18 years thought experiment

To give some context:  in 2004 I decided to quit my career and try to make global, positive change.  I made the leap in 2005.  18 years ago.

A person observed the time I put in each day and asked

What if a group of people came from the future and convinced you that if you keep working 80 hours per week, then in three years you will have made a huge positive global change.  AND if you stopped, then there would be a group that would do ten times more in five years.

Effectively suggesting that if I stopped, then there would magically be more done.  So I would stop.  Then came the next part,

What would you do?

I'll share my answers in a moment, but ...

    this thread is really about the question I then put to her

What if the same people came to you and said if you started right now, gave up everything, and worked 80 hours a week for 18 years, you could affect huge, global, positive change.  Would you do it?  

A bit of a conversation ...  and then I came up with this ...

Out of 1000 people:

    500 would say "y'all are fucked"
    499 would say "I will do it" and quit long before the 18 year mark
    1 would do it

So then the next question to contemplate is:  If I say 500/499/1, what numbers do you choose?

If I stop doing all this stuff that I do, what would I do ...

I would do the things that brought me here.  But at the tippy top of the list is gardening.  

I have a giant bucket of crazy that I take with me wherever I go.  And I know that if I start gardening, I will drop **ALL** of my online stuff and do only gardening.  I know this because I have done this several times before.  

Here is me obsessing about hugelkultur.  There are tractor payments to make.



And chickens too










Doing all of this didn't pay the bills.  in fact, it cost.  

I built ponds, I built skiddable structures

here you can see a pond i built that ended up so riddled with polliwogs that the surface became black, and when you would walk up  to the pond, you would see an opening in "the black" as a few thousand polliwogs tried to escape the evil human.




I could build a new wofati by myself.  Complete with gardens.  

In the winter, I would be obsessed with woodworking that uses no metal or glue



https://permies.com/t/190577/wood-pure-wood-fine-woodworking


I could get back to all the little fiddly things I love to do.  And forget all of the things I am trying to build because it will change the world.

Hey Paul,
This is a relevant question. Like you were, I am an aerospace guy. Four years ago I quit my job to start a construction company, motivated by a desire to do more ethical work that would tangibly benefit people, and even try to work towards less invasive building and site prep methods. Then I learned that other people were disingenuous, slander moves faster than honesty, and paying workers supporting families honorable wages would make you broke fast. So I am back in aerospace, cleaning up the mess it all made, but with some valuable lessons learned. Perhaps chief among those is not to go at your goal sideways. If what I value is creating a healthy homestead for my family, I don't need clients who fail to share that vision (after installing a now-thriving orchard for a client, I received a concerned call about Novemberish that "the leaves are turning brown and falling!" He was from SoCal, enough said). I would rather sacrifice some of my productive years towards capitalizing the vision by earning engineering-bucks while working around the edges on projects and encouraging and resourcing my kids to dive into permaculture (my 11y.o. and 10y.o. sons have both read both SKIP and Better World multiple times).

So for me, it is the 4yr-ish plan, but not 18. Land is not cheap, having the kids bigger before really launching out helps a ton, and I am happy to make mistakes as a hobby before I make them as a serious homesteader (though my rate of instructive-mistake-making would be higher if going at it harder).

But it is a really good question. My answer to it today is different than it was 4yrs ago, and that reflects more on my own experiences than a general ideals question.

Thanks for going off the deep end for the benefit of the rest of us!
Mark

I didn't think it would be 18 years.  I guess when I made the leap I thought it would be about ten years.  But that's a whole different discussion for a different thread.


For this thread: I picked the numbers 500, 499 and 1.  I suspect that if each person were to pick their numbers, we would learn a lot about them.

When I first bought this land, I thought I would have 200 pod people that would want in, and I would be struggling with who to pick.


...

....

....  I think that I have done the work.  If I put heaps of arrogance and "I think" sauce on it all:

   - I have written a book that is a simple recipe book for solutions
         o all adding luxuriance or coin to your pocket rather than sacrifice
   - SKIP
         o the free program
         o the book
   - making gardening much easier
   - rocket mass heaters
         o 1% of the carbon footprint of electric baseboard heat
   - this massive online community
   - two dozen other things

I think this body of work solves a list of global problems.  I guess it is just boring to the average person.  And it threatens the income of big-this, big-that, big-another.  



....  I'm off topic again ...


Okay, the thought experiment ...   500/499/1 is pretty pessimistic I suppose.  Which is sad because I think I got here by being overly optimistic.  So becoming so pessimistic is my punishment.  

500:  the number of people that are hyper focused on strictly personal growth, or "the home team" or dealing with a myriad of other things that make it so that they cannot even contemplate what is being suggested is very profound.  In fact, maybe the number of 500 is too low!

499:  I have worked with some very tough people, who folded after eight months, or a year, or two years.  Or simply decided to grow, as an individual, in a different way.  They are all-in on day one, and later they simply go in a different direction.  

1: frankly, this number might be too high.
   

This is a thought experiment.  I do think that people that have been at this for a year will have numbers that are different from those that have been at it for ten years.

It's not only about whether someone will do it, but also about how likely they are to actually be able to do it. These ideas are really helpful to think about in this situation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZMBdRfbk6A&t=175s

I reckon the numbers Paul throws out there are pretty on the mark

950\50\0

I think "alien to the average person" might be more appropriate than "boring". Hand a random person a scythe and say "hold the snath here", and I bet you might as well say "take me to your leader".

At any level of the Wheaton-eco-scale above the very bottom, there will be a LOT of people who aren't getting it, and as one levels up, increasingly fewer and fewer role models. Some guy wrote that in a book somewhere. Orders of magnitude fewer. That feels like decimation (it is, on a log10 scale).

330m Americans. 1 Paul Wheaton. Bad ratio.
8b worldwide, 1 Sepp Holzer. Ouch.
But add in some of the other full-time permaculture-allied influencers (Salatin, Atthowe, long list), the ratio gets way better.

I also think 1/1000 is optimistic. That would lead me to believe that roughly 330,000 Americans actually (or would eventually sometime in their adult life) take such a plunge and make a teaching/advocacy/mentoring career of it. I doubt the market is there to support that, even if they all lived on a super measly $10k/yr, we would be at a roaring $3billion permaculture teaching industry. Let the day come! But it's not here yet.

If the thought experiment, however, is a reflection of weariness and need for a sabbatical or even retirement (whatever either would look like), I do want to be careful not to say "run yourself ragged because I like your website!" Self-care matters, and is not something that internet strangers are likely to be in a good position to comment on.
Thanks again,
Mark

If I may, I would use different categories based on what I’ve seen.
Working 40-50 hours per week, leaving everything including their home country and even their first language.

Over the past 45 years and approximately 45,000 people

35 years plus: 3 (and I can name them)
18 years plus: 30
10 years: 200
5 years: 1000
2 years: 3000
2 months: 40,000

So per the 500 who said yes, 18 years would be about 1/3rd of a person.
I have no way of saying how many people said no but I’m going to say your numbers should look like 900 say no, 99.93 say yes and 0.07 do it for 18 years.

(These numbers were pulled out of my backside, based on four years of observation of a 45 year old mission to improve and perform healthcare and specifically surgery in countries in the lowest third gdp bracket.)

I’m not great at estimating numbers, but I do know that humanity is dynamic, not static. After a few more years a few more tipping points will be reached, and permaculture/energy-solvent living will be dominant again rather than rare in both “rich” and “poor” countries.

If the question is whether to stop trying to change the world and just do what gives you joy, I say go for the joy. You’ve done enough publicizing and articulating fine-tuned strategies. Youve done enough creating Skip and Bwb to be able to leave those to have their impact.

Go for your own joy projects now, if you have enough money to cover the taxe etc. your example of living joyfully will also infect a lot of people. It will fail to infect some other people,but that doesn’t matter. They’re responsible for them, the self is responsible for the self. If inspiration strikes for creating another book or program then you can do it then, but otherwise no need to force it.

Some people are not choosing to be helped. I’ve learned to respect their choice, even when I don’t understand it, and only speak up when they’re impinging on my choices. That’s my two cents.

To be honest, I would love to see you take a year off (more time than that?) and do all these kinds of wonderful things. You have already done so much. What would you need, to feel comfortable taking a sabbatical?

I have no basis for knowing the numbers. Just in my opinion, I would say out of 1000 random Americans, you might get 50 who would sign up. I'm not sure if any would make it through obstacle course to 18 years, but a number above zero and below one seems reasonable.

I don't mean to be discouraging. Swimming against the culture stream requires a special set of strong muscles. Some of us who can't swim against the current might be able to slow the current down a bit.

we did a live thing about this

If I stop, I will lose my momentum. Plus there are too many people counting on being paid.  

Paul, I'm glad you took the leap. I hope you can find just enough problems needing solving to keep you spirits high.

paul wheaton wrote:
    this thread is really about the question I then put to her

What if the same people came to you and said if you started right now, gave up everything, and worked 80 hours a week for 18 years, you could affect huge, global, positive change.  Would you do it?  

A bit of a conversation ...  and then I came up with this ...

Out of 1000 people:

    500 would say "y'all are fucked"
    499 would say "I will do it" and quit long before the 18 year mark
    1 would do it

So then the next question to contemplate is:  If I say 500/499/1, what numbers do you choose?

Hmmm, I think I'd add a category. I'm also going to double your total number.

Out of 2,000 random people:

1500 would say, "There's no way" or "You're insane" or "I've got other things to do."
470 would say, "I can't do it all, but I want to help, and I'll help in whatever ways I can."
29 would say, "I will do it!"
1 would do it

My middle two categories might be off. It's like the prodigy of the two sons. One says, "I'll do the work!" and then doesn't do it. The other says, "I won't do it," but then ends up doing it. I'm not sure how many people (A) don't know themselves and think they'd do something they'd never do, or (B) lie about doing great things to look good, but then don't do it. I'm way too honest and hate hypocrisy in myself, so I'd never say, "I will do it!" when I think I might not.

I tend to think people won't say they will do something when they deep down think they won't....but I'm also surprised by human nature.

But, I think there's a lot of value in the ~470 (or, in your numbers, 235) who say they will help and get a lot done. Sure, they're not working 80 hour weeks. But, 235 people working on average 5 hours a week is 1,175 hours/week. That's equivalent to 14 people working 80 hours/week. That's not too shabby.

I think we also need to look at another category of people.

If 1500/2000 people say "You're insane" and "I won't do it," some of those people might end up changing their minds by the efforts of the others. Lets say that 300 of them change their mind, like that proverbial son who says "no" and then changes his mind. Maybe over the course of 18 years, that equates to 2 hours/week/year per person (over the span of 18 years). That equals another 7-8 people working 80 hours for 18 years.

So, even if we only get one person devoted for 18 years working the 80 hour weeks, we still others doing their piecemeal bits. And I think those bits have worth. I would not be here if not for the efforts of those people making permies the place it is. Nor would I be putting so many hours of my life into helping permaculture in the ways I can over the years. For over a year, that was working 20-40 hours a week being Paul-like as your assistant. For a while, it was 4+hours a day (~30/week) moderating on permies while my child nursed in my lap. Now I'm on permies maybe 1-2 hours a week, but I'm doing crazy things like teaching 30+ kids how to make wattle and daub houses, process nettle and card/spin wool, make milk paint, make ink, etc.

---

I guess all of this is to say, I think there's value in those that help, but can't/won't be you. It's not as good as if they each worked 80/week. But, it's still something. What you have done has changed the world, and will continue to change the world.

I also think you should give yourself 5 hours a week to just have fun with permaculture. Remember the joy in it. Do some woodworking in the winter and have one garden in the summer. Something fun. Something to give you spoons and to remember why you do what you do. If you burn out, it's not sustainable.

It's kind of weird this thread showed up today for me, because I just remembered a dream I had recently. It's one of those dreams that feel real and you don't realize it didn't happen until you encounter the person. In it, I saw a picture of you. You were all weak and sad with flat hair and a "normal" expression. You were wearing some sort of overalls that looked like brown slacks. It felt like you'd worked so hard that you didn't have time to be you anymore. You'd been drained of who you were. Don't let that happen.

I saw a meme since first reading this thread...

Something about time travelers being worried about going back in time and doing some small thing that might drastically change the future, but then nobody thinks the same way about doing that small thing in the present, that small efforts won't change anything.

So, I think maybe the bigness of the change is a red herring, possibly counterproductive in perpetuating a myth of "worthiness" of the efforts taken. "If it isn't BIG enough, it isn't effective." might be discouraging to some climbing the lower rungs of the Eco-scale, coupled with the propaganda of industries about recycling and "carbon footprint" being personal moral failings for each of us to wrestle with. Also maybe the "wholeness" of the change? As in two devoted followers molded in Paul's image might indeed be growth, but 100,000 who are doing even1% of what Paul does has an impact.

To have a vision is different from pursuing a vision.

This is only further complicated by the myriad of things that come with essentially working outside "the box' in order to stoke innovation/different way of life in several different ways. I can only imagine the pressure that comes from working towards that vision as not only an individual (Regulations/Bills/Creating a Plan/ECT ECT) but then as an employer where people now rely on your success.

It is more comfortable to pursue jobs/career that have some sort of path that is known how to get there. It is easier to use what everyone around you is using for heat/groceries/staples because it is 'normal'. What you have done and are doing appears as an insurmountable mountain of discomfort for an average joe. It is every more difficult to try and achieve. There won't be someone exactly like you or me, but there can be more people that have been influenced by what you have done who hopefully will help pave the path to these alternative things to make it more comfortable.

Amazing achievements have been accomplished, I'm excited to see what you come up with next.

Okay, it's taken me a few days to get through the YouTube video but here I am!

My thoughts are:

Do I believe that one person, working 80 hours a week, can make a massive global impact in 18 years. The answer is Yes!

How many people would be willing/able/capable of doing this work? Very ... very... VERY... few! I think Beau pointed out very few people would have the capacity to work 80 hours a week for years on end, particularly when the work is mostly sitting at a computer. This is compounded by the fact that most people into permaculture like to spend most of their time in the garden.  

I think the emotional pressure of the monumental task of 'saving the world" as an individual would be unbearable to most people. I don't mean to be facetious, I've always had this sense, while growing, up that my role in life was to make the world a better place or in some way to save humanity. It's often a huge source of my anxiety/depression. When I hold that feeling and really look at it, it seems to be absurd to place responsibility/expectation on one human, or even group of humans.

Why doesn't Paul have thousands of live followers on his live stream? (Besides it being Saturday morning?)

I have often wondered why Paul hasn't gone viral. I know his work has radically changed the trajectory or my own life. I think it boils down to one thing...

Shear dumb luck

I think the vast majority of viral personalities/groups is due to luck. I also think that visual social media is currently trending with "homesteaders" and there is a large influx of cottage core influencers.  I can think of maybe 3 that have managed to stick around for more than a few years.

What's my feed back? I'm not sure. Painfully slow and steady? Keep at the grind?

I can't be the only one who's life has been touched by Paul. Maybe we don't do a great job of talking about. I can only imagine the number of people who have kicked teflon out of their lives and replaced it with cast iron. And that's just one have the oodles of luxurious environmental practices that Paul has put out into the ether.

Maybe the impact just isn't visible/tangible? Maybe you have had a massive global impact already? It's just a really quiet one?

How to make a more visible impact?

I'm just spitballing at this point but I got really excited about the "GAMCOD" gardening challenge and potential mini-series? I could most definitely see that as a Netflix special! It also has the visual media aspect that I think most people crave. I think it would also hit home for a lot of people that they could provide for themselves and their families. People are seriously hurting with the cost of food these days. I feel like if extreme couponers can be a hit, extreme food growers would be even better! In the background of the series you could be documenting and showing off "Gert-itude" too!

I also really like the idea of short videos of just nice Permie things going on at the lab.

On the topic of SKIP

While I was away from Permies I got contacted by an Otis ... and I'm not even PEP1 certified. Unfortunately I missed out on a timely response but I wouldn't have been able to move across the boarder. But to your point, lots of Otis!

I will get back on completing my PEP1. I'm so dam close.

Thanks Paul! Much love!

I think one thing in play is that a thing like "massive global impact" is not linear.  It is more like combustion under pressure, where stuff gets really squished tight and then explodes.

It could also be that we'd have more takers on the challenge if Paul promised less that it would be awful trudgery.  I for one think it's rewarding, exciting, varied, and even balanced when I do the work of balancing.

paul wheaton wrote:If I stop, I will lose my momentum.

This makes sense to me.  

At the same time, I think that productivity, creativity, and velocity can be improved by protecting a boundaried daily or weekly window where you get on your excavator, check on your rhubarb, or carve a spoon.

At least it's that way for me.  If I start my days with a head-clearing activity, and end my deays with a meal with others, then I can generally accomplish far more in a 40 hour week than I can in an 80 hour week where I just press my nose relentlessly to the grindstone.