what if the cost of food goes up 10x?

(I'm gonna delete anything with the slightest whiff of politics.  I am starting this thread to talk about solutions, not being angry at bad guys)

I am currently on the phone with andres.  He is ...  well ....  I wanna say "concerned", but it is closer to "freaking the fuck out" ...   Maybe I need a word between these two.  

Andres has sever topics "concerning" him.  Political, climate stuff, economic changes ....   he isn't weeping right now, but i suspect that that is on the agenda for later.  

Andres wants all of everybody in the world to know about our big gardening resources.  And then this discussion can move on to "what if?"

    https://gardenmastercourse.com
    https://pdcvid.com
    https://earthworksmovie.com
    https://permies.com/pump - automatic backyard food pump
    https://permies.com/hug - hugelkultur



What if the price of food goes up 10x?

Naturally, if you have a humble home and a large garden, this isn't such a big deal.  In fact, with a humble home and a large garden, all of politics becomes small and far away.

I guess some of us are ready.  I am growing enough food to feed 20 people.  Most of it can be harvested through the winter.

I get the impression that there is huge concern for people that are currently not growing food.  I feel like I have been trying to persuade people to grow their own food for decades, so I want to direct those people to all the stuff I have shared over the last couple of decades.  I do feel the best stuff is my most recent "automatic backyard food pump."

Im fiiine :) very glad of my life choices living in the deep jungle growing my food.

My experiences have led me to believe there is a huge difference in perspectives between those on small farms and people living in metropolitan areas I regard to preparing for a crisis …especially one that is long term. Even more surprising to me is how similar the thinking is between the mega farmers and city dwellers.  My experience has been that people operating huge farms (1000+ acres) seldom have a vegetable garden.

I have had far too many people who live in large metropolitan areas brag to me that they are prepared for a disaster because they keep a 3 to 7 day supply of food in their house.   There is no consideration of years.   As a long time homesteader, I have at least 500 quart jars of food as well as a freezer. Add to that my wife’s baking supplies. A bag of flour to us is a minimum of 25 pounds and normally 50.  No, we do not see ourselves as prepping.   This was our norm long before I heard the word Prepper.

Getting around to what I see as your point, our 11 acres has regularly produced an ample amount of food for us.  Last year we expanded our sunchokes, lambs quarters, and berries. This year we are expanding rubarb, horseradish, and kale.   Our biggest frustration is grains.  Growing, harvesting, and processing them has been difficult for us.   I am trying sunflowers and corn again this year.  Maybe I can be more successful.

Now we are getting into my favorite kind of conversation.

I feel like the core is:

  - gardening and not farming (farming choices are very different)

  - things that can be harvested in deep winter

Growing a high calories per acre crop is easy.  But it becomes difficult if you have to have a lot of discipline to harvest at the right moment.  And if you miss that moment, it quickly drops to zero calories per acre.  So a large harvest window is handy.

My starter staples are:

sunchokes
walking onions
annual kale (which reseeds itself)

Winter keeper apples are good.  They have a large harvest window.  

This year we are planting skirret and parsnips.  Both can be harvested through the winter.

Winter squash is okay.  Just pick it and put it inside and it will keep for several months.

My orange tree gives us fruit for nearly six months of the year. No storage required.

I'm very keen to grow a range of fruit trees/bushes/plants that will give me as close as I can get to a continuous fruit supply without the hassle of having to store it. And I'm also learning that to do that I need to keep the fruit trees small so I can have more of them in a smaller space, and also so that I can harvest all of the fruit easily with no waste.

I have perennial 'kale' that seeds freely, which I can harvest all year round.

The prickly pears are super reliable and give pads to eat in the early summer and then tons of fruit later. I've just given a whole load of pads to a friend who is currently living on milk, cheese, eggs and whatever he can lay his hands on (he does have rice and beans in stock). He doesn't have the money to fence off an area that the goats can't reach, but I suggested a spot that is too dry and stony to grow anything else that the goats can't access and he's planted them there. I'm hoping that when they've grown a bit they will able to supplement his diet significantly. I don't really have the energy to grow surplus food to give to people, but it's easy to share young plants and cuttings and encourage people to grow their own. I might be able to trade any surplus I do have for milk and cheese.

I still have my GAMCOD bed that is doing well, though it doesn't count as GAMCOD any more as I was given some goat poop and I put that on a couple of months ago.

I'm on the hunt for a couple of lovage plants as I think they will make basic home-cooked meals much tastier, and they live for about 15 years. Much cheaper than buying celery, and easier than growing celery every year too!

I'm not sure I'll be able to grow enough calories to feed me completely, but my aim is to grow what I can that will complement the cheapest foods I can buy.

John F Dean wrote:My experiences have led me to believe there is a huge difference in perspectives between those on small farms and people living in metropolitan areas I regard to preparing for a crisis …especially one that is long term. Even more surprising to me is how similar the thinking is between the mega farmers and city dwellers.  My experience has been that people operating huge farms (1000+ acres) seldom have a vegetable garden.
...........  Our biggest frustration is grains.  Growing, harvesting, and processing them has been difficult for us.   I am trying sunflowers and corn again this year.  Maybe I can be more successful.

I would think both corn and wheat (certain types) would grow well in your area, but dried corn would be the easiest to recover as a grind-ready grain.  Threshing of small grains can be an impediment to wide adoption unless the time and/or resources exist to do so.  We are in a historical bread basket of wheat and barley production, but getting a good crop and finally cleaned grain is not an easy endeavor.  But I'm a bread and pasta addict like many and it's hard to reduce that in the diet.

Also, I agree with the observation that many operating huge farms seldom have a garden.  The difference between them and the myriad city dwellers is the knowledge of what to do if one *needs* to grow their own food.  Most big growers could still do this fine.  That said, my cousins who were born into a moderately large farm in the 1960s an 1970s certainly knew how to utilize a garden, but just seemed to want to join in with the rest of the nation in indulging in the convenience of store-bought food.  Fortunately, they already some years back started gardening again just on the realization of the food quality they were missing.

For my wife and I, we've been fortunate to interact with several of the local farmer's market producers here on the North Dakota-Minnesota border.  Occasionally we are gifted with extra produce they have at the end of the fall and this excess typically goes into the root cellar.....where harvest can be observed regarding who stores well and who doesn't.  I've been impressed and surprised at times to discover that some items we deliberately planted for storage do not store as well as some of what we freely obtained from a local producer.  So that allows us to learn from them just what varieties or landrace selections they are using towards that end.  This year we hope to add more cabbage, beets, and carrots to supplement the annual staples of potatoes, chard, kale, peppers, tomatoes, onions/garlic, squash, green beans (this year, maybe plant dry cranberry beans again), and eggplant.  Hoping for good dehydrating weather when the time comes as well and grateful that the chest freezers don't need powering (much) when winter up here arrives.

This makes me think maybe I should start a pseudo-GAMCOD.

I can guess what I’ll be doing…talking all my townspeople’s ears off about how tasty acorns and nettles and wild parsnip and dandelions are even though no one is listening. Maybe milkweed would be a better one to start. I don’t like them as much as a vegetable, but they seem more popular for people. People don’t even want to hear about ramps most of the time!

Another parsnip tip—they sometimes grow as triennials if they don’t reach full size in the second year, in case anyone finds this information to be useful…

If the cost of food goes up 10x maybe my income will too.

If not maybe I will go on a starvation diet ...

Something occurred to me.

If prices rise 10x due to oil prices,

And you farm without oil using natural fertilizers,

And you grow your own food for yourself too,

Doesn’t that mean you would potentially get around 5x as much for your efforts compared to before? (Assuming your price is 2x the average conventional produce)

I can see plenty of people who could not only survive but possibly thrive from this.

I do believe prices might double, (bad enough) but i do not understand where the 10 fold is coming from. But if so, rice and beans are going to be popular as well as wild foraging and stealing from people's gardens.
I am doing my bit by planting more potatos. Good plan to move some sunchokes. I have planted some tobacco early, i thought if prices are going to go up, people won't have money for tobacco but be stressed and want to smoke even more. Barter material.
I believe and see most capable people are already giving it their best and cannot do much more than they are doing already. Adding more crisis talk in an overly alarmed society will not change a lot i think.
I checked a bit on youtube and saw AI slob about growing gardens..People generally overestimate what they can achieve, growing a garden full of food with no previous experience... They come across 100% sure they will have super gardens, better than those socalled gardeners, because they're winners. But they'll learn trying. And then in disappointment look for guidance. People's focus will shift to food growing as insecurity strikes and prices rise. And as chemical inputs will become too costly for many, attention will automatically shift to how to do local and biological, maybe even work with nature, not against it. Permaculture movement can and should flourish. I would also like to point out to people here that seed saving has never been more important. Plant some extra, and let the biggest plants provide seeds, share extra seeds of this year with friends willing to really grow.(in doubt do not share, but keep them for later)
But back on topic if the price of food goes up tenfold, anything can happen and none are good.

Hello,

I remember having read a paper about Cuba, where they described using every available horizontal surface (window sills, roofs, courts, ...) to grow anything edible. In the center of some cities in Vietnam you can also find surprisingly green balconies with all kinds of containers or boxes full of vegetables, sometimes there is barely any space to walk.

I think the most difficult in small allotments are protein-rich foods like meats or pulses. Maybe I can launch scarlet runner beans on the walls of the house this June? On a little footprint one has to climb ...
Whatever we do, we have to start now. I have met quite a lot of people who have a small ornamental garden but prefer not to grow vegetables until they really need to do something - that will not work.
It seems my Catawissa onions and wild garlic are able to escape the mining fly, but at their current division rate I hope to have another decade before I have to rely on them. Goutweed and nettles on the contrary ...

Have a nice evening,
Oliver

i do not understand where the 10 fold is coming from.

Good.  This thread explores "what if?" not "will it?"

Anne Miller wrote:If the cost of food goes up 10x maybe my income will too.

For this thought experiment, your income will not change.

Burra Maluca wrote:I'm very keen to grow a range of fruit trees/bushes/plants that will give me as close as I can get to a continuous fruit supply without the hassle of having to store it.

I think this should be at the top of every permie list.  

A little bit of food preservation is nice.  But I am always confused by the idea of a full court press in the fall - it is exhausting!

M Ljin wrote:I can guess what I’ll be doing…talking all my townspeople’s ears off about how tasty acorns and nettles and wild parsnip and dandelions are even though no one is listening.

Hm! The townies are already massively conditioned to buy subscriptions for access to anything. They have cash but need access to country foods. This could be a business opportunity!

I just attended the opening presentation of our local library's new free seed library. The presenter was the coordinator of a not-for-profit local regenerative farm. I kept feeling this is not what the audience needed - they were all people with small back yards or possibly only balconies.

The library manager (I'm on first name basis with her) was wondering at the end what this could be the start of. I suggested to her that considering we are the seniors capital of Canada, that a talk on container veggie gardening might go over well. It wouldn't meet their calorie requirements, but it would boost their nutrition if the focus was on nutrient dense foods like parsley, oregano, mini-tomatoes etc.  She thought that was an awesome suggestion.

Jay Angler wrote:I just attended the opening presentation of our local library's new free seed library. The presenter was the coordinator of a not-for-profit local regenerative farm. I kept feeling this is not what the audience needed - they were all people with small back yards or possibly only balconies.

The library manager (I'm on first name basis with her) was wondering at the end what this could be the start of. I suggested to her that considering we are the seniors capital of Canada, that a talk on container veggie gardening might go over well. It wouldn't meet their calorie requirements, but it would boost their nutrition if the focus was on nutrient dense foods like parsley, oregano, mini-tomatoes etc.  She thought that was an awesome suggestion.

I've spent time over the last 30 years on long walks through Vancouver Island (Sidney and Victoria) every spring, and have observed a fair amount of "snootiness" about vegetable gardening. Sort of the echoes of old-school British class snobbery, where only the "lower classes" grow food. The upper crust grow flowers. Personally I find it hilarious, but it appears to be a genuine thing. I don't know if that applies on the mainland.