mask is great if you can make it yourself. Please, please, PLEASE don't buy them from the store. I say this as someone who's husband works at the hospital. They don't have enough masks. If a patient is not confirmed as Covid-19 positive, he is not allowed to wear a mask. And with the positive patients, he is only allowed a paper mask, which he has to reuse on 5 patients before getting another one...and this is while he's bent over them while they're coughing and sick.

Masks are rationed that strongly, because there are so few at the hospital. It's scary how much he is likely spreading coronavirus because he doesn't have adequate protection. Please, save the masks for the medical professionals, so they can work on treating the patients, rather than spreading the virus.
 
Marty Mitchell
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Nicole Alderman wrote:Wearing a mask is great if you can make it yourself. Please, please, PLEASE don't buy them from the store. I say this as someone who's husband works at the hospital. They don't have enough masks. If a patient is not confirmed as Covid-19 positive, he is not allowed to wear a mask. And with the positive patients, he is only allowed a paper mask, which he has to reuse on 5 patients before getting another one...and this is while he's bent over them while they're coughing and sick.

Masks are rationed that strongly, because there are so few at the hospital. It's scary how much he is likely spreading coronavirus because he doesn't have adequate protection. Please, save the masks for the medical professionals, so they can work on treating the patients, rather than spreading the virus.




They are pretty much doing the same thing up in Virginia right now. My wife said that the other day a nurse brought her own mask from home since the hospital didn't have any for the nurses. The managers promptly pulled her into their office and forced her to remove the mask. They said it was "Scaring patients" (customers).

She had a good hard panic cry after work that night.
 
Anita Martin
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Marty Mitchell wrote: The managers promptly pulled her into their office and forced her to remove the mask. They said it was "Scaring patients" (customers).
She had a good hard panic cry after work that night.


I can't believe this is serious. Speechless...
 
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Marty Mitchell wrote:

Many states are now in lockdown. If lockdown lasts more than say 3 months and food is all gone within a month. I expect mass starvation to ensue.



FYI: The USA produces more than enough food to feed itself - it won't starve by any stretch of the imagination.

There are several (lucky) countries that do the same, our Prime Minister stated the other day that we produce enough to feed our entire population three-fold - backed up by the link below. Even India can feed itself - surprising, isn't it?


RE: FEEDING THE PLANET




 
Trace Oswald
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F Agricola wrote:The USA produces more than enough food to feed itself - it won't starve by any stretch of the imagination.



This is my perspective as well.  Of all the things I am concerned about, starving is nowhere on the list.  We have a very short growing season here in comparison to many areas, and food production is still weeks away for me yet this season, but beef, pork, venison, eggs are still very easy to get and the stores are still open.  I'll be growing lots of food above my family's needs this year, but that is more because I know my food is safe and not contaminated than because I am worried about food running out.
 
Bryant RedHawk
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Since this thread asks about whether or not we are in a pandemic, and I am part of one of the many teams working on understanding this covid-19 virus, I can confirm that this is a very real Pandemic. News media are not stressing the severity enough in my opinion. No one should be thinking this will be "under control" now or in the next weeks. We simply can not continue to think that. I will be surprised if we can get it undenr control in less than 10 weeks from now (this date). Our leader continues to think that the economy is more important than stopping the spread of the virus, that is sending the wrong message and I feel it could prolong this pandemic.

So far the social distancing sounds great, however, airesols can be carried further than 6 feet if ther is any breeze at all, sneezes have the potential of sending airesols further than 12 feet which is further than has been expressed on the news reports. Staying home is currently the best thing people can do, to protect your self and others. We think the incubation is 14 days, it might be longer (we don't have conclussive evidence to have full confidence yet). We think that a victim might be contageous within 24 hours of contraction.
Coninuing; err on the side of over caution, don't worry about food supply it will be there as long as folks do not horde buy, there are deliveries available in cities. There is no need to panic, lots of scientist are on this 24/7,  the health pros are enfource and it is most important to keep them safe as possible, they are the warriors in this time. I feel that by the end of August we will be back to or close to back to normal. Alarm going off, bye for now.

Redhawk
 
Dennis Bangham
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I have made myself several mushroom tinctures after reading many reports found on google scholar. The data is usually based in in vitro and sometimes in situ and in vivo.  There are several mushrooms that the compounds have been shown to enhance immunity. The Japanese use Shiitake compounds to help people recover from Chemotherapy. Reishi, Turkey Tail can also help.  
I suspect there is a lot of what we call weeds that can help.  

Until we can find a true vaccine and treatments we need to do what we can.  Keep our bodies as strong as possible.
 
Nicole Alderman
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Bryant RedHawk wrote:Since this thread asks about whether or not we are in a pandemic, and I am part of one of the many teams working on understanding this covid-19 virus, I can confirm that this is a very real Pandemic.



That title certainly didn't age well, did it?

At the time this thread was started, there were cases in a handful of countries, and most of those only had 1 or 2 cases each. Things have changed a lot in a short time.
 
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I hope everyone is keeping safe.  Info from Johns Hopkins University. Viral load on surfaces, asymptomatic carriers, and a map showing COVID stats around the world. https://hub.jhu.edu/20…/…/20/sars-cov-2-survive-on-surfaces/ According to a recent study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, can live in the air and on surfaces between several hours and several days. The study found that the virus is viable for up to 72 hours on plastics, 48 hours on stainless steel, 24 hours on cardboard, and 4 hours on copper. It is also detectable in the air for three hours. BUT: What's getting a lot of press and is presented out of context is that the virus can last on plastic for 72 hours—which sounds really scary. But what's more important is the amount of the virus that remains. It's less than 0.1% of the starting virus material. Infection is theoretically possible but unlikely at the levels remaining after a few days. ALSO: researchers believe people can carry high viral loads of the SARS-CoV-2 in the upper respiratory tract without recognizing any symptoms, allowing them to shed and transmit the virus while asymptomatic. LASTLY: if you are interested in numbers, this link is for their interactive map that shows contraction, death and recovered stats for anywhere in the world. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html  KEEP PRACTICING SOCIAL DISTANCING, WASH YOUR HANDS AND STAY WELL!
 
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Greetings all. I have struggled with how to be a resource on here for some time. I'm going to take a leap. The fact that people are engaged, reading responsible sources and seem to be making cogent arguments on here makes me feel its a good place to comment.

I know there are lots of people who have questions and I may have some input. Most people on here don't know what I do professionally, and frankly I prefer it- people either treat me as more important than I am or like a sellout, but I'm just a regular guy with a job, until pretty recently. Everything that follows is my opinion, and I strongly encourage people to make your own decisions. I'm just trying to give some data as I see it, especially from a Permie perspective. I really appreciate prior people who have given their professional expertise to me on here, and maybe I can be of imperfect service. I will try to be responsive but I am very busy and getting more so. I do think this is a mission I can undertake to hopefully help people with their anxiety over the situation.

I'm an anesthesiologist, which is a very exposed career field at this point. The exposure and illness rates are high in ER and downstream in the treatment pathway, especially in nurses. They need your assistance and prayers, and maybe some crowdsourcing is in order, there is no happy ending without community engagement. That means many of us have been following this for months (as you can see from my prior writings in January) and trying to learn from China, Italy and the PNW here as best as possible. We are all keen on seeing as few of you as possible because we don't have a ton of solutions. I am not trying to give "inside baseball" info, more trying to translate what I think we know to you guys as you desire. Again, the data is really really patchy, and there are smart people who will disagree with me on pretty much everything. I come from more of a precautionary principle perspective, but I would say I also think there is a confidence interval, and we have to be risk averse but not paralyzed. I will try to give citations for things that I can, but I would rather synthesize my thoughts and see what questions people have. I will be available today, I have some conference calls later but will try to at least write tidbits in response. Lord willing I will try to add what I can when I am off shift. I'm going to concentrate on things that are not readily available and noncontroversial, more like what extended family are asking me. hopefully practical stuff... I'm especially involved with ad hoc protection of EMS and can give some ideas. Not data driven, but based on my best guess. I don't trust anything from the WHO and the CDC is more about decreasing panic (which is fine) than giving out mitigation strategies.

Here are a couple links to give some ideas:
Reuse of N95- from the inventor

Waste Stream N95 equivilent masks

Ask away.
 
 
Marty Mitchell
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Tj Jefferson wrote:Greetings all. I have struggled with how to be a resource on here for some time. I'm going to take a leap. The fact that people are engaged, reading responsible sources and seem to be making cogent arguments on here makes me feel its a good place to comment.

I know there are lots of people who have questions and I may have some input. Most people on here don't know what I do professionally, and frankly I prefer it- people either treat me as more important than I am or like a sellout, but I'm just a regular guy with a job, until pretty recently. Everything that follows is my opinion, and I strongly encourage people to make your own decisions. I'm just trying to give some data as I see it, especially from a Permie perspective. I really appreciate prior people who have given their professional expertise to me on here, and maybe I can be of imperfect service. I will try to be responsive but I am very busy and getting more so. I do think this is a mission I can undertake to hopefully help people with their anxiety over the situation.

I'm an anesthesiologist, which is a very exposed career field at this point. The exposure and illness rates are high in ER and downstream in the treatment pathway, especially in nurses. They need your assistance and prayers, and maybe some crowdsourcing is in order, there is no happy ending without community engagement. That means many of us have been following this for months (as you can see from my prior writings in January) and trying to learn from China, Italy and the PNW here as best as possible. We are all keen on seeing as few of you as possible because we don't have a ton of solutions. I am not trying to give "inside baseball" info, more trying to translate what I think we know to you guys as you desire. Again, the data is really really patchy, and there are smart people who will disagree with me on pretty much everything. I come from more of a precautionary principle perspective, but I would say I also think there is a confidence interval, and we have to be risk averse but not paralyzed. I will try to give citations for things that I can, but I would rather synthesize my thoughts and see what questions people have. I will be available today, I have some conference calls later but will try to at least write tidbits in response. Lord willing I will try to add what I can when I am off shift. I'm going to concentrate on things that are not readily available and noncontroversial, more like what extended family are asking me. hopefully practical stuff... I'm especially involved with ad hoc protection of EMS and can give some ideas. Not data driven, but based on my best guess. I don't trust anything from the WHO and the CDC is more about decreasing panic (which is fine) than giving out mitigation strategies.

Here are a couple links to give some ideas:
Reuse of N95- from the inventor

Waste Stream N95 equivilent masks

Ask away.
 



That is very kind of you to step up and let folks know you are here to answer questions they may have. Thank You!

Back when this all started I told my wife I still had some old/unused N95 masks in the garage and stated that I would just be re-using them over and over after sterilizing. She (a RN) started yelling at me saying that I could not do that. Now all nurses are doing that. I was just planning on hitting the masks with some bleach water, followed by a day in the Sun, followed by a few days in the attic before re-use.  

There is only one question that I can think of for you...

For each person who ends up on a respirator.... do they all have to be placed in a medically induced coma? or just some of them?
 
Tj Jefferson
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Easiest way to sterilize a mask is to make sure you dont deform it, put it on a block of wood in the oven for 3o min at 170F and can reuse immediately. The fit of an N95 is critical. Ive seen no data on bleach but I suspect its better than alcohol - N95 cannot be exposed to alcohol at all! I think a drop of bleach in a ziplock for an hour (so it becomes vapor hypochlorite) will sterilize the mask but it may degrade the N95 membrane like alcohol i have seen no reliable data. Heat and dry are the common thread in killing this virus. Soap and water work well as well, but wet things deform and I suspect the mask would quickly degrade.

Coma is not a term I use, they are generally sedated, sometimes as a last resort are paralyzed so as to get the most out of the ventilator. Many hospitals are low on sedation, and they are internationally short so it is a concern. Most are made in China or from chinese components. several others are made in Italy like propofol but we are unlikely to get any from them shortly.
 
Tj Jefferson
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I think a day in the sun (24 hours dry) seems to be reasonable for porous surfaces. I'd probably go 48-72 hours to be safe. Nonporous surfaces are probably a major spread source.

A mask will not protect you from touching your face in fact unless you are used to waering one many people make more face contact than without.
 
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On ‘mental health’ issues concerning isolation:

We’ve been working from home for about (3) weeks now, having Microsoft Team meetings every other day in addition to daily emails and phone calls.

Each person has different environments - a few are isolated single people, others have families with grown kids or babies, some have house mates. Similarly, people live in houses with backyards, on rural properties, in small/large apartments, etc.

So, to keep some type of normality, a few creative people have organised ‘virtual’ Morning and Afternoon Teas, and Lunches i.e. they send an invitation, each person makes a coffee/tea and sits in front of the screen chatting with colleagues for 5-15 minutes, or, does the same at lunch time.

They may take a ‘virtual’ stroll with their phone or laptop to show gardens, meal preparations, pets, whatever.

It’s proving to be a great way to get things off ones chest and just chill with others.

It’s all about perception and coping skills: we did a lot of caving back in the day, if people got claustrophobic in tight tunnels we’d all turn our helmet lights off. In the complete darkness you envisage being in an enormous stadium rather than a shoe box. After a few minutes of relaxing, we’d switch the lights back on and continue on our way.

Like all exercises, more exposure builds strength and flexibility.

It’s all just a mind game.

 
Lorinne Anderson
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Hydrogen Peroxide: I have 30% strength that I dilute to 6% for disinfecting. Could this be used on N95 masks or PPE in general?  Sprayed on and left to dry (outside?).

Whether using commercial wipes (lysol), 70% alcohol, 6% Hydrogen Peroxide or bleach (uncertain about concentration) how long must surface remain "wet" for proper surface disinfection (assuming surfaces are CLEANED before disinfecting).

Could those with steam cleaners (Shark, clothing steamers etc) achieve disinfection using these devices?
 
Tj Jefferson
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Lorinne, alcohol can not be used on N95. Anything with alcohol in it. It makes the filter ineffective.

Most other PPE can be cleaned with the solutions you note, I think 2TBSP bleach per gallon for disinfection. Surfaces don't need to be super clean before disinfection. Steam 125C  for 3 min. Not sure the temp on a domestic unit. Should work. I recommend that to EMS if they can get a carpet steamer.
 
Tj Jefferson
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Treatment using alcohol or soap water Experimental
Initial Filtration Efficiency (3-fold medical mask) 93.2%
After Immersion in medical alcohol 67.0%
After treatment with saturated IPA vapor (ISO) 47.4%
After washing by hand with soap/water for 2 minutes 54.0%

from source 1 above washing is bad!
 
Tj Jefferson
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Contact time - time wet on the surface- varies from 10 sec to a minute with most solutions. I think you get pretty good kill rates with most solutions at 20 sec-so wet but not necessairly dripping.
 
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