Novel coronavirus (covid-19), Pandemic or Not?

If this WHO declared global emergency abates and doesn't take hold, then - at the very least - it will be a useful blueprint to draw from when a more serious case takes its toll. I feel sure that much has been learnt e.g. logistically that will better enable faster future management.

A few things that have been in the local news this week

1. false negatives?  People testing two or three times with symptoms and getting negatives only to get a positive later?  This could be the kit test vs the lab test, or it could be fake news.  Does anyone have more information?

2. the virus degrades after a few generations (of the virus) so once the initial epidemic is over, it's not so deadly.  What's this about?  Fake news again?  They used the SARS example, but I couldn't listen to the full report on the radio and they didn't mention it again the next hour.  

Early detection is key. If we started to see outbreaks from undocumented sources, that would be one sign that we were in for it. But the problems of China aren't that of the world as a whole, where it comes to susceptibility to this disease.

They are facing issues, in some areas, directly relating to incongruities between their forced urbanisation and the largely rural mindset of those being urbanised, in my opinion. From what I can tell from what is allowed through their media filters, slow social adaptation results in the worst of urban and rural, overcrowding with rural and traditionally agricultural or pastoral hygienic mindsets.

China isn't one monolithic entity, as much as some political elements around the world would have us think. The government can put up a 1000 bed hospital in ten days, but they have limits to their social control. People will keep catching, selling, buying, and eating strange animals, or normal animals kept in unconventional but convenient ways. And, I think, there exists an element of mistrust in the authorities, which isn't helped by reports of apparently obviously symptomatic individuals being turned away by doctors for whatever reason as opposed to being quarantined.

And the issue, as I think I suggested above, is actually the interaction of multiple species-crossing diseases with the potential for inter-human transmission. We don't know what might happen if there's a cross between the novel coronavirus and, say, the aforementioned bird flu in Hunan province. It could be nothing. It could, on the other hand, result in a disease with greater lethality, or greater transmissivity, or both. Even just a longer period of contagiousness prior to becoming symptomatic would drastically change the ballgame, or a greater proportion of asymptomatic carriers.

I am more worried in these cases about knock-on effects, and I don't just mean economic ones. I mean like microencephaly in infants born to zika-infected mothers or fathers, or the sterility which can follow adult-onset mumps, for instance. Shit that can effect your children and grandchildren, or your ability to reproduce at all, is just terrifying.

I must say that I don't like some of Mother Nature's population control measures. They seem to hit the poor disproportionately, which seems unfair to me somehow.

-CK

Kathleen Sanderson wrote:While I am very hopeful that this will be contained outside of China, I think it’s really important not to underestimate what is happening.  As most of you are probably aware, both the number of cases and the number of deaths in China has been extremely under reported.  This is partially due to cultural factors, partially because they simply are not able to test everyone who comes in with symptoms, and partly because some people aren’t seeking medical assistance.  Reasonable estimates by knowledgeable people are that both the case rate and the death rate numbers need to be revised upwards considerably.  

Of the people who are not seeking medical assistance, probably most have a mild case, but they are still capable of spreading the disease, so should not be discounted.

IF the disease does not take off like wildfire outside of China, there are still going to be supply line problems (these are already starting to manifest), and there will very likely be some economic fallout, as well.

So, hopefully this won’t be too much of a problem here, but it’s also not a nothing-burger, IMO.  

I have been hearing similar things in YouTube vids I have been watching to keep track of what is going on.

Allegedly there are another 150,000 or so suspected cases in China right now. However, they are pretty much out of test kits (there were just invented 2 weeks ago).

Also, I hear that China will not count it as a death if the person who dies while infected... if they already have other known medical issues.

The WHO is now stepping into China finally. Hopefully they will be able to better access what is going on.

I'm cautiously optimistic right now - it looks like the infection rate/doubling rate in China is slowing. (Please ignore the current days data, as it's incomplete).  

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Of course, the cynic in me wonders if the decrease could have anything to do with a shortage of testing kits, but, for now, I'm seeing this is a good sign that the rather unprecedented steps China has taken have helped slow the spread of the virus.  I will be interested to continue to watch the cases diagnosed outside of China, to see how treatable this is when the health system isn't overrun.

Unfortunatly, the death toll has already surpassed SARS, (with most people infected in the last week or so, this can reasonably be expected to continue to rise). and the doubling rate remains at about every 6 days (far better than 3-4, which it was before). In addition, there are some cases where people have contracted the virus while NOT in China (Thailand, and at a European ski resort, plus the three cruise ships).

Catie George wrote:I'm cautiously optimistic right now - it looks like the infection rate/doubling rate in China is slowing. (Please ignore the current days data, as it's incomplete).  

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Of course, the cynic in me wonders if the decrease could have anything to do with a shortage of testing kits, but, for now, I'm seeing this is a good sign that the rather unprecedented steps China has taken have helped slow the spread of the virus.  I will be interested to continue to watch the cases diagnosed outside of China, to see how treatable this is when the health system isn't overrun.

Unfortunatly, the death toll has already surpassed SARS, (with most people infected in the last week or so, this can reasonably be expected to continue to rise). and the doubling rate remains at about every 6 days (far better than 3-4, which it was before). In addition, there are some cases where people have contracted the virus while NOT in China (Thailand, and at a European ski resort, plus the three cruise ships).

Catie,

Kathleens post from last week says it all. The arcgis site is completely unreliable as it is based on official numbers. I quit looking at it until this morning. They have consistently understated the cases and have retroactively added cases going back 4 days. I saved screenshot yesterday to confirm my suspicion. These are cases that tested positive so they should be easy for a modern data system that can censor the freaking internet to do in essentially real time. I do quite a bit of statistics and this is a tell that someone is putting out numbers to fit a predetermined curve.

Given the curve of the initial data and the added cases they are still having an exponential spread. It looks to me like it could be about 1.6-1.8 instead of squared (number of new cases per infected person) but until that number is below 1 it is still growing.  This is totally based on reports from inside that are not official. The NEJM is using official statistics which are worthless. I am hopeful the WHO will have better numbers but this is China and they will only see what the officials let them see.

It’s a pain in the butt to get accurate numbers because exponential curves the numbers from the past make a big difference in predicting the time rate of change.

I am optimistic because the prior outbreaks decreased in lethality about at this point. That’s why good numbers would be important- the true initial mortality versus new case mortality.

I feel really bad for the Chinese people this has to be very terrifying for them, they know they are getting fed crap and told it’s mushrooms.

Lest you think I am bagging on the Chinese government alone, if it was here the party line is the same. I was on a flight with a presumed Ebola case and they didn’t tell us. Ever. Found out about it from the news three days later.

This is not a panic situation in the US or Canada. Canada managed this far better than sars. Japan has been very smart. The US seems to have been fortunate so far.

Better lucky than good, and that’s true in anything involving chaotic math.

I agree that they are doing the best they can and will hopefully slow the swell down long enough... to allow the time/generations required for the virus to adapt and become less lethal.

About the only things that are worrisome to me at this point are....

1) That cruise ship being held up at port in Japan. It was held there due to 2 suspected/potentially infected persons on board. NOW... there are 64 confirmed cases! That is with a time lag/delay of a few days in test results... PLUS the incubation period. So... there is a pretty darn good chance that all on board are infected. If it is airborne now... which there are some alleged reports… I really do hope that it is no longer as lethal.

2) I have been keeping an eye on the map. Virtually all of Africa, South America, and Central America have no reported cases. However, is anyone even testing for it in these places? If it gets there. Who will be able to stop it?



Perhaps though, like the common cold, it hates warm weather. It is warmer in these places with less reports. Perhaps this spread will be stopped/slowed down significantly in a few months when we begin to see Summer.

TJ - I said *cautiously* optimistic. The available stats aren't great, but the John Hopkins ones are definitely better than the WHO data. Even if we can slow the spread, I'm more optimistic than when the exponential growth rate was faster. I'm also concerned by how long people seem to linger before eventually succumbing - some of earlier infected are just dying now, which will definitely effect the death rate from this.

Marty Mitchell wrote:

2) I have been keeping an eye on the map. Virtually all of Africa, South America, and Central America have no reported cases. However, is anyone even testing for it in these places? If it gets there. Who will be able to stop it?

Yes! Exactly. It's why i'm concerned with the cases in Thailand, Singapore, France, etc... When this will really start to spread (and reach pandemic status) is when we no longer can predict/isolate where people are coming from. Africa, for example, I know has a large Chinese presence in some major infrastructure/mining projects, so I would expect to see cases pop up there.

I do expect this to continue to spread, I'm just hoping it will spread SLOWLY enough that cases can be dealt with, and not flood the system.

I'll also be really interested to see the percentage of people evacuated from Wuhan and quarantined that are infected.

I can tell you definitively that there have been suspected cases in South America from the outset, one here in the city where I live, and so far all have been ruled out by testing. Most were from local people who had just returned from Wuhan. I haven't been following the reported suspected case numbers recently (since they're all getting ruled out) but it's on the radar.

Two weeks to show infection - so I'm thinking IF these quarantine measures are working, we might expect the new infection rate to level out at the end of Feb.

But... we also have greater risks now with the repatriation of people out of the infection zone, so this will throw some chaos in the works.  It will be interesting to see how this goes.


I would also like to know more about the rate of false negatives in testing.  there are more and more reports in the Canadian news of "the presumptive case initially tested negative the first two times, then tested positive for the virus"  (paraphrased)

Tereza Okava wrote:I can tell you definitively that there have been suspected cases in South America from the outset, one here in the city where I live, and so far all have been ruled out by testing. Most were from local people who had just returned from Wuhan. I haven't been following the reported suspected case numbers recently (since they're all getting ruled out) but it's on the radar.

That is great info! Thank you for sharing.

Half of secondary virus infections occur in incubation period: study. That's the headline of this Japanese newspaper.

KYODO news

If i understand correctly that means that half of the people transmit Wuhan Corona already to others before falling ill themselves. If my understanding is correct that means that containing the virus is extremely difficult, because people who are unaware of their condition will act much less careful by default.

First case in Africa confirmed.

vanguard

I believe at least a quarter of a million Chinese work in Africa, many of them will have traveled to China for the Chinese new year.
I hope the Africans have a lot of testing kits.

In India 3 cases have been reported. Flights from China are still coming in, the people are checked for symptoms.

asian age

Checking for symptoms is not much use when the Japanese finding is true that people who show no symptoms can already be proving to spread Wuhan Corona.

Why i focus on Africa and India, they have so many people and a largely poor population with no access to healthcare.

If it is a pandemic or not, it's just a word. Probably we should focus on preventing the spread of the disease.

I've been trying to follow the news on this closely.  

My impression so far is that within about 4-6 months, this virus will be everywhere.  The good news is, it's just a flu, maybe a bit worse than the other flus, but certainly not the apocalypse.  Given the statements that apparently well people can be highly infectious, I don't think we're going to stop this thing.

It appears to not be hitting children as hard as some other flus.  So far, it's mainly people of chinese descent getting sick.  I will be interested to see how it hits other populations.  (different genetic populations have different vulnerabilities to some diseases).  

I am not really trusting the news we're getting from China.  I've realized of the years that all governments and news agencies 'tell the truth, but tell it slant'.  China controls their news and internet pretty well, I think.  I'm waiting and watching.  The truth will out eventually.

I think it tells more about humans than diseases that we tend to name/associate bad ones with enemy countries or groups of people we don't like.

Mick Fisch wrote:IThe good news is, it's just a flu,

Coronavirus isn't an flu virus.  

Here is some information about the false negatives.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51491763

For up to date real time news and twitter leaks from china and elsewhere Plus, real non main stream media news sources from around the globe go to the Ice Age Farmers Discord app and see with your own eyes what is happening. This is real news from around the globe and can and will affect the lives of everyone we know. Please share this with everyone who'll listen and please keep an open mind. This is a major population event. Be safe everyone. under his videos and under the description you'll find a link to the discord app
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBDZVexL3RQ&t=1s

r ranson wrote:Two weeks to show infection - so I'm thinking IF these quarantine measures are working, we might expect the new infection rate to level out at the end of Feb.

But... we also have greater risks now with the repatriation of people out of the infection zone, so this will throw some chaos in the works.  It will be interesting to see how this goes.


I would also like to know more about the rate of false negatives in testing.  there are more and more reports in the Canadian news of "the presumptive case initially tested negative the first two times, then tested positive for the virus"  (paraphrased)

They have moved the incubation period up to 24 days and the RO is now at 6.6. Considering the Spanish influenza was 2.8. This can and will decimate the global populations. if you really want articles I can and will provide them as long as I am not censored. This isn't about me though. I'm trying to help everyone else. Please don't ignore this!

Quick update on the John Hopkin #s as of this morning. They usually update every evening.

17 Feb @ 0922 AM

Total confirmed infections 71,812
Total Recovered: 11,391
Total Deaths: 1,775

Death to Recovered ratio: 7.417 Recovered to each 1 Death. Which is over a 10% death rate. (Is that about 13.5%? I am not that good with math.)


HOWEVER, there are a few things to keep in mind. Most of the deaths are coming from the Wuhan area. That set of hospitals are currently overrun and it makes the death rate go MUCH higher. They have 4.946 Recoveries to each death. Which makes it over a 20% death rate... assuming that they are not skewing the numbers.

This makes sense since a bit over 23% or so of infected persons end up in the ICU. Requiring things like forced air respirators and mechanical oxygenation of their blood. Once those specialized systems are overrun, the death rate climbs.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


EDIT:
I just wanted to add... I have been watching the cruise ship that is stuck in the harbor in Japan. After today it will no longer be a viable item to watch in order to observe the potential spread of the disease. The U.S. pulled a large portion of the passengers off of the ship and brought them home.

Anyways, you can see the ship on the map. It is labeled "Diamond Princess". There was originally only a few infected and the whole ship was placed in quarantine. Now... about 2 weeks later... there are 369 confirmand infections. With a documented dormancy of up to 24 days... It is safe to say that most of the ship is infected. If not all.

Japan it'self has climbed from 20-something confirmed infections during this time... up to 65 as of this morning. Turns out that some cab drivers got it. Then everyone who was riding with them got it. Then they gave it to more.

The current confirmed infections in the U.S. is now 15. The Military has now built 12 quarantine camps in preparation for what is coming.

Speaking of that Cruise ship.

Unfortunately one of the women on it tested positive from my city.

From KSL (local news):
"The four Utahns, who have been quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Yokohama, Japan, with more than 3,000 other people, begin a new stage in the ongoing process that began on Feb. 5.

Jorgenson, of St. George, and Melanie Haering, of Tooele County, left behind their spouses, who have tested positive for coronavirus, to head back to the U.S. They will arrive to Travis Airforce Base in California and then travel to either Nebraska or Texas for an additional 14-day quarantine."

Bummer.  My initial not too concerned, has been bumped up a few notches due to this news.

Marty Mitchell wrote:
Anyways, you can see the ship on the map. It is labeled "Diamond Princess". There was originally only a few infected and the whole ship was placed in quarantine. Now... about 2 weeks later... there are 369 confirmand infections. With a documented dormancy of up to 24 days... It is safe to say that most of the ship is infected. If not all.

I've been interested in that too.  

Given the high rate of false negatives with the simple tests for the virus (there are more accurate tests, but not every country has a lab that can do them - Canada only has one lab) one explanation was that the people were infected but tested clean.

Another possibility is the stress of being confined weakened their immune system.  So maybe traces of the virus on their skin and belongings wouldn't normally be let in, but being in a heightened state of stress and fear let down their defences.

Or maybe the infection could live outside the body for longer than 24 hours and maybe one of the cleaning staff had a cough when cleaning the cabins.  It would be interesting to see if there's a link.  

Of course, recirculated air systems are known harbours for illnesses like legionnaires disease.  

r ranson wrote:

Marty Mitchell wrote:
Anyways, you can see the ship on the map. It is labeled "Diamond Princess". There was originally only a few infected and the whole ship was placed in quarantine. Now... about 2 weeks later... there are 369 confirmand infections. With a documented dormancy of up to 24 days... It is safe to say that most of the ship is infected. If not all.

I've been interested in that too.  

Given the high rate of false negatives with the simple tests for the virus (there are more accurate tests, but not every country has a lab that can do them - Canada only has one lab) one explanation was that the people were infected but tested clean.

Another possibility is the stress of being confined weakened their immune system.  So maybe traces of the virus on their skin and belongings wouldn't normally be let in, but being in a heightened state of stress and fear let down their defences.

Or maybe the infection could live outside the body for longer than 24 hours and maybe one of the cleaning staff had a cough when cleaning the cabins.  It would be interesting to see if there's a link.  

Of course, recirculated air systems are known harbours for illnesses like legionnaires disease.  

I am pretty sure it was the recirculating air system within the ship. This version of the Coronavirus has been shown to be able to travel through the air and can live on surfaces for around 5 days. Less when it is hot/dry and indefinitely when frozen. Of course it is Winter time right now... so likely longer than 5 days.

Joshua Bertram wrote:Speaking of that Cruise ship.

Unfortunately one of the women on it tested positive from my city.

From KSL (local news):
"The four Utahns, who have been quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Yokohama, Japan, with more than 3,000 other people, begin a new stage in the ongoing process that began on Feb. 5.

Jorgenson, of St. George, and Melanie Haering, of Tooele County, left behind their spouses, who have tested positive for coronavirus, to head back to the U.S. They will arrive to Travis Airforce Base in California and then travel to either Nebraska or Texas for an additional 14-day quarantine."

Bummer.  My initial not too concerned, has been bumped up a few notches due to this news.

This is sad that it is ripping apart so many families.

You know that the loved ones left with a heavy heart... knowing they may never see them again. I can't even imagine.

I am worried about the whole "14 day" quarantine thing I keep seeing the news report. Especially since they say that some have gone up to 24 days before showing symptoms.

There is allegedly still folks flying in from that region of the world and not even being tested as they return. I wonder if those YouTubers were telling the truth though... or just making clickbait vids.

Inovio Pharmaceuticals in San Diego claims they have a vaccine developed but are known only to hype their products and have not yet put anything on the market in 4 decades

Disclaimer, i am not American, the following comes from American sources. I monitor the Covid-19 pandemic (i would say by now) closely.
It is hard to separate real information from fake news, to distinguish between alarmist clickbait and  government propaganda written by fearful journalists who seem to share as a common denominator an appalling grasp of statistics. I just try to navigate the oceans of disinformation and climb the mountains of wishful thinking , cruise the hellish gutter comment sections of obscure blogs and internet fora to come to the bottom of the matter using my own "logic and scientific approach". It's a lot like trying to figure out what works in permaculture projects in a way, except it is pretty scary. I have suffered from doom fatigue a week ago, so i try not to spend too much time on the web and listen beautiful music as well and prepare and work and work in the gardens, but still i'm obsessed, there is no denying it..

According to this PDF from Los  Alamos  National  Laboratory the R0 value has been grossly underestimated.The R0 is the amount of people a carrier of the virus will infect. I have no idea who the Los Alamos National Laboratory are and if this PDF is indeed theirs, but here goes:

The  novel  coronavirus  (2019-nCoV)  is  a  recently emerged human  pathogen that has  spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period.Integrating these   estimates   and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection   data with mathematical  models,  we estimated that  the number of infected  individuals  during  early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

Los  Alamos  National  Laboratory PDF

I don't know if the New York Post is anything to believe either, but they claim that the 300 evacuees from the Diamond Princess airplane had 14 people on board which have the virus. It probably isn't true, because the whole of USA would know if it was right? But if it is true then it is important information, so i thought to share it anyway.



14 Americans aboard evacuation plane from Japan stricken with coronavirus

15 African countries can test for covid-19 now, there are 54 countries. 1 confirmed case so far in Egypt.

I had my financial investment company look into INOVIO and this is what I was sent in return. There is no Vaccine

If COVID-19 evolves into an endemic respiratory disease, the commercial opportunity could be quite staggering. Flu vaccines, after all, currently represent a $2 billion a year market. Now, COVID-19 will likely never morph into that kind of behemoth market, but it could very well end up supporting one or more vaccines that generate several hundred million in annual sales, especially if it becomes a serious problem in affluent western nations like the United States. So, in a sense, there is a solid rationale supporting Inovio's 25.7% jump since this viral outbreak began to garner headlines earlier this year.

The bad news is that Inovio has never actually developed a commercial-stage vaccine. Despite being in business for 40 years, the company is only now on the cusp of generating late-stage data for one of its DNA-based therapies. Specifically, Inovio is slated to roll out top-line data for VGX-3100 as a treatment for cervical dysplasia in the fourth-quarter of 2020.

Another worrying sign is that this isn't the first time Inovio's stock has skyrocketed in response to an infectious disease threat. In 2016, for instance, the biotech's shares took flight after it announced plans to tackle the Zika virus. Per the company's latest clinical update in early 2020, however, its Zika virus product candidate hasn't even made it past a phase 1 trial yet. So investors should probably take this hype over a COVID-19 virus vaccine with a huge grain of salt.  

Time to buy?
If your sole purpose is to own a company likely to benefit from the COVID-19 threat, Inovio probably isn't your best bet. The company has never brought a product to market in four decades, much to the detriment of long-suffering shareholders. Since going permies, in fact, Inovio's stock has produced a negative return on capital of 92.7%. Perhaps this story will change for the better with a positive late-stage readout for VGX-3100 later this year. But until then, investors should probably curb their enthusiasm.

There is now some 29 known Covid19 cases in the Country

Hugo Morvan wrote:Disclaimer, i am not American, the following comes from American sources. I monitor the Covid-19 pandemic (i would say by now) closely.
It is hard to separate real information from fake news, to distinguish between alarmist clickbait and  government propaganda written by fearful journalists who seem to share as a common denominator an appalling grasp of statistics. I just try to navigate the oceans of disinformation and climb the mountains of wishful thinking , cruise the hellish gutter comment sections of obscure blogs and internet fora to come to the bottom of the matter using my own "logic and scientific approach". It's a lot like trying to figure out what works in permaculture projects in a way, except it is pretty scary. I have suffered from doom fatigue a week ago, so i try not to spend too much time on the web and listen beautiful music as well and prepare and work and work in the gardens, but still i'm obsessed, there is no denying it..

According to this PDF from Los  Alamos  National  Laboratory the R0 value has been grossly underestimated.The R0 is the amount of people a carrier of the virus will infect. I have no idea who the Los Alamos National Laboratory are and if this PDF is indeed theirs, but here goes:

The  novel  coronavirus  (2019-nCoV)  is  a  recently emerged human  pathogen that has  spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period.Integrating these   estimates   and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection   data with mathematical  models,  we estimated that  the number of infected  individuals  during  early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

Los  Alamos  National  Laboratory PDF

I don't know if the New York Post is anything to believe either, but they claim that the 300 evacuees from the Diamond Princess airplane had 14 people on board which have the virus. It probably isn't true, because the whole of USA would know if it was right? But if it is true then it is important information, so i thought to share it anyway.



14 Americans aboard evacuation plane from Japan stricken with coronavirus

15 African countries can test for covid-19 now, there are 54 countries. 1 confirmed case so far in Egypt.

THE RO of 6.6 is the same as I posted earlier. Thank you for backing this up!

D. Nelson wrote:I had my financial investment company look into INOVIO and this is what I was sent in return. There is no Vaccine

If COVID-19 evolves into an endemic respiratory disease, the commercial opportunity could be quite staggering. Flu vaccines, after all, currently represent a $2 billion a year market. Now, COVID-19 will likely never morph into that kind of behemoth market, but it could very well end up supporting one or more vaccines that generate several hundred million in annual sales, especially if it becomes a serious problem in affluent western nations like the United States. So, in a sense, there is a solid rationale supporting Inovio's 25.7% jump since this viral outbreak began to garner headlines earlier this year.

The bad news is that Inovio has never actually developed a commercial-stage vaccine. Despite being in business for 40 years, the company is only now on the cusp of generating late-stage data for one of its DNA-based therapies. Specifically, Inovio is slated to roll out top-line data for VGX-3100 as a treatment for cervical dysplasia in the fourth-quarter of 2020.

Another worrying sign is that this isn't the first time Inovio's stock has skyrocketed in response to an infectious disease threat. In 2016, for instance, the biotech's shares took flight after it announced plans to tackle the Zika virus. Per the company's latest clinical update in early 2020, however, its Zika virus product candidate hasn't even made it past a phase 1 trial yet. So investors should probably take this hype over a COVID-19 virus vaccine with a huge grain of salt.  

Time to buy?
If your sole purpose is to own a company likely to benefit from the COVID-19 threat, Inovio probably isn't your best bet. The company has never brought a product to market in four decades, much to the detriment of long-suffering shareholders. Since going permies, in fact, Inovio's stock has produced a negative return on capital of 92.7%. Perhaps this story will change for the better with a positive late-stage readout for VGX-3100 later this year. But until then, investors should probably curb their enthusiasm.

I learned a long time ago (the hard way) that investing in pharma is very hard without and in-depth knowledge of rules and regs… and medical.

However, if I were the investment type, I would look heavily at gloves, disinfectant, and goggle companies. As well as companies that make medical equipment. lol

Or, as the market begins to crash, I would look at Silver, Gold, and Crypto currencies. Then jump out of them after the market has fallen a ways... and back into base stocks like food and such. Things that are a necessity of life.

Buy low and sell high. Silver has been hovering at just above the cost to get it out of the ground ($17/oz the last time a checked a long while ago) for a while now. It literally can't go any lower since the stock market has been flooded with paper silver. Aka... if you buy it... buy the real deal and hold it in your hand.

That being said... I don't have spare cash for that right now. Gotta start stocking up on real things like food and disinfectant. lol

Marty Mitchell wrote:

D. Nelson wrote:I had my financial investment company look into INOVIO and this is what I was sent in return. There is no Vaccine

If COVID-19 evolves into an endemic respiratory disease, the commercial opportunity could be quite staggering. Flu vaccines, after all, currently represent a $2 billion a year market. Now, COVID-19 will likely never morph into that kind of behemoth market, but it could very well end up supporting one or more vaccines that generate several hundred million in annual sales, especially if it becomes a serious problem in affluent western nations like the United States. So, in a sense, there is a solid rationale supporting Inovio's 25.7% jump since this viral outbreak began to garner headlines earlier this year.

The bad news is that Inovio has never actually developed a commercial-stage vaccine. Despite being in business for 40 years, the company is only now on the cusp of generating late-stage data for one of its DNA-based therapies. Specifically, Inovio is slated to roll out top-line data for VGX-3100 as a treatment for cervical dysplasia in the fourth-quarter of 2020.

Another worrying sign is that this isn't the first time Inovio's stock has skyrocketed in response to an infectious disease threat. In 2016, for instance, the biotech's shares took flight after it announced plans to tackle the Zika virus. Per the company's latest clinical update in early 2020, however, its Zika virus product candidate hasn't even made it past a phase 1 trial yet. So investors should probably take this hype over a COVID-19 virus vaccine with a huge grain of salt.  

Time to buy?
If your sole purpose is to own a company likely to benefit from the COVID-19 threat, Inovio probably isn't your best bet. The company has never brought a product to market in four decades, much to the detriment of long-suffering shareholders. Since going permies, in fact, Inovio's stock has produced a negative return on capital of 92.7%. Perhaps this story will change for the better with a positive late-stage readout for VGX-3100 later this year. But until then, investors should probably curb their enthusiasm.

I learned a long time ago (the hard way) that investing in pharma is very hard without and in-depth knowledge of rules and regs… and medical.

However, if I were the investment type, I would look heavily at gloves, disinfectant, and goggle companies. As well as companies that make medical equipment. lol

Or, as the market begins to crash, I would look at Silver, Gold, and Crypto currencies. Then jump out of them after the market has fallen a ways... and back into base stocks like food and such. Things that are a necessity of life.

Buy low and sell high. Silver has been hovering at just above the cost to get it out of the ground ($17/oz the last time a checked a long while ago) for a while now. It literally can't go any lower since the stock market has been flooded with paper silver. Aka... if you buy it... buy the real deal and hold it in your hand.

That being said... I don't have spare cash for that right now. Gotta start stocking up on real things like food and disinfectant. lol

I pretty much have all those bases covered as I have been doing this for 16 years now. I was just hoping to be living somewhere away from everyone else in the high colorado rockies by now. The stocks are something I inherited.

Well, we've reached the point where we can't pinpoint where people are getting infected any morea, and Canada has just recieved it's first case contracted outside of China. I expect now is when it will really start to spread, as most countries are unable to/lack the political will to lock down entire cities and provinces. Still to see how serious it will become.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-19-iran-bc-south-korea-1.5472316

Well, it looks like it will soon be declared a pandemic.  The Corona Virus is Starting to Go Global

A few bits from this article:

"For most of the past month, just a percentage point of so of new daily infections have occurred outside China. Since Thursday, that proportion has risen to a fifth. Nearly half of cases so far found outside of China have been reported in the past four days.
Fresh outbreaks in Italy and Iran, and a galloping rate of new infections in South Korea and Japan, suggest that Covid-19 is skipping past our quarantine cordons quite as easily as it jumps the body’s defenses."

"If Covid-19 can really be carried undetected for as long as the Henan study suggests, there’s no reasonable way we can lock down the human population sufficiently to stop its worldwide spread. The better course of action may be to accept that it may come to our neighborhoods sooner or later, and redouble efforts to build resilience and resistance.

That means following some of the basic practices suggested by risk communications specialists Jody Lanard and Peter Sandman: Regular hand-washing; avoiding putting our hands to our faces; limiting contact with regularly touched surfaces like lift buttons; and ensuring we have sufficient basic supplies and essential medications to see us through any period when health clinics become crowded with infected people and panic-buying clears out grocery shelves."

Whilst I note that this virus is now on the verge of becoming pandemic, nevertheless it's worth bearing in mind that the usual (mutating) seasonal flu virus also results in countless deaths i.e. even with flu vaccines!

"Worldwide, these annual epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths." WHO statistic from 2018.  

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

I have spent the last few days watching the map... and learning some more. Apparently most of the test kits passed out in the U.S. were very defective and now there have only been 3 cities even testing for the Virus in general. And... only if you meet certain criteria or having been to china or been in contact with someone who was infected.

South Korea has begun testing. Over the last few days they shot up from just a few confirmed cases to well 833 last I checked. They have 8 Deaths and 18 Recovered! Which is not a very good rate.

I saw one report that around 80 million are estimated to die. However, that is way downplaying the potential.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Something I find interesting is "where" the virus seems to taking hold...I'm kind of surprised (living near Vancouver, on the 'Wet Coast') that there has been so LITTLE influx of the virus as we are a definite "gateway" to China.

This makes me ponder as to why neither North America, South America and Europe (excepting Italy, but with such high tourism...) are experiencing such low numbers of infected persons.

Is it diet/nutrition? Is it that by chance one of our core vaccines just happens to cross paths with Corona type viruses, and give us more competent immune reactions? Is it that these primarily "first world" countries have better health, sanitation, medical systems?

As to panic, IMO, unless immune or respiratory compromised, or very young/old, it seems to be no more dangerous than the regular flu or cold. IMO, hiding at home, avoiding ethnic areas is just silly and bordering on racism. At the very least responding negatively to someone or some area purely based on ethnicity is morally wrong.

So let's NOT panic, or make racist decisions based on pseudo science, Internet hype or fear. Instead, let's practice basic personal hygiene, wash our hands properly (sing the 'ABC song), and keep unwashed hands away from our faces - until or unless respected health authorities say otherwise.

Lorinne Anderson wrote:

This makes me ponder as to why neither North America, South America and Europe (excepting Italy, but with such high tourism...) are experiencing such low numbers of infected persons.

Is it diet/nutrition? Is it that by chance one of our core vaccines just happens to cross paths with Corona type viruses, and give us more competent immune reactions? Is it that these primarily "first world" countries have better health, sanitation, medical systems?

I suspect it may have more to do with time.

The first case in China was reported at the beginning of December. For a long time, the number of cases held steady at 41. Then around mid-January the numbers exploded.

This thing has such a long incubation period that low numbers can be deceiving, especially if people aren't being tested.

(That said, I really hope that the numbers stay low, and that it turns out that there is something in first-world countries that's slowing it down.)

Lorinne Anderson wrote:Something I find interesting is "where" the virus seems to taking hold...I'm kind of surprised (living near Vancouver, on the 'Wet Coast') that there has been so LITTLE influx of the virus as we are a definite "gateway" to China.

This makes me ponder as to why neither North America, South America and Europe (excepting Italy, but with such high tourism...) are experiencing such low numbers of infected persons.

Is it diet/nutrition? Is it that by chance one of our core vaccines just happens to cross paths with Corona type viruses, and give us more competent immune reactions? Is it that these primarily "first world" countries have better health, sanitation, medical systems?

As to panic, IMO, unless immune or respiratory compromised, or very young/old, it seems to be no more dangerous than the regular flu or cold. IMO, hiding at home, avoiding ethnic areas is just silly and bordering on racism. At the very least responding negatively to someone or some area purely based on ethnicity is morally wrong.

So let's NOT panic, or make racist decisions based on pseudo science, Internet hype or fear. Instead, let's practice basic personal hygiene, wash our hands properly (sing the 'ABC song), and keep unwashed hands away from our faces - until or unless respected health authorities say otherwise.

It seems to me that you just need a bit more info.

1) In total, the U.S. has tested Less Than 500ppl. In a country of over 330 million. It makes it very difficult to find pockets of bloom/spread. I guess you can't have a "Pandemic" if you are not testing for one. Just like with how Iran went from not having a single case... to suddenly having 12 deaths and dozens infected in about 2 days.

2) The regular flu takes out around 10k people in the U.S. annually. If this new disease ends up only taking out 2%... that is 6.6 Million. A bit worse than the flu I would say.

3) It is not being racist to be concerned about someone being infected just because they come from a certain area. Even my wife... who is Asian... scolded me the other day for taking food from some Chinese folks because one of them was showing signs of a cold/flu. It is just normal common sense to use the markers you have available to keep your family and loved ones safe. If Canada was to have a serious outbreak and I saw someone walking around wearing a backpack with a Canadian flag on it and a runny nose. I would make a large circle around them. I don't care that they are from Canada or dislike Canadians. I just would know to steer clear.

Most sharks don't attack people. But the potential is there. So I don't swim with them. Just in case. Make sense? They are just as beautiful and important as the rest of the creatures in the sea.

Sounds like the decisions Iran's government has made has turned the country into an incubator. I don't think panic is ever a viable solution to anything, and this is no exception.

I think the most rational precautions anyone can make beyond following basic disease transmission protocols, like not touching your face before you wash your hands, involve making sure that the pantry is topped up. I have a half-year's worth of rice, mostly because we eat rice, and various quantities of dried goods. I could make a lot of soup with just what I have right now, and I will top up my half-dozen bean and various grain and lentil bins in the next week.

We also bake, so we will gradually buy a little more of everything that keeps that we need to make things, and stuff like olive oil.

My seed stores are plentiful,  but I don't see this causing that scale of food shortage by itself. Mainly, I would be concerned with growing nutritionally superior food from my nurtured garden soil to boost overall health in at-risk family members.

I am concerned about India's stance, suggesting that the Indian population has some sort of immunity. I have heard it suggested that they routinely suffer related coronavirus outbreaks, allowing for a healthier immune response to COVID-19, but I find it more likely that specificity and recordkeeping might be lacking.

I think it probable that it will be declared a pandemic at some point, possibly soon,  but that would actually be a good thing, if hesitant governments were released of the burden of being perceived as panicking to take measures that would be effective in slowing the spread of infection.

-CK

Lorinne Anderson wrote: unless immune or respiratory compromised, or very young/old, it seems to be no more dangerous than the regular flu or cold.

This doesn't seem to be the case.  If you look at the people that have died from this, it doesn't seem to be people in those categories.  The person that "discovered" the coronavirus was 34 years old and apparently in good health.  Many of the people that died were in the age range that is not usually seriously affected by things like the flu.  Looking at this factually and saying it is very, very dangerous is not panicking, it's being realistic.  Panic doesn't do anyone any good.  Being informed about the true dangers does.

"The first case in China was reported at the beginning of December. For a long time, the number of cases held steady at 41".  Actually this virus was first documented well over a year ago, the doctor (now dead, supposedly from the virus) who discovered it was essentially called an idiot by the Chinese government, who refused to acknowledge the potential looming risk.

"If you look at the people that have died from this, it doesn't seem to be people in those categories.  The person that "discovered" the coronavirus was 34 years old and apparently in good health".   Age does not indicate level of health or stress.  The Doc who discovered this, yes, was 34, and yes, he has supposedly died from it.  Frankly, I would not be surprised if he was intentionally infected (he embarrassed the Chinese government), or did not actually even die from the disease.  Here is one place I will not trust media reports, historically the Chinese Government has NOT taken well to whistle blowers.

"The regular flu takes out around 10k people in the U.S. annually. If this new disease ends up only taking out 2%... that is 6.6 Million. A bit worse than the flu I would say"  Not sure where "2% " fatality rate comes from, or frankly even what the population of China is, but they report 70,000 currently infected (I do not know how many have recovered) and 2,000 dead.  Certainly not 2% of the population of China which I am comfortable guessing is significantly higher than the US.  At the beginning of any newly emerging disease death rates are higher, simply because medical diagnoses, and care lag behind.

Based on the cases here (our province has over 3 million people, over 700 tested, locally, in province, with only 7 cases confirmed in the entire country of Canada), the illness was NOT severe, no worse than a cold and those infected are being self quarantined, at home, and have recovered well.  The cases we have locally did originate from Wuhan, from travelers who were asymptomatic upon arrival (no fever, coughing, sneezing etc.), who voluntarily sought medical diagnosis out of an abundance of caution, when symptoms surfaced days later.  And yes, it was transmitted to others within the home who had not traveled, so yes, it is contagious.  IF we start to target, based on race or ethnicity, that will lead to shame, fear and secrecy which will certainly lead to unnecessary deaths and transmission.  

"Even my wife... who is Asian... scolded me the other day for taking food from some Chinese folks because one of them was showing signs of a cold/flu".  Racism as I mentioned is not meant to suggest it is "whites against Chinese"...in fact the Chinese community (that is very large in metro Vancouver) is currently seeking a property tax break due to plummeting sales (reports of up to 80%) in restaurants and other businesses - whose clientele are primarily from the Chinese community.  For days now the evening news has had footage of empty stores and restaurants.  To assume a visible minority dangerous simply because of their ethnicity, is wrong; the same as it is wrong to assume anyone with a non christian background is a terrorist.  

Should we be wary of those with cold or flu like symptoms, on a case by case basis, of course, that is simply common sense; as is washing our hands, and utilizing basic hygiene.  I, for one, will continue to listen to the WHO and other credible sources for updates, and shall make a reservation at our favorite Chinese restaurant, for this evening.