We are currently in the process of researching and developing our business plan(s). There is genuine difficulty finding information about the dollars and cents in the marketplace. Anecdotes about what sold have their use, but they do not fill in the blanks in the financial projection spreadsheets.
Suggestions to look at farmers markets and determine what is not being offered deserve consideration, but the absence may be a sign not of a product missing from the market but of a market not demanding a product. Definitely worth looking, but look at both possibilities.
Point being that constructing a business plan really demands some numbers. Of course they will vary, of course they are only projections. But you want the best information you can find, rather than building on wishful thinking.
As an example,
Permaculture Voices has a podcast with a fellow who was doing microgreens and turning as much as $2,500 a week in sales of various sprouts at farmers markets and to restaurants. According to him, fifty dollars a pound is the low end of the market for this product. Wow! Sounds like we
should be growing microgreens, right? Maybe, if you are located near a major city with lots of high end restaurants, lots of money and lots of people willing to pay five bucks for a cup of sunflower sprouts. I genuinely doubt that anyplace in Michigan is going to support $2,500 a week in sales of microgreens. I could be wrong, but I think it would be pretty easy to establish that Portland, OR does not have an economic analogue in Michigan.
So in drawing up our business plan, we could plug in a $2,000 a week figure for microgreens gross sales, based on x hundred square feet of growing space dedicated to microgreens. We could work up cost projections based on the expense of an appropriate size hoophouse and related infrastructure (
irrigation system, power for same, growing trays, water, washing equipment, packaging, coolers), expenses for delivery, marketing and whatever else should be figured into the overhead for the operration (accounting costs get distributed over the entire operation, for example). I am entirely certain that I could put together a functional operation that could operate producing these microgreens on a seasonal basis in Michigan for years for significantly less than that weekly sales figure.
Makes it sound like we should do microgreens, doesn't it? But the fact is we have absolutely zero information about the demand for the product in the area we plan on operating. We have one person's figures from a different marketplace. We also know, from his reporting, that he was located within bicycling distance of virtually all of his market outlets and that he spent a great deal of time on his restaurant marketing. Growing the microgreens, harvesting and making deliveries was not even a part time job, in terms of hours. But, my impression was that getting them sold was at least a full time job.
Rational numbers, projections grounded on realistic information, are really critical for putting together a business plan that has a decent chance of modeling actual results well enough to be worth doing. Jumping off a cliff without a plan is a bad idea. Jumping with a parachute is a better idea, but is the cliff high enough for the parachute to deploy and slow your fall? Is the parachute big enough to slow your fall if it opens? Is the 'chute strapped on so it does not open and you plummet to the ground while it drifts down gently?
So where do you find the numbers? Where are the figures on prices in an area and what people, and businesses, spend their money on? There are industries, government agencies and businesses built around gathering this information and making it available to their various constituencies. We know that there is solid historical data available for the price of soy beans, or corn, or concentrated orange juice. We know industrial agriculture is watching the commodities market like vultures for next month's prices.
As small - and generally specialty and niche market - producers, we need to learn where the relevant data for our products and markets is aggregated.
I am hoping that there is someone reading this who can point us toward at least one source for one of these areas (say, cider apples in Michigan) and save all of us some time chasing them down ourselves. But in the meantime, I will be dragging the web looking for the data - and bringing it back to share as I find it.